Advance estimates on Gross Domestic Product for first quarter of 2025
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According to the advance estimates, GDP increased by 3.1% in real terms in the first quarter of 2025 over a year earlier, compared with the increase of 2.5% in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Analysed by major GDP component, private consumption expenditure decreased by 1.2% in real terms in the first quarter of 2025 from a year earlier, compared with the decrease of 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Government consumption expenditure measured in national accounts terms recorded an increase of 1.2% in real terms in the first quarter of 2025 over a year earlier, compared with the increase of 2.1% in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Gross domestic fixed capital formation increased by 2.8% in real terms in the first quarter of 2025 over a year earlier, as against the decrease of 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Over the same period, total exports of goods measured in national accounts terms recorded an increase of 8.7% in real terms over a year earlier, much faster than the increase of 1.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024. Imports of goods measured in national accounts terms grew by 7.4% in real terms in the first quarter of 2025, compared with the increase of 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Exports of services rose further by 6.6% in real terms in the first quarter of 2025 over a year earlier, after the increase of 6.5% in the fourth quarter of 2024. Imports of services increased by 6.2% in real terms in the first quarter of 2025, compared with the increase of 8.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024.
On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter comparison basis, GDP increased by 2.0% in real terms in the first quarter of 2025 when compared with the fourth quarter of 2024.
Commentary
A Government spokesman said that the Hong Kong economy expanded solidly in the first quarter of 2025. According to the advance estimates, real GDP grew by 3.1% over a year earlier, picking up from the 2.5% growth in the preceding quarter. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter basis, real GDP grew visibly by 2.0%.
Analysed by major expenditure component, total exports of goods posted accelerated growth amid sustained external demand. Exports of services continued to expand, supported by the increase in visitor arrivals and other cross-boundary economic activities. Overall investment expenditure grew in tandem with the economic expansion. However, private consumption expenditure registered a small decline, reflecting the lingering impact of changes in residents' consumption patterns.
Looking ahead, as global trade tensions escalated abruptly in early April due to the significant increases in import tariffs imposed by the US, the downside risks surrounding the global economy have heightened visibly. The extremely high levels of trade policy uncertainty will dampen international trade flows and investment sentiment, which in turn overshadow the near-term outlook for the Hong Kong economy. Nonetheless, the sustained steady growth of the Mainland economy, together with the Government's various measures to promote economic growth and expand into more diversified markets, will lend support to various economic activities in Hong Kong.
The revised figures on GDP and more detailed statistics for the first quarter of 2025, as well as the revised GDP forecast for 2025, will be released on May 16, 2025.
Further information
The year-on-year percentage changes of GDP and selected major expenditure components in real terms from the first quarter of 2024 to the first quarter of 2025 are shown in Table 1.
When more data become available, the C&SD will compile revised figures on GDP. The revised figures on GDP and more detailed statistics for the first quarter of 2025 will be released at the C&SD website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/en/scode250.html) and the Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure Component report (www.censtatd.gov.hk/en/EIndexbySubject.html?pcode=B1030001&scode=250) on May 16, 2025.
For enquiries about statistics on GDP by expenditure component, please contact the National Income Branch (1) of the C&SD (Tel: 2582 5077 or email: gdp-e@censtatd.gov.hk).
Ends/Friday, May 2, 2025
Issued at HKT 16:30
Issued at HKT 16:30
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