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Advance estimates on Gross Domestic Product for fourth quarter and whole year of 2024
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     The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (February 3) the advance estimates on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2024.
 
     According to the advance estimates, GDP increased by 2.4% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2024 over a year earlier, compared with the increase of 1.9% in the third quarter. For 2024 as a whole, GDP increased by 2.5% in real terms over 2023.
 
     Analysed by major GDP component, private consumption expenditure (PCE) decreased by 0.2% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2024 from a year earlier, narrowed from the decrease of 1.3% in the third quarter. For 2024 as a whole, PCE decreased by 0.6% in real terms from 2023.
 
     Government consumption expenditure (GCE) measured in national accounts terms recorded an increase of 1.9% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2024 over a year earlier, compared with the increase of 1.7% in the third quarter. For 2024 as a whole, GCE increased by 0.9% in real terms over 2023.
 
     Gross domestic fixed capital formation (GDFCF) decreased by 0.9% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2024 from a year earlier, as against the increase of 5.7% in the third quarter. For 2024 as a whole, GDFCF increased by 2.4% in real terms over 2023.
 
     Over the same period, total exports of goods measured in national accounts terms recorded an increase of 1.2% in real terms over a year earlier, moderated from the increase of 4.0% in the third quarter. Imports of goods measured in national accounts terms grew by 0.1% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared with the increase of 2.8% in the third quarter. For 2024 as a whole, total exports of goods and imports of goods recorded increases of 4.7% and 2.3% respectively in real terms over 2023.
 
     Exports of services rose further by 5.6% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2024 over a year earlier, after the increase of 2.9% in the third quarter. Imports of services increased by 8.7% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared with the increase of 8.9% in the third quarter. For 2024 as a whole, exports of services and imports of services recorded increases of 4.8% and 11.8% respectively in real terms over 2023.
 
     On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter comparison basis, GDP increased by 0.8% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2024 when compared with the third quarter.
 
Commentary
 
     A Government spokesman said that the Hong Kong economy grew at an accelerated pace in the fourth quarter of 2024 over a year earlier. According to the advance estimates, real GDP expanded by 2.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter basis, real GDP turned to growth of 0.8%.
 
     For 2024 as a whole, real GDP posted moderate growth of 2.5%, further to 3.2% growth in 2023. Total exports of goods resumed growth amid improved external demand. Exports of services continued to increase, driven by further growth of visitor arrivals and improvement in other cross-border economic activities. Overall investment expenditure showed a further increase as the economy continued to expand. However, private consumption expenditure recorded a slight decline, affected by the change in residents' consumption patterns.
 
     Looking ahead, the Hong Kong economy is expected to register further growth in 2025 despite heightened uncertainties in the external environment. Trade protectionist policies implemented by the US may disrupt global trade flows and adversely affect Hong Kong's goods exports. They may also lead to a slower pace of interest rate cuts in the US and keep the Hong Kong dollar strong for longer. Nevertheless, the Mainland’s proactive policy to boost its economy will help bolster market confidence and benefit a wide spectrum of economic segments in Hong Kong. The Central Government's various measures benefitting Hong Kong, coupled with the SAR Government’s wide range of initiatives to promote economic growth, will also provide support to various economic activities.
 
     The revised figures on GDP and more detailed statistics for the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2024, as well as the real GDP growth forecast for 2025 will be released on February 26, 2025 when the 2025-26 Budget is announced.
 
Further information
 
     The year-on-year percentage changes of GDP and selected major expenditure components in real terms from the fourth quarter of 2023 to the fourth quarter of 2024 are shown in Table 1.
 
     When more data become available, the C&SD will compile revised figures on GDP. The revised figures on GDP and more detailed statistics for the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2024 will be released at the C&SD website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/en/scode250.html) and the Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure Component report (www.censtatd.gov.hk/en/EIndexbySubject.html?pcode=B1030001&scode=250) on February 26, 2025.
 
     For enquiries about statistics on GDP by expenditure component, please contact the National Income Branch (1) of the C&SD (Tel: 2582 5077 or email: gdp-e@censtatd.gov.hk).
 
Ends/Monday, February 3, 2025
Issued at HKT 16:30
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