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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released the latest figures on retail sales today (March 3).
The value of total retail sales in January 2016, provisionally estimated at $43.6 billion, decreased by 6.5% compared with the same month in 2015. The revised estimate of the value of total retail sales in December 2015 decreased by 8.5% compared with a year earlier.
After netting out the effect of price changes over the same period, the volume of total retail sales in January 2016 decreased by 5.2% compared with a year earlier. The revised estimate of the volume of total retail sales in December 2015 decreased by 6.1% compared with a year earlier.
In interpreting the figures for January, it should be noted that retail sales tend to show greater volatility in the first two months of a year due to the timing of the Lunar New Year. Local consumer spending normally attains a seasonal high before the festival. As the Lunar New Year fell on February 8 this year but on February 19 last year, the year-on-year comparison of the figures for January 2016 with those for January 2015 might have been affected by this factor to a certain extent.
Analysed by broad type of retail outlet in descending order of value of sales and comparing January 2016 with January 2015, and also bearing in mind the effect due to the difference in the timing of the Lunar New Year as mentioned above, the value of sales of jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts decreased by 16.3%. This was followed by sales of wearing apparel (-4.9% in value); commodities in department stores (-3.6%); medicines and cosmetics (-3.6%); electrical goods and photographic equipment (-19.7%); miscellaneous consumer durable goods (-29.3%); motor vehicles and parts (-10.5%); furniture and fixtures (-0.5%); books, newspapers, stationery and gifts (-9.7%); Chinese drugs and herbs (-0.2%); and optical shops (-6.3%).
On the other hand, the value of sales of commodities in supermarkets increased by 8.0% in January 2016 over a year earlier. This was followed by sales of food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (+7.2% in value); other consumer goods, not elsewhere classified (+4.4%); footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories (+5.7%); and fuels (+3.9%).
Based on the seasonally adjusted series, the value of total retail sales decreased by 6.4% in the three months ending January 2016 compared with the preceding three-month period, while the volume of total retail sales decreased by 6.5%.
These retail sales statistics measure the sales receipts in respect of goods sold by local retail establishments and are primarily intended for gauging the short-term business performance of the local retail sector. They cover consumer spending on goods but not on services (such as those on housing, catering, medical care and health services, transport and communication, financial services, education and entertainment) which account for some 50% of the overall consumer spending. Moreover, they include spending on goods in Hong Kong by visitors but exclude spending outside Hong Kong by Hong Kong residents. Hence they should not be regarded as indicators for measuring overall consumer spending.
Users interested in the trend of overall consumer spending should refer to the data series of private consumption expenditure (PCE), which is a major component of the Gross Domestic Product published at quarterly intervals. Compiled from a wide range of data sources, PCE covers consumer spending on both goods (including goods purchased from all channels) and services by Hong Kong residents whether locally or abroad. Please refer to the C&SD publication "Gross Domestic Product (Quarterly)" for more details.
Commentary
A government spokesman indicated that retail sales stayed weak and continued to fall in January, reflecting the protracted slowdown in inbound tourism and also weakening local consumption sentiment amid the uncertain economic outlook. The retail sales figures for January may be somewhat affected by the difference in timing of the Lunar New Year, which fell on February 8 this year, but on February 19 last year. As such, it would be more meaningful to examine January and February figures combined for a clearer picture of the underlying trend, when available.
The near-term outlook for retail sales will remain constrained by the sluggishness in inbound tourism. The impact on consumer sentiment from recent consolidation of asset markets also needs to be closely watched. External uncertainties, including dimmer global economic outlook and the US interest rate normalisation, may add further headwinds. The Government will continue to monitor the slowdown of retail business and its repercussions on the wider economy and the job market.
Further information
Table 1 presents the revised figures on value index and value of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for December 2015 as well as the provisional figures for January 2016.
Table 2 presents the revised figures on volume index of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for December 2015 as well as the provisional figures for January 2016.
Table 3 shows the movements of the value and volume of total retail sales in terms of the year-on-year rate of change for a month compared with the same month in the preceding year based on the original series, and in terms of the rate of change for a three-month period compared with the preceding three-month period based on the seasonally adjusted series.
The classification of retail establishments follows the Hong Kong Standard Industrial Classification (HSIC) Version 2.0, which is used in various economic surveys for classifying economic units into different industry classes.
More detailed statistics are given in the Report on Monthly Survey of Retail Sales. Users can download this publication free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp320.jsp?productCode=B1080003).
Users who have enquiries about the survey results may contact the Distribution Services Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel: 3903 7400; email: mrs@censtatd.gov.hk).
Ends/Thursday, March 3, 2016
Issued at HKT 16:30
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