The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (January 30) the advance estimates on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2025.

     According to the advance estimates, GDP increased by 3.8% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2025 over a year earlier, compared with the increase of 3.7% in the third quarter. For 2025 as a whole, GDP increased by 3.5% in real terms over 2024.

     Analysed by major GDP component, private consumption expenditure (PCE) increased by 2.5% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2025 over a year earlier, compared with the increase of 2.4% in the third quarter. For 2025 as a whole, PCE increased by 1.6% in real terms over 2024.

     Government consumption expenditure (GCE) measured in national accounts terms recorded an increase of 1.4% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2025 over a year earlier, compared with the increase of 2.0% in the third quarter. For 2025 as a whole, GCE increased by 1.6% in real terms over 2024. 

     Gross domestic fixed capital formation (GDFCF) increased further by 10.9% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2025 over a year earlier, following the increase of 3.4% in the third quarter. For 2025 as a whole, GDFCF increased by 4.5% in real terms over 2024.

     Total exports of goods measured in national accounts terms recorded an increase of 15.5% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2025 over a year earlier, accelerated further from the growth of 12.0% in the third quarter. Over the same period, imports of goods measured in national accounts terms grew by 18.4% in real terms, compared with the increase of 11.7% in the third quarter. For 2025 as a whole, total exports of goods and imports of goods recorded increases of 12.0% and 12.6% respectively in real terms over 2024.

     Exports of services rose by 4.9% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2025 over a year earlier, after the increase of 6.6% in the third quarter. Imports of services increased by 3.1% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared with the increase of 2.3% in the third quarter. For 2025 as a whole, exports of services and imports of services recorded increases of 6.3% and 4.1% respectively in real terms over 2024.

     On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter comparison basis, GDP increased by 1.0% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2025 when compared with the third quarter.
      
Commentary

     A Government spokesman said that the Hong Kong economy grew visibly further in the fourth quarter of 2025. According to the advance estimates, real GDP grew by 3.8% over a year earlier in the fourth quarter, picking up from the 3.7% growth in the preceding quarter. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter basis, real GDP rose further by 1.0%.

     For 2025 as a whole, real GDP registered robust growth of 3.5%, an acceleration from the 2.6% growth in 2024 and marking the third consecutive year of expansion. The growth momentum strengthened progressively over the course of 2025. Total exports of goods increased markedly, propelled by strong demand for electronic-related products and buoyant regional trade flows in Asia. Exports of services rose notably, supported by sustained growth in inbound tourism as well as vibrant cross-boundary financial service activities. Domestically, private consumption expenditure turned to an increase, as the local consumption market gradually improved since the second quarter of the year. Overall investment expenditure grew at a faster pace alongside a more entrenched economic expansion.

     Looking ahead, the Hong Kong economy is expected to maintain good momentum in 2026. Sustained moderate expansion of the global economy, coupled with persistently strong global demand for artificial intelligence-enabled electronic-related products will lend support to Hong Kong's export performance. Domestically, improving consumer and business sentiment, together with the expected further interest rate cuts in the United States, will benefit consumption and investment activities. While external uncertainties persist given escalating geopolitical tensions and shifting economic, financial and trade policies of individual major economies, the SAR Government's various measures to develop the economy and diversify markets will provide support to the Hong Kong economy.

     The revised figures on GDP and more detailed statistics for the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2025, as well as the real GDP growth forecast for 2026 will be released on February 25, 2026 when the 2026-27 Budget is announced.

Further information

     The year-on-year percentage changes of GDP and selected major expenditure components in real terms from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the fourth quarter of 2025 are shown in Table 1.

     When more data become available, the C&SD will compile revised figures on GDP. The revised figures on GDP and more detailed statistics for the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2025 will be released at the C&SD website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/en/scode250.html) and the Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure Component report (www.censtatd.gov.hk/en/EIndexbySubject.html?pcode=B1030001&scode=250) on February 25, 2026.

     For enquiries about statistics on GDP by expenditure component, please contact the National Income Branch (1) of the C&SD (Tel: 2582 5077 or email: gdp-e@censtatd.gov.hk).

Ends/Friday, January 30, 2026
Issued at HKT 16:30

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