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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (March 27) the external merchandise trade statistics for February 2012. In February 2012, the values of Hong Kong's total exports and imports of goods both showed year-on-year increases, at 14.0% and 20.8% respectively.
As the trade flows in January and February of each year tend to show considerable volatilities due to difference in timing of the Lunar New Year Holidays, it is useful to analyse the trade figures for these two months taken together.
Taking January and February as a whole to neutralise the distortion caused by the difference in timing of the Lunar New Year Holidays, the value of total exports of goods (comprising re-exports and domestic exports) rose by 1.5% over the same period in 2011. Within this total, the value of re-exports increased by 2.0%, whereas the value of domestic exports decreased by 24.8%. Concurrently, the value of imports of goods increased by 3.8%. A visible trade deficit of $54.7 billion, equivalent to 9.5% of the value of imports of goods, was recorded in the first two months of 2012.
In February 2012, the value of total exports of goods increased by 14.0% over a year earlier to $259.8 billion, after a year-on-year decrease of 8.6% in January 2012. Within this total, the value of re-exports increased by 14.4% to $255.4 billion in February 2012, whereas the value of domestic exports decreased by 4.9% to $4.4 billion. Concurrently, the value of imports of goods increased by 20.8% over a year earlier to $305.5 billion in February 2012, after a year-on-year decrease of 10.5% in January 2012. A visible trade deficit of $45.8 billion, equivalent to 15.0% of the value of imports of goods, was recorded in February 2012.
Comparing the three-month period ending February 2012 with the preceding three months on a seasonally adjusted basis, the value of total exports of goods rose by 7.2%. Within this total, the value of re-exports increased by 7.3%, whereas the value of domestic exports went down by 2.9%. Meanwhile, the value of imports of goods increased by 4.1%.
Analysis by country/territory
Comparing February 2012 with February 2011, total exports to Asia as a whole grew by 17.5%. In this region, strong increases were registered in the values of total exports to most major destinations, in particular Vietnam (+94.2%), Malaysia (+46.2%), Taiwan (+22.5%), the mainland of China (the Mainland) (+17.3%) and Japan (+15.5%).
Apart from destinations in Asia, increase was also registered in the value of total exports to the USA (+8.3%). Concurrently, decreases were registered in the values of total exports to some major destinations, in particular Germany (-15.7%) and the United Kingdom (-7.2%).
Over the same period of comparison, significant increases were registered in the values of imports from most major suppliers, in particular Switzerland (+37.6%), the USA (+35.8%), the Mainland (+28.1%), India (+27.8%) and Malaysia (+11.8%).
For the first two months of 2012 as a whole, year-on-year increases were registered in the values of total exports to some major destinations, in particular Vietnam (+42.2%), Japan (+4.5%), Korea (+3.0%), the Mainland (+1.1%) and the USA (+0.8%). However, year-on-year decreases were registered in the values of total exports to India (-12.6%), Singapore (-12.5%) and Germany (-11.7%).
Over the same period of comparison, year-on-year increases were registered in the values of imports from some major suppliers, in particular Switzerland (+47.8%), the USA (+10.5%), India (+9.5%) and the Mainland (+5.6%). On the other hand, year-on-year decreases were registered in the values of imports from Thailand (-24.8%), Taiwan (-10.5%) and Japan (-5.6%).
Analysis by major commodity
Comparing February 2012 with February 2011, increases were registered in the values of total exports of most principal commodity divisions, in particular "telecommunications and sound recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment" (by $9.7 billion or 24.5%), "office machines and automatic data processing machines" (by $6.7 billion or 23.4%) and "non-metallic mineral manufactures" (by $4.3 billion or 54.2%). However, decrease was registered in the value of total exports of "articles of apparel and clothing accessories" (by $2.7 billion or -25.6%).
Over the same period of comparison, increases were registered in the values of imports of all principal commodity divisions, in particular "telecommunications and sound recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment" (by $12.0 billion or 35.8%), "miscellaneous manufactured articles (mainly baby carriages, toys, games and sporting goods)" (by $6.1 billion or 38.3%) and "office machines and automatic data processing machines" (by $5.8 billion or 22.5%).
For the first two months of 2012 as a whole, year-on-year increases were registered in the values of total exports of some principal commodity divisions, in particular "telecommunications and sound recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment" (by $9.3 billion or 10.5%), "non-metallic mineral manufactures" (by $4.9 billion or 27.7%) and "office machines and automatic data processing machines" (by $3.4 billion or 5.3%). However, year-on-year decreases were registered in the values of total exports of "electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, and electrical parts thereof" (by $3.6 billion or -2.5%) and "articles of apparel and clothing accessories" (by $2.4 billion or -8.1%).
Over the same period of comparison, year-on-year increases were registered in the values of imports of some principal commodity divisions, in particular "telecommunications and sound recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment" (by $15.8 billion or 20.6%), "miscellaneous manufactured articles (mainly baby carriages, toys, games and sporting goods)" (by $6.9 billion or 19.8%) and "office machines and automatic data processing machines" (by $5.5 billion or 9.7%). However, year-on-year decreases were registered in the values of imports of "electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, and electrical parts thereof" (by $14.8 billion or -9.5%), "textile yarn, fabrics, made-up articles and related products" (by $1.9 billion or -15.9%) and "articles of apparel and clothing accessories" (by $1.2 billion or -6.3%).
Commentary
A Government spokesman noted that merchandise exports rebounded in February on a year-on-year comparison, largely due to the difference in timing of the Lunar New Year in 2011 and 2012. Taking the first two months of 2012 together to remove such a distortion, export growth was still rather weak, decelerating notably from that in the fourth quarter of last year, reflecting the strong headwinds in the external environment.
The spokesman commented further that looking ahead, while the US economy has fared better-than-expected and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis has stabilised somewhat lately, the still-weak fundamentals of these advanced economies would continue to weigh on their import demand. Signs of negative spillovers to the Asian region have also been increasingly evident. In view of the above developments, Hong Kong's export outlook remains uncertain in the near term. We will continue to monitor the situation closely.
Further information
Table 1 at the annex presents the analysis of external merchandise trade statistics for February 2012. Table 2 presents the original monthly trade statistics from January 2009 to February 2012, and Table 3 gives the seasonally adjusted series for the same period.
The values of total exports of goods to ten main destinations for February 2012 are shown in Table 4, whereas the values of imports of goods from ten main suppliers are given in Table 5.
Table 6 and 7 show the values of total exports and imports of ten principal commodity divisions for February 2012.
All the merchandise trade statistics described here are measured at current prices and no account has been taken of changes in prices between the periods of comparison. A separate analysis of the volume and price movements of external merchandise trade for February 2012 will be released in mid-April 2012.
The February 2012 issue of "Hong Kong External Merchandise Trade" contains detailed analysis on the performance of Hong Kong's external merchandise trade in February 2012. Detailed merchandise trade statistics analysed by commodity and by country/territory are published in the February 2012 issue of "Hong Kong Merchandise Trade Statistics". The two publications will be available in mid-April 2012. Users can download them free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/statistical_report/external_trade/index.jsp).
Enquiries on merchandise trade statistics may be directed to Trade Analysis Section (1) of the C&SD (Tel.: 2582 5042).
Ends/Tuesday, March 27, 2012
Issued at HKT 16:30
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