Advance estimates on Gross Domestic Product for third quarter of 2025
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According to the advance estimates, GDP increased by 3.8% in real terms in the third quarter of 2025 over a year earlier, compared with the increase of 3.1% in the second quarter.
Analysed by major GDP component, private consumption expenditure increased by 2.1% in real terms in the third quarter of 2025 over a year earlier, compared with the increase of 1.9% in the second quarter.
Government consumption expenditure measured in national accounts terms recorded an increase of 1.6% in real terms in the third quarter of 2025 over a year earlier, compared with the increase of 2.5% in the second quarter.
Gross domestic fixed capital formation increased further by 4.3% in real terms in the third quarter of 2025 over a year earlier, following the increase of 1.9% in the second quarter.
Over the same period, total exports of goods measured in national accounts terms recorded an increase of 12.2% in real terms over a year earlier, compared with the increase of 11.5% in the second quarter. Imports of goods measured in national accounts terms grew by 11.7% in real terms in the third quarter of 2025, compared with the increase of 12.6% in the second quarter.
Exports of services rose by 6.1% in real terms in the third quarter of 2025 over a year earlier, after the increase of 8.6% in the second quarter. Imports of services increased by 2.6% in real terms in the third quarter of 2025, compared with the increase of 7.3% in the second quarter.
On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter comparison basis, GDP increased by 0.7% in real terms in the third quarter of 2025 when compared with the second quarter.
Commentary
A Government spokesman said that the Hong Kong economy staged a robust performance in the third quarter of 2025, driven by a continued surge in exports and sustained expansion in domestic demand. According to the advance estimates, real GDP grew by 3.8% over a year earlier, picking up from the 3.1% growth in the preceding quarter. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter basis, real GDP rose further by 0.7%.
Analysed by major expenditure component, total exports of goods continued to grow markedly in the third quarter, propelled by strong demand for electronic-related products and buoyant regional trade flows. Exports of services also expanded notably, mainly supported by continued growth in inbound tourism and vibrant cross-boundary financial activities amid rises in global stock markets. Domestically, private consumption expenditure grew further. Overall investment expenditure saw an accelerated increase alongside the economic expansion and stabilisation in the residential property market.
Looking ahead, the Hong Kong economy should see further solid growth for the rest of 2025. Sustained moderate growth of the global economy in the near term, together with the persistent stellar demand for electronic-related products of late, should provide further support to Hong Kong's exports of goods. Continued increase in visitor arrivals and vibrant financial market activities should provide further impetus to exports of services. On the domestic front, the renewed interest rate cuts in the United States since this September are conducive to boosting asset market sentiment. Coupled with a gradual recovery in consumption confidence and also a visible improvement in business sentiment from earlier this year, these developments should lend support to local consumption and investment activity. The Government's various measures to develop the economy and diversify markets will also provide support. However, external uncertainties, especially those arising from the ongoing impacts of trade barriers on the global economy, international trade and financial conditions still warrant close monitoring.
The revised figures on GDP and more detailed statistics for the third quarter of 2025, as well as the revised GDP forecast for 2025, will be released on November 14, 2025.
Further information
The year-on-year percentage changes of GDP and selected major expenditure components in real terms from the third quarter of 2024 to the third quarter of 2025 are shown in Table 1.
When more data become available, the C&SD will compile revised figures on GDP. The revised figures on GDP and more detailed statistics for the third quarter of 2025 will be released at the C&SD website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/en/scode250.html) and the Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure Component report (www.censtatd.gov.hk/en/EIndexbySubject.html?pcode=B1030001&scode=250) on November 14, 2025.
For enquiries about statistics on GDP by expenditure component, please contact the National Income Branch (1) of the C&SD (Tel: 2582 5077 or email: gdp-e@censtatd.gov.hk).
Ends/Friday, October 31, 2025
Issued at HKT 16:29
Issued at HKT 16:29
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