The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (October 16) the results of the Quarterly Business Tendency Survey for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2026.

Business Situation

     For all surveyed sectors taken together, the proportion of respondents expecting their business situation to be better (14%) in Q4 2026 over the preceding quarter is higher than that expecting it to be worse (9%). 

     When compared with the results of the Q3 2026 survey round, the proportion of respondents expecting a better business situation in Q4 2026 is 14%, higher than the corresponding proportion of 10% in Q3 2026. On the other hand, the proportion of respondents expecting a worse business situation had decreased from 14% in Q3 2026 to 9% in Q4 2026.

     Analysed by sector, respondents in most of the surveyed sectors expect their business situation to increase on balance or remain broadly unchanged in Q4 2026 as compared with Q3 2026. In particular, more respondents in the accommodation and food services and financing and insurance sectors expect their business situation to be better in Q4 2026 as compared with Q3 2026. On the other hand, in the transportation, storage and courier services sector, more respondents expect their business situation to be worse, as compared to those expecting it to be better.

     The results of the survey should be interpreted with care. In this type of survey on expectations, the views collected in the survey are affected by the events in the community occurring around the time of enumeration, and it is difficult to establish precisely the extent to which respondents' perception of the future accords with the underlying trends. The enumeration period for this survey round was from September 1, 2026 to October 6, 2026. 

Volume of Business / Output

     Respondents in most surveyed sectors expect their volume of business/output to increase on balance or remain broadly unchanged in Q4 2026 as compared with Q3 2026. In particular, more respondents in the accommodation and food services, manufacturing, financing and insurance and retail sectors expect their volume of business/production/sales to increase in Q4 2026 over Q3 2026. 

Employment

     Respondents in a number of the surveyed sectors expect their employment to remain broadly unchanged in Q4 2026 as compared with Q3 2026. Nevertheless, more respondents in the accommodation and food services and real estate sectors expect their employment to increase in Q4 2026 over Q3 2026. On the other hand, more respondents in the information and communications and construction sectors expect their employment to decrease, as compared to those expecting it to increase.

Selling Price / Service Charge

     Respondents in most of the surveyed sectors expect their selling prices/service charges to increase on balance or remain broadly unchanged in Q4 2026 as compared with Q3 2026. In particular, more respondents in the accommodation and food services and transportation, storage and courier services sectors expect their prices of food provided/charges for services rendered to go up in Q4 2026 over Q3 2026. However, more respondents in the construction sector expect their tender prices to go down in Q4 2026 over Q3 2026.

Commentary

     A Government spokesman said that the overall near-term business outlook among large enterprises for the fourth quarter of 2026 strengthened notably, registering a net positive balance of enterprises that expected their business situation to improve over the previous quarter, the first time in ten quarters. Most sectors saw improvements in their outlook. The overall hiring appetite also improved slightly.

     Looking ahead, continued solid growth in the Hong Kong economy will render support to local business outlook. Nonetheless, uncertainties remain in the external environment, which may affect near-term sentiment. The Government will continue to closely monitor the situation.

Further Information

     The survey gathers views on short-term business performance from the senior management of about 570 prominent companies in various sectors in Hong Kong with a view to providing a quick reference, with minimum time lag, for predicting the short-term future economic performance of the local economy.

     The survey covers 10 major sectors in Hong Kong, namely manufacturing; construction; import / export trade and wholesale; retail; accommodation and food services (mainly covering services rendered by hotels and restaurants); transportation, storage and courier services; information and communications; financing and insurance; real estate; and professional and business services sectors.

     Views collected in the survey refer only to those of respondents on their own companies rather than those on the respective sectors they are engaged in, and are limited to the expected direction of quarter-to-quarter change (e.g. "up", "same" or "down") but not the magnitude of change. In collecting views on the quarter-to-quarter changes, if the variable in question is subject to seasonal variations, respondents are asked to provide the expected changes after excluding the normal seasonal variations.

     Survey results are generally presented as "net balance", i.e. the difference between the percentage of respondents choosing "up" and that choosing "down". The percentage distribution of respondents among various response categories (e.g. "up", "same" and "down") reflects how varied their business expectations are. The "net balance", with its appropriate sign, indicates the direction of expected change in the variable concerned. A positive sign indicates a likely upward trend while a negative sign indicates a likely downward trend. However, the magnitude of the "net balance" reflects only the prevalence of optimism or pessimism, but not the magnitude of expected change, since information relating to such magnitude is not collected in the survey. 

     Furthermore, owing to sample size constraint, care should be taken in interpreting survey results involving a small percentage (e.g. less than 10%) of respondents in individual sectors.

     Chart 1 shows the views on expected changes in business situation for the period Q4 2025 to Q4 2026.

     Table 1 shows the net balances of views on expectations in respect of different variables for Q4 2026. 

     The survey results are published in greater detail in the "Report on Quarterly Business Tendency Survey, Q4 2026". Users can browse and download the publication at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/en/EIndexbySubject.html?pcode=B1110008&scode=300).
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     Users who have enquiries about the survey results may contact the Business Expectation Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel: 3903 7263; E-mail: business-prospects@censtatd.gov.hk).

Ends/Friday, October 16, 2026
Issued at HKT 16:30

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