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Consumer Price Indices for July 2015
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     The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (August 20) the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for July 2015. According to the Composite CPI, overall consumer prices rose by 2.5% in July 2015 over the same month a year earlier, smaller than the corresponding increase (3.1%) in June 2015. The larger increase in June 2015 was mainly attributable to the low base of comparison arising from the Government's provision of electricity charge subsidy in June 2014, and the subsidy was no longer provided to households as from July 2014. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rate of increase in the Composite CPI (i.e. the underlying inflation rate) in July 2015 was 2.6%, the same as that in June 2015.

     On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average monthly rate of change in the Composite CPI for the 3-month period from May to July 2015 was 0.3%, and the corresponding rate of change for the 3-month period from April to June 2015 was -0.2%. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the average monthly rate of increase in the Composite CPI for the 3-month period from May to July 2015 was 0.3%, and that for the 3-month period from April to June 2015 was 0.2%.

     Analysed by sub-index, the year-on-year rates of increase in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 3.4%, 2.4% and 1.8% respectively in July 2015, which compared to 4.4%, 2.9% and 2.0% respectively in June. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rates of increase in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 3.4%, 2.5% and 1.9% respectively in July 2015, same as that in June.

     On a seasonally adjusted basis, for the 3-month period from May to July 2015, the average monthly rates of change in the seasonally adjusted CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 0.3%, 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. The corresponding rates of change for the 3-month period from April to June 2015 were -0.5%, -0.2% and virtually nil. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the corresponding average monthly rates of increase in the seasonally adjusted CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) for the 3-month period from May to July 2015 were 0.3%, 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, and the corresponding rates of increase for the 3-month period from April to June 2015 were all 0.2%.

     Amongst the various CPI components, year-on-year increases in prices were recorded in July 2015 for meals bought away from home (4.4% in the Composite CPI and 4.2% in the CPI(A)); housing (4.3% in the Composite CPI and 5.2% in the CPI(A)); food (excluding meals bought away from home) (4.3% in both the Composite CPI and CPI(A)); electricity, gas and water (1.0% in the Composite CPI and 2.1% in the CPI(A)); miscellaneous services (1.0% in both the Composite CPI and CPI(A)); miscellaneous goods (0.6% in the Composite CPI and 1.2% in the CPI(A)) as well as alcoholic drinks and tobacco (0.4% in the Composite CPI and 0.3% in the CPI(A)).

     On the other hand, year-on-year decreases in prices were recorded in July 2015 for durable goods (-5.6% in the Composite CPI and -5.3% in the CPI(A)) as well as clothing and footwear (-2.9% in the Composite CPI and -2.1% in the CPI(A)).

     As for transport, the Composite CPI fell by 0.5% over a year earlier but the CPI(A) rose by 0.8%.

     Taking the first seven months of 2015 together, the Composite CPI rose by 3.5% over a year earlier. The corresponding increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 5.0%, 3.2% and 2.2%. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the Composite CPI, CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 2.6%, 3.4%, 2.4% and 1.8% respectively in the first seven months of 2015 over a year earlier.

     For the 3 months ended July 2015, the Composite CPI rose by 2.9% over a year earlier, while the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 4.0%, 2.7% and 1.9% respectively. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures were 2.6%, 3.4%, 2.5% and 1.9% respectively.

     For the 12 months ended July 2015, the Composite CPI was on average 4.2% higher than in the preceding 12-month period. The respective increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 6.1%, 3.7% and 2.7%. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures were 2.9%, 3.6%, 2.7% and 2.2% respectively.

Commentary

     A Government spokesman said that underlying consumer price inflation stayed moderate in July. Looking ahead, given the muted global inflation, soft international commodity prices and moderate local cost pressures, the upside risks to inflation should remain limited in the near term. The Government will continue to monitor the inflation developments closely, particularly its impact on the lower-income people.

Further information

     The CPIs and year-on-year rates of change at section level for July 2015 are shown in Table 1. The time series on the year-on-year rates of change in the CPIs before and after removing the effects of one-off measures are shown in Table 2. For discerning the latest trend in consumer prices, it is also useful to look at the changes in the seasonally adjusted CPIs. The corresponding time series on the average monthly rates of change during the latest 3 months for the seasonally adjusted CPIs are shown in Table 3. The rates of change in the original and the seasonally adjusted Composite CPI and the underlying inflation rate are presented graphically in Chart 1.

     More detailed CPI data (including year-on-year comparison, month-to-month comparison, seasonally adjusted data series and the CPIs by the Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose (COICOP)) are available in the monthly reports. Users can download the July 2015 issue of the Monthly Report on the Consumer Price Index (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp270.jsp?productCode=B1060001), the time series of CPIs at detailed level (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp270.jsp?productCode=D5600001) as well as the time series of CPIs at COICOP division level (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp270.jsp?productCode=D5600002) free of charge at the website of the C&SD.

     For enquiries about the CPIs, please contact the Consumer Price Index Section of the C&SD at telephone no. 3903 7374 or email address cpi@censtatd.gov.hk.

Ends/Thursday, August 20, 2015
Issued at HKT 16:30

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