Provisional statistics of retail sales for December 2014 and for the whole year of 2014
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     The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released the latest figures on retail sales today (February 2).

     The value of total retail sales in December 2014, provisionally estimated at $47.8 billion, decreased by 3.9% compared with the same month in 2013. The revised estimate of the value of total retail sales in November 2014 increased by 4.2% over a year earlier.

     After netting out the effect of price changes over the same period, the volume of total retail sales in December 2014 decreased by 1.3% from a year earlier. The revised estimate of the volume of total retail sales in November 2014 increased by 7.6% over a year earlier.

     Analysed by broad type of retail outlet in descending order of value of sales and comparing December 2014 with December 2013, the value of sales of medicines and cosmetics increased by 4.2%. This was followed by sales of food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (+7.4% in value); miscellaneous consumer durable goods (+18.6%); motor vehicles and parts (+0.5%); and books, newspapers, stationery and gifts (+0.1%).

     On the other hand, the value of sales of jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts decreased by 16.3% in December 2014 compared with a year earlier. This was followed by sales of wearing apparel (-3.8% in value); commodities in department stores (-5.3%); electrical goods and photographic equipment (-4.4%); other consumer goods, not elsewhere classified (-2.6%); footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories (-3.1%); fuels (-10.4%); furniture and fixtures (-3.2%); Chinese drugs and herbs (-2.1%); and optical shops (-2.0%). The value of sales of commodities in supermarkets remained virtually unchanged.

     Based on the seasonally adjusted series, the value of total retail sales increased by 1.5% in the fourth quarter of 2014 compared with the preceding quarter, while the volume of total retail sales increased by 5.2%.

     For 2014 as a whole, the value of total retail sales was $493.3 billion, decreased by 0.2% in value and increased by 0.6% in volume when compared with 2013.

     Analysed by broad type of retail outlet in descending order of value of sales and comparing the whole year of 2014 with the whole year of 2013, the value of sales of wearing apparel increased by 4.0%. This was followed by sales of commodities in department stores (+1.4% in value); commodities in supermarkets (+4.6%); medicines and cosmetics (+9.3%); food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (+6.6%); other consumer goods, not elsewhere classified (+3.4%); miscellaneous consumer durable goods (+19.4%); motor vehicles and parts (+5.9%); footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories (+5.3%); books, newspapers, stationery and gifts (+4.3%); Chinese drugs and herbs (+4.2%); and optical shops (+8.4%).

     On the other hand, the value of sales of jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts decreased by 13.7% in 2014 compared with 2013. This was followed by sales of electrical goods and photographic equipment (-8.1% in value); fuels (-1.4%); and furniture and fixtures (-0.2%).

     These retail sales statistics measure the sales receipts in respect of goods sold by local retail establishments and are primarily intended for gauging the short-term business performance of the local retail sector. They cover consumer spending on goods but not on services (such as those on housing, catering, medical care and health services, transport and communication, financial services, education and entertainment) which account for about 50% of the overall consumer spending. Moreover, they include spending on goods in Hong Kong by visitors but exclude spending outside Hong Kong by Hong Kong residents. Hence they should not be regarded as indicators for measuring overall consumer spending.

     Users interested in the trend of overall consumer spending should refer to the data series of private consumption expenditure (PCE), which is a major component of the Gross Domestic Product published at quarterly intervals. Compiled from a wide range of data sources, PCE covers consumer spending on both goods (including goods purchased from all channels) and services by Hong Kong residents whether locally or abroad. Please refer to the Census and Statistics Department publication "Gross Domestic Product (Quarterly)" for more details.

Commentary

     A government spokesman noted that retail sales reverted to a year-on-year decline in December 2014, dragged mainly by a wider fall in the sales of jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts, possibly reflecting the slackening in visitor spending. The sales performance of many other items, including those related more to local consumption, was also lacklustre. The fluctuations in retail sales in recent months suggest that consumption sentiment was still rather unsteady.

     Looking ahead, the near-term performance of retail sales will still hinge on the labour market conditions and inbound tourism growth. We also need to closely watch over how various uncertainties in the external environment will play out and affect local consumption sentiment down the road.

Further information

     Table 1 presents the revised figures on value index and value of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for November 2014 and the provisional figures for December 2014. The provisional figures on the value of retail sales by broad type of retail outlet and the corresponding year-on-year changes for the whole year of 2014 are also shown.

     Table 2 presents the revised figures on volume index of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for November 2014 and the provisional figures for December 2014. The provisional figures on year-on-year changes for the whole year of 2014 are also shown.

     Table 3 shows the movements of the value and volume of total retail sales in terms of the year-on-year rate of change for a month compared with the same month in the preceding year based on the original series, and in terms of the rate of change for a three-month period compared with the preceding three-month period based on the seasonally adjusted series.

     The classification of retail establishments follows the Hong Kong Standard Industrial Classification (HSIC) Version 2.0, which is used in various economic surveys for classifying economic units into different industry classes.

     More detailed statistics are given in the Report on Monthly Survey of Retail Sales. Users can download this publication free of charge at the website of C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp320.jsp?productCode=B1080003).

     Users who have enquiries about the survey results may contact the Distribution Services Statistics Section of C&SD (Tel: 2802 1258; email: mrs@censtatd.gov.hk).

Ends/Monday, February 2, 2015
Issued at HKT 16:31

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