The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (April 23) the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for March 2018. According to the Composite CPI, overall consumer prices rose by 2.6% in March 2018 over the same month a year earlier, larger than the average rate of increase in January and February 2018 (2.4%). The comparison to the average rate of increase in January and February is to neutralise the effect caused by different timing of the Lunar New Year between two years. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rate of increase in the Composite CPI (i.e. the underlying inflation rate) in March 2018 was 2.6%, also larger than the average rate of increase in January and February 2018 (2.3%), mainly due to the enlarged increases in the charges for package tours.

     The year-on-year rate of increase in the Composite CPI in March 2018 was 2.6%, smaller than that in February 2018 (3.1%). Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rate of increase in the Composite CPI in March 2018 was 2.6%, also smaller than that in February 2018 (3.1%). Nonetheless, the February inflation figure was affected by the difference in timing of the Lunar New Year between two years, which occurred in mid-February this year but in late January last year.

     On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average monthly rate of increase in the Composite CPI for the three-month period from January to March 2018 was 0.3%, the same as that for the three-month period from December 2017 to February 2018. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the average monthly rate of increase in the Composite CPI for the three-month period from January to March 2018 was 0.3%, the same as that for the three-month period from December 2017 to February 2018.

     Analysed by sub-index, the year-on-year rates of increase in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 2.8%, 2.5% and 2.5% respectively in March 2018, as compared to the average rates of increase of 2.5%, 2.3% and 2.3% respectively in January and February 2018, and 3.1%, 3.0% and 3.2% respectively in February 2018. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rates of increase in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 2.7%, 2.5% and 2.5% respectively in March 2018, as compared to the average rates of increase of 2.5%, 2.3% and 2.4% respectively in January and February 2018, and 3.0%, 3.0% and 3.2% respectively in February 2018.

     On a seasonally adjusted basis, for the three-month period from January to March 2018, the average monthly rates of increase in the seasonally adjusted CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 0.4%, 0.3% and 0.3% respectively. The corresponding rates of increase for the three-month period from December 2017 to February 2018 were all 0.3%. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the corresponding average monthly rates of increase in the seasonally adjusted CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) for the three-month period from January to March 2018 were 0.4%, 0.3% and 0.3% respectively, and the corresponding rates of increase for the three-month period from December 2017 to February 2018 were all 0.3%.

     Amongst the various CPI components, year-on-year increases in prices were recorded in March 2018 for food (excluding meals bought away from home) (5.0% in the Composite CPI and 4.9% in the CPI(A)); electricity, gas and water (4.3% in the Composite CPI and 4.5% in the CPI(A)); meals bought away from home (3.0% in the Composite CPI and 3.2% in the CPI(A)); miscellaneous services (2.9% in the Composite CPI and 2.0% in the CPI(A)); housing (2.6% in the Composite CPI and 2.8% in the CPI(A)); transport (1.6% in the Composite CPI and 1.1% in the CPI(A)); alcoholic drinks and tobacco (1.0% in both the Composite CPI and CPI(A)); clothing and footwear (0.9% in the Composite CPI and 0.3% in the CPI(A)) as well as miscellaneous goods (0.8% in the Composite CPI and 1.3% in the CPI(A)).

     On the other hand, year-on-year decrease in prices was recorded in March 2018 for durable goods (-2.1% in both the Composite CPI and CPI(A)).

     In the first quarter of 2018, the Composite CPI rose by 2.4% over a year earlier, while the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 2.6%, 2.4% and 2.4% respectively. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures were 2.4%, 2.5%, 2.4% and 2.4% respectively.

     For the 12 months ended March 2018, the Composite CPI was on average 2.0% higher than that in the preceding 12-month period. The respective increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 2.2%, 1.8% and 1.9%. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures were 1.9%, 2.1%, 1.8% and 1.9% respectively.

Commentary

     A Government spokesman said that inflationary pressures generally held moderate, though the year-on-year rate of increase in the underlying Composite CPI went up slightly in March to 2.6% compared with the average of 2.3% for January and February combined. The slightly faster increase in March was mainly due to an earlier arrival of the Easter holidays that began in late March this year, which resulted in a surge in charges for package tours on a year-on-year basis. Besides, a pick-up in prices of basic foodstuffs over a year earlier also contributed.

     The spokesman commented further that, looking ahead, external and local price pressures would rise somewhat over the course of 2018 if the above-trend economic growth continues. Yet, the upside risks to inflation should stay largely contained in the near term. The Government will continue to monitor the inflation developments closely, particularly the impact on the lower-income people.

Further information

     The CPIs and year-on-year rates of change at section level for March 2018 are shown in Table 1. The time series on the year-on-year rates of change in the CPIs before and after removing the effects of Government's one-off relief measures are shown in Table 2. For discerning the latest trend in consumer prices, it is also useful to look at the changes in the seasonally adjusted CPIs. The corresponding time series on the average monthly rates of change during the latest three months for the seasonally adjusted CPIs are shown in Table 3. The rates of change in the original and the seasonally adjusted Composite CPI and the underlying inflation rate are presented graphically in Chart 1.

     More detailed CPI data (including year-on-year comparison, month-to-month comparison, seasonally adjusted data series and the CPIs by the Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose (COICOP)) are available in the monthly reports. Users can download the March 2018 issue of the "Monthly Report on the Consumer Price Index" (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp270.jsp?productCode=B1060001), the time series of CPIs at detailed level (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp270.jsp?productCode=D5600001) and the time series of CPIs at COICOP division level (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp270.jsp?productCode=D5600002) free of charge at the website of the C&SD.

     For enquiries about the CPIs, please contact the Consumer Price Index Section of the C&SD (Tel: 3903 7374 or email: cpi@censtatd.gov.hk).

Ends/Monday, April 23, 2018
Issued at HKT 16:30

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