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LCQ17: Lands involved in the committed and planned projects
     Following is a question by the Dr Hon Yiu Chung-yim and a written reply by the Secretary for Development, Mr Eric Ma, in the Legislative Council today (May 24):
     The Government is currently carrying out an updating exercise of "Hong Kong 2030+: Towards a Planning Vision and Strategy Transcending 2030".  A relevant paper has pointed out that the total new land requirement in Hong Kong from now into the long term (i.e. beyond 2040) will not be less than about 4 800 hectares.  Discounting a supply of about 3 600 hectares of land from the committed and planned projects, there is still a lack of more than 1 200 hectares of land.  In this connection, will the Government inform this Council of the specific information on each piece of land among the aforesaid 3 600 hectares of land, including (i) the uses involved and (ii) the respective total areas of land involved in various uses, and set out the information by name of major project (if major projects are not involved, set out by District Council district) and mark on a map the location of each piece of land?
     "Hong Kong 2030+: Towards a Planning Vision and Strategy Transcending 2030" ("Hong Kong 2030+"), as an updating exercise of the territorial development strategy, serves to explore and formulate feasible options for Hong Kong’s overall spatial planning, land and infrastructure development, and the shaping of its built and natural environment beyond 2030.  Unlike the detailed layout plans prepared under individual planning studies/reviews at the district and local levels, "Hong Kong 2030+" is meant to provide a robust broad-brush framework from the territorial strategic planning angle and to set out the major directions for Hong Kong’s long-term development, such that planning work under individual projects, covering the more detailed planning studies/reviews, technical assessments, public engagement, etc., can be taken forward in accordance with the relevant strategic directions.  The analyses of land supply and demand under the "Hong Kong 2030+” study, including the methodologies in estimating and assessing the land supply and demand, have been set out in the published topical paper on "Consolidated Land Requirements and Supply Analysis", which has been uploaded onto the dedicated website of "Hong Kong 2030+" for public reference (www.hk2030plus.hk/document/Consolidated%20Land%20Requirement%20and%20Supply%20Analysis_Eng.pdf).
Land Requirements
     During the study process of "Hong Kong 2030+", the Planning Department had carried out the consultancy study on "Review of Land Requirements for Grade A Offices, Business and Industrial Uses", made reference to the "Long Term Housing Strategy" and the supply targets and guidelines for various facilities under the "Hong Kong Planning Standards and Guidelines", and consulted the relevant bureaux and departments (B/Ds), so as to make a broad-brush assessment on the long-term land and space requirements beyond 2030 for economic activities, housing, community, environment, etc.  The assessment serves as one of the references in updating the territorial development strategy.  According to the projection under "Hong Kong 2030+", it is estimated that the total additional land requirement for the various economic land, housing, "Government, Institution or Community" (G/IC) facilities, open space and major transport facilities, etc. from now to the long term (i.e. beyond 2040) will be no less than 4 800 hectares (ha), which amounts to about 4 per cent of Hong Kong’s total land area, and 18 per cent of the existing built-up area.
     This some 4 800-ha land requirement covers the various economic land (excluding uses like retail and hotel), housing land, G/IC land, open space and land for transport facilities.  The projection has already taken into account the currently known population and household projections, the review of economic land requirements, estimation on the scale of urban redevelopment and the demand for G/IC land, etc.  It has yet to consider the policy factors which include the potential future demographic changes as a result of the Population Policy, changes in the pace of urban redevelopment arising from new policies, further enhancement of the living space and living quality, the space required for future development of new industries or services, as well as the demand from additional infrastructure or environmental protection facilities, etc.  Being an externally-oriented economy, the future development of Hong Kong is subject to the influence of external factors.  The Hong Kong community also has aspirations for city development in various aspects such as environmental protection, conservation and liveability.  Coupled with uncertainties that could not be anticipated, the relevant projection could only be carried out in a more conservative manner.
     Having considered the 21 per cent increase in household number between 2014 and 2044, and the projection that about 26 per cent of private housing units would require redevelopment between 2016 and 2046, the estimated land requirement under "Hong Kong 2030+" is equivalent to about 18 per cent of the existing built-up area, and the estimation has already assumed the more efficient use of the existing built-up land.  It should be emphasised that the relevant projected figures are not for accurate forecast of the long-term land requirements, but as the overall broad-brush estimation for strategic planning purpose.  The formulation of territorial development strategy thus has to be flexible, such that we can make timely adjustments to suit the ever-changing circumstances in future.  As part of the on-going planning work, we must continue to closely monitor the changes in the relevant land requirements, and adjust suitably the timetable and development scale of the planned individual projects during the stages of further study and implementation, with a view to flexibly address the changes in the social, market and overall development needs.
Land Supply
     On land supply, the Government has all along adopted the multi-pronged strategy to meet Hong Kong's land demand for various aspects.  "Hong Kong 2030+" estimates that the land supply from the committed, planned and under advance planning development projects (including redevelopment projects) can only meet about 3 600 ha of the relevant land requirements.  The land area breakdown, by uses, of the above estimated land requirement (some 4 800 ha) and estimated land supply (some 3 600 ha) has been set out in the "Consolidated Land Requirements and Supply Analysis" topical paper (table 4-1), which is shown in Annex 1.

     Major sources of the estimated land supply include the various short to medium-term land supply initiatives including the some 210 potential housing sites identified in land use reviews, medium to long-term land development projects such as the Kwu Tong North/Fanling North New Development Areas (NDAs), Tung Chung New Town Extension, Hung Shui Kiu NDA and Yuen Long South Development (which altogether could release about 340 ha brownfield sites), as well as other known or anticipated private development and redevelopment projects (mainly from the projects with approved building plans and/or planning permission).  The distribution and areas of the relevant major land supply initiatives are already set out in Annexes D and E of the Administration's paper on "Overview of Land Supply" (CB(1)461/16-17(01)) submitted by the Development Bureau to the Legislative Council Panel on Development in January 2017.  The plan showing the distribution of the various initiatives is now shown in Plan 1 (excluding the "Tseung Kwan O Area 137", "Near-shore Reclamation outside Victoria Harbour", "Proposed Government Facilities for Relocation to Caverns”, "Underground Space Development” and the two "Strategic Growth Areas" as contained in the original plan).  As regards economic land supply, it mainly involves the committed/planned/under advance planning land supply initiatives, which have been set out in the "Consolidated Land Requirements and Supply Analysis" topical paper (Graph 1-1), which is now shown in Plan 2 (excluding the "Potential Solution Spaces for Meeting Shortfall” items, and the "Major Planned/Committed Projects" under "Non-CDA Grade A Offices” and "General Business" which are anticipated to have surplus land supply as contained in the original plan).  Since many of these projects and facilities are of different scales and scattered across the territory, we are unable to mark their exact locations on the plan one by one.
     Figures of the various major land supply initiatives and their anticipated supply of different land uses are set out in Annex 2.  It should be noted that: (i) part of the reserved/planned land for the abovementioned major G/IC, open space, transport and other government special facilities are excluded from the land supply initiatives in the table below (please refer to the Annex 3); (ii) individual private developments and redevelopment projects that have obtained approved building plans and/or planning permission are also excluded from the land supply initiatives in Annex 2; and (iii) the land areas for various uses under individual land supply initiatives might be different from the estimates under "Hong Kong 2030+".  As such, the sum of land supply items in Annex 2 is less than 3 600 ha.     
     Based on the projections of "Hong Kong 2030+", in the long run there remains a shortfall of at least 1 200 ha of land in order to meet the land requirement of Hong Kong.  As such, "Hong Kong 2030+" proposes two Strategic Growth Areas, i.e. the East Lantau Metropolis and New Territories North (which will release about 200 ha brownfield sites) so as to satisfy the long-term land requirements of Hong Kong.  According to the estimation, assuming that land development projects under "Hong Kong 2030+" are all implemented as projected, the total built-up area of Hong Kong accounting for the total land area of Hong Kong will increase from about 24 per cent to about 29 per cent.  At the same time, the protected country parks and conservation areas will continue to occupy about half of the total land area of Hong Kong.
Ends/Wednesday, May 24, 2017
Issued at HKT 14:57
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