| On 1 July 2002, the Chief Executive announced in his Inaugural
Speech: "There is an urgent need for development of a comprehensive
population policy, and we will work on this within this year.
This population policy will be designed to fit Hong Kong's long-term
social and economic development, will complement family requirements,
and will address the interests of different sectors in our community." |
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| 2. Following the Chief Executive's announcement, the Chief
Secretary for Administration, who was tasked to oversee the
development of the proposed population policy, set up a Task
Force on Population Policy which he chaired with members from
all relevant Bureaux and Departments. |
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| 3. Various policies impact directly or indirectly on the HKSAR's
demography. The immediate tasks of the Task Force focus on identifying
the major challenges to Hong Kong arising from its demographic
trends and characteristics, setting the objective of a population
policy and recommending a set of coherent policy initiatives
which the Administration can explore in the short and medium
term. Population is a highly complex subject. The Task Force
has worked to a very tight time schedule that does not allow
it to delve deeply into some of the recommendations. The Task
Force has identified the issues for more detailed examination
under less time pressure. |
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HONG KONG'S POPULATION: CHARACTERISTICS
AND TRENDS (CHAPTER II) |
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| Our Population |
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| 4. In 2001, Hong Kong's total fertility rate reached an extremely
low level of 927 children per 1 000 women, well below the replacement
level of 2 100 children per 1 000 women. At the same time, life
expectancy at birth is projected to reach 82 for men and 88
for women in 2031, one of the longest in the world. |
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| 5. Hong Kong's population is aging. A quarter of its population
is expected to be aged 65 or above by 2031. More significantly,
the size of the workforce will shrink as the prime working age
population declines. |
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| 6. In terms of education attainment, some 52% of the population
aged 15 and over had at least upper secondary school education,
and some 13% had tertiary education in 2001. |
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| Population Flow |
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| Inflow |
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| New Arrivals from the Mainland - the
One Way Permit Scheme |
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| 7. From 1997 to 2001, new arrivals from the Mainland admitted
under the One Way Permit (OWP) Scheme made up some 93% of our
population growth. In the period between 1983 and 2001, a total
of over 720 000 Mainland new arrivals were admitted under the
scheme, which was equivalent to about 11% of the population
of 6.72 million in 2001. |
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| 8. According to data provided by the Mainland authorities,
the total number of applicants under the OWP Scheme was around
168 000 as at August 2002. |
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| 9. We do not have the details of these applications. An analysis
of the profiles of new arrivals admitted from 1997 to 2001 shows
that the majority of them were children with right of abode
in Hong Kong and Mainland spouses. Among them, more were of
working age (20-59) than aged 19 and below. The adult new arrivals
were generally not well educated and possessed little working
experience. On the other hand, they provide a steady supply
to the labour force, contributing to some 30% of the annual
growth from between end-1999 and end-2001. They made up 2.1%
of the total labour force in the third quarter of 2002. As far
as the overall unemployment rate is concerned, there is little
difference whether it is calculated with or without the unemployed
new arrivals due to their relatively low number. |
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| 10. An academic study found that there were few significant
differences in university attendance between native-born children
and Mainlanders who came to Hong Kong before the age of nine.
This suggests that the younger a Mainland child is admitted,
the easier he or she will adapt to Hong Kong's education system. |
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| Skilled Immigrants |
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| 11. Various schemes admit people from the Mainland and overseas.
For the admission of foreign professionals, there are no quota
or job sector restrictions. Successful applicants are allowed
to bring along their dependants. Admission schemes for Mainlanders
are more restrictive. |
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| Transient Population: Foreign Domestic
Helpers and Imported Workers Under the Supplementary Labour
Scheme |
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| 12. Hong Kong has a significant transient population composed
of imported workers employed predominantly as domestic helpers.
The proportion of foreign domestic helpers (FDHs) in the total
labour supply leaped from 1% in 1982 to 7% in 2001. There is
no clear indication that the admission of FDHs has been affected
by the economic downturn in the past few years. |
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| 13. A survey in October 2000 found that FDHs and local domestic
helpers (LDHs) constituted two distinct markets in terms of
supply and demand, with LDHs preferring part-time jobs and households
requiring full-time domestic helpers preferring FDHs. |
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| Outflow |
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| Emigration |
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| 14. The number emigrating from Hong Kong per year has declined
from 66 200 in 1992 to just 10 500 in 2002. The accuracy of
these figures have to be treated with caution as an unknown
but certainly significant number have since returned, and these
Hong Kong residents can readily re-emigrate as they already
have their foreign passports or permanent resident status elsewhere.
However, the recent rising unemployment does not seem to have
given rise to increased emigration. |
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| 15. A considerable proportion of the emigrants from Hong Kong
was made up of the highly educated and the skilled. |
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| Hong Kong Residents Moving to the Mainland |
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| 16. Another outflow is the growing number of Hong Kong residents
living, working or retiring in the Mainland, particularly in
the Pearl River Delta. But there is no evidence that retiring
across the boundary has become a significant trend, although
this may change in the future. |
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| CONCERNS AND CHALLENGES (CHAPTER III) |
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| Quantity-related Demographic Problems |
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| 17. When fertility drops to a particularly low level below
replacement and the mortality rate remains low, the pace of
population aging inevitably quickens. The overall dependency
ratio is projected to rise from 381 in 2002 to 562 in 2031.
The elderly dependency ratio is expected to increase gradually
from 158 in 2002 to 198 in 2016, followed by a marked rise to
380 in 2031. |
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| 18. The Census & Statistics Department's population projections
projected more deaths than births each year from 2023 onwards.
The population would then experience negative natural increase
(i.e. more deaths than births) and de-population would arise
if there were no net inward migration. This scenario
implies (a) an accelerated "greying" of Hong Kong;
and (b) the onset in 2023 of a very painful process of de-population
that could well last longer than half a century, resulting in
a smaller and older population with significantly weaker economic
potential. |
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| Adverse Economic Effects of Having
a Large Elderly Population Group |
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| 19. One serious economic problem caused by an accelerated
increase in the number of elderly people in the population is
social security payments. More than 600 000 persons aged 60
or above receive financial assistance through either the Comprehensive
Social Security Assistance (CSSA) or the Old Age Allowance (OAA).
Both schemes are funded entirely from General Revenue and non-contributory.
Steep increases in healthcare expenditure form another serious
economic problem caused by an aging population. |
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| 20. As society spends more resources on caring for its elderly
population, fewer resources can be devoted to productive investment
or to the younger members of society. The result will be a prolonged
period of slower economic growth, frustrated expectations and
declining competitiveness against other economies with younger
populations. |
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| Economic Adversities Likely to Arise
in a Process of De-population |
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| 21. The process of de-population implies certain significant,
though not always obvious, losses of economic efficiency. It
will also imply a drop in private and public investment in many
markets. A shrinking population will make it difficult to accumulate
certain kinds of high-end human capital that require a critical
mass to be functional. This will be much to the detriment of
our efforts to nurture a knowledge-based economy. |
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| Quality-related Demographic Problems
|
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| 22. The growth of our population relies much on immigration,
the bulk of which is admitted through the OWP Scheme. As a scheme
mainly devised to facilitate family reunion, it is neither appropriate
nor feasible to impose screening criteria. We have very little
control over the quality of our intake. The task of training
and upgrading the skills of adult new arrivals to meet the demand
of our economy poses a serious challenge for Hong Kong. |
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| 23. Notwithstanding vast expansions in basic and higher education,
quality is also a problem for the local or indigenous population.
With the advent of a knowledge-based economy, ensuring that
Hong Kong's human capital can meet the changing needs of the
economy is key to Hong Kong's future success. |
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| 24. Although Hong Kong adopts an open door policy towards
talent and professionals from overseas, our policy on the entry
of Mainland talent and professionals is still rather restrictive.
The restrictions have been blamed for the very small number
of successful admissions so far. |
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| Eligibility for Subsidized Public Services |
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| 25. Many public services in Hong Kong are heavily subsidized.
While some require prospective applicants to meet a residence
requirement, others do not. For public healthcare services,
the heavily subsidized services are available not only to permanent
residents, but also foreign domestic helpers, migrant workers
and Two Way Permit holders who are spouses or children under
11 years of age of Hong Kong Identity Card holders. There is
considerable discrepancy in the eligibility for various privileges
among residents with different lengths of residence. |
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| 26. We need to ensure that there is a rational basis on which
our social resources are allocated, in particular against our
current austere fiscal situation when available resources are
increasingly limited and demand is continuously rising. |
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| Family Unity and Social Integration |
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| 27. The discrepancy in the arrival times in Hong Kong between
the Certificate of Entitlement (CoE) children and their Mainland
parents often gives rise to separated families. The situation
has to be properly addressed. Similarly, many immigrants of
non-Chinese ethnicity envisage their future and that of their
families as being in Hong Kong. The Government will, in collaboration
with NGOs, continue to identify and address their special needs. |
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| 28. From a wider perspective, the growing proportion of immigrants
born outside Hong Kong will inevitably have a profound impact
on the social and economic structure of Hong Kong. It is imperative
that efforts be made not only by the Government, but also by
every quarter of the community, to promote closer integration
of new immigrants into society. |
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| POLICY OBJECTIVE (CHAPTER IV) |
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| 29. The report published by the Commission on Strategic Development
in 2000 has articulated the vision of Hong Kong. It says : "The
implementation of Hong Kong's long-term vision should also be
guided by a number of overarching goals, including enhancing
income and living standards for all members of society; ensuring
that Hong Kong becomes the most attractive major city in Asia
in which to live and work; developing a socially cohesive and
stable society that recognises that the community's diversity
strengthens its cosmopolitan outlook; contributing to the modernisation
of China while also supporting Hong Kong's long-term development."
The key objective of Hong Kong's population policy is to secure
and nurture a population which sustains our development as a
knowledge-based economy. |
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| 30. We believe that the proposed population policy should
strive to improve the overall quality of our population to meet
our vision of Hong Kong as a knowledge-based economy and world-class
city. In this context, we should also aim to redress population
aging, foster the concept of active and healthy aging, promote
social integration of new arrivals, and most of all, ensure
the long-term sustainability of our economic growth. We believe
the achievement of these goals will lead to a steady improvement
of the standard of living of our people. |
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| 31. We consider that any population policy for the HKSAR should
move away from the idea that there is a simple optimum population
both in terms of size and composition. It will be more useful
to ensure that there is sufficient flexibility built into the
future policy formulation and implementation processes for Hong
Kong to respond quickly to changing demographic conditions and
market situations. Further, policy interventions which seek
to influence either the level or quality of population usually
take effect over a long period. Any population policy cannot
produce immediate effects. |
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| POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS (CHAPTER V) |
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| 32. In the light of the concerns raised in Chapter III and
within the limited time available, the Task Force has attempted
to review all relevant policies which directly or indirectly
impact on Hong Kong's demography and to recommend a number of
policy measures to be taken in the short and medium term. Many
of them are necessarily tentative, requiring much longer time
for thorough research and refinement. Details of the Task Force's
recommendations are summarised below. |
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| The One Way Permit Scheme |
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| Recommendations: |
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To strictly enforce the allocation of the sub-quota for
CoE children.
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To continue with the recently introduced improvement of
allowing CoE children whose right of abode has been verified
to choose when to leave the Mainland and settle in Hong Kong
so that they can come to Hong Kong together with their Mainland
parents if they so wish.
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To continue with the current practice of deploying unused
places in the "long-separated spouses" category
for spouses in Guangdong and their accompanying children.
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To continue with the current practice whereby the OWP issuing
authorities in the Mainland take meticulous measures to verify
the claims by OWP applicants and, if necessary, confirm with
the SARG the validity of those parts of their claims involving
Hong Kong residents on a case by case basis.
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To encourage the Mainland spouses to visit Hong Kong under
the Two Way Permit Scheme, as soon as they have applied for
an OWP, so that they may familiarise themselves with Hong
Kong's way of life and the living conditions of their Hong
Kong families, thus helping them decide whether they wish
to settle in Hong Kong.
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To propose to the Mainland authorities to change their relevant
legislation in order to cancel the current entry category
for inheritance under the unspecified sub-quota.
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To review the daily 150-OWP quota and the quota allocation
among the three categories regularly with a view to reducing
the quota at some stage when demand falls.
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| Training and Other Needs of New Arrivals |
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| Recommendations: |
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To continue to provide and develop appropriate programmes
to address the training needs of new arrivals of different
age-groups.
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To foster closer partnership between the Government and
NGOs to identify and address the needs of new arrivals in
Hong Kong.
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| Education and Manpower Policy |
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| Recommendations: |
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To continue to pursue extensive programmes to upgrade the
educational attainment of our population at all levels.
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To promote and facilitate skills upgrading and life-long
education.
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To adopt a strategic, responsive and co-ordinated approach
to manpower planning and development to meet the changing
demands of the economy.
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| Admission of Mainland Professionals
and Talent |
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| Recommendations: |
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To align conditions of admission for Mainland professionals
and talent with those coming from elsewhere as far as possible.
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To provide more flexibility and incentives to tertiary institutions
to attract academics and students from the Mainland and overseas.
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To continue to improve arrangements for Mainland businessmen
to visit Hong Kong for business-related purposes.
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To step up efforts to encourage Hong Kong people being educated
overseas to return to live and work here.
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| Investment Immigrants |
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| Recommendation: |
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To extend the existing immigration policy to cater for persons
who will make substantial investment (HK$6.5 million) in Hong
Kong but do not themselves run a business i.e. capital investment
entrants, and to apply this extended policy initially to foreign
nationals, residents of Macao SAR and Taiwan.
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| Policies Impacting on Childbirth |
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| Recommendation: |
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To continue with our current family planning programmes
emphasising healthy, planned parenthood.
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To encourage the Family Planning Association of Hong Kong
to change its name to better reflect its present scope of
work.
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To consider granting the same level of tax deduction for
all children irrespective of number.
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| Elderly Policy |
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| Recommendations: |
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To revisit and redefine the notion of retirement and old
age.
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To continue to develop programmes that promote active and
healthy aging.
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To develop a sustainable financial support system for the
needy elderly.
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| Growing Transient Population: Foreign
Domestic Helpers |
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| Recommendations: |
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To introduce a levy for the employment of FDHs, set at the
same level (i.e. $400 per month) as that imposed under the
Supplementary Labour Scheme. The levy will be paid by employers
and will apply to new contracts or renewal of contracts. The
levy will be imposed under the Employees Retraining Ordinance.
The Ordinance also stipulates that if the imported employees
fail to arrive in Hong Kong having been granted visas or having
arrived fail to complete their contracts of employment, there
will be no refund of the levy paid, but the Director of Immigration
will take into account the relevant balance if a fresh application
for an imported employee is submitted by the employer within
four months.
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To reduce the minimum allowable wage of FDHs by $400 on
1 April 2003.
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To step up enforcement action against abuse of the FDH system
and to prevent exploitation of the workers.
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To promote employment opportunities for LDHs.
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| Eligibility for Public Benefits |
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| Recommendations: |
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To adopt the principle of "seven-year" residence
requirement for providing social benefits heavily subsidized
by public funds. To consider tightening up the eligibility
criterion for CSSA so that such benefits should, from a future
date, be available only to residents who comply with the seven-year
residence rule (except for children under the age of 18; current
residents in Hong Kong will not be affected by this rule).
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To apply the same principle in respect of public healthcare
services to Two Way Permit holders and other visitors and
to consider how this policy could apply and be implemented
for the rest of the population.
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To review in the longer term access to subsidized benefits
by residents absent from Hong Kong for a long period of time.
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| Portability of Benefits |
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| Recommendations: |
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To address, in the longer term, the issue of portability
of public benefits taking into account the pace of our economic
integration with the Pearl River Delta.
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To examine in detail the cost implications of portable benefits
for the Government fiscal position and the local economy.
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| Need for Regular Review |
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| Recommendations: |
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To dedicate resources in the Administration to take forward
the population policy and review annually the implementation
of relevant decisions and programmes, with a view to publishing
a report every two to three years.
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