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Provisional statistics of retail sales for July 2014
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     The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released the latest figures on retail sales today (August 28).

     The value of total retail sales in July 2014, provisionally estimated at $38.7 billion, decreased by 3.1% over a year earlier. The revised estimate of the value of total retail sales in June 2014 decreased by 6.9% over the same period a year earlier. For the first seven months of 2014, total retail sales decreased by 1.5% in value over the same period a year earlier.

     After netting out the effect of price changes over the same period, the volume of total retail sales in July 2014 decreased by 4.5% over a year earlier. The revised estimate of the volume of total retail sales in June 2014 decreased by 7.5% over the same period a year earlier. For the first seven months of 2014, total retail sales decreased by 1.5% in volume over the same period a year earlier.

     Analysed by broad type of retail outlet in descending order of value of sales and comparing July 2014 with July 2013, the value of sales of wearing apparel increased by 5.0%. This was followed by sales of commodities in supermarkets (+5.8% in value); medicines and cosmetics (+14.3%); food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (+7.5%); other consumer goods, not elsewhere classified (+5.5%); motor vehicles and parts (+5.4%); fuels (+1.3%); footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories (+10.5%); books, newspapers, stationery and gifts (+4.3%); furniture and fixtures (+5.4%); Chinese drugs and herbs (+7.7%); and optical shops (+8.5%).

     On the other hand, the value of sales of jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts decreased by 22.2% in July 2014 compared with a year earlier. This was followed by sales of commodities in department stores (-1.3% in value); electrical goods and photographic equipment (-10.4%); and miscellaneous consumer durable goods (-16.6%).

     Based on the seasonally adjusted series, the value of total retail sales decreased by 2.6% in the three months ending July 2014 compared with the preceding three-month period, while the volume of total retail sales decreased by 4.0%.

     These retail sales statistics measure the sales receipts in respect of goods sold by local retail establishments and are primarily intended for gauging the short-term business performance of the local retail sector. They cover consumer spending on goods but not on services (such as those on housing, catering, medical care and health services, transport and communication, financial services, education and entertainment) which account for about 50% of the overall consumer spending. Moreover, they include spending on goods by visitors in Hong Kong but not by Hong Kong residents outside Hong Kong. Hence they should not be regarded as indicators for measuring overall consumer spending.

     Users interested in the trend of overall consumer spending should refer to the data series of private consumption expenditure (PCE), which is a major component of the Gross Domestic Product published at quarterly intervals. Compiled from a wide range of data sources, PCE covers consumer spending on both goods (including goods purchased from all channels) and services by Hong Kong residents whether locally or abroad. Please refer to the Census and Statistics Department publication "Gross Domestic Product (Quarterly)" for more details.

Commentary

     A Government spokesman noted that retail sales recorded a narrower year-on-year decline in July than in the preceding month. The notable fall in sales of jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts remained the main drag, conceivably indicating the fall-off in visitor spending on some big-ticket items against the still high base of comparison in the same period last year. Nonetheless, sales of many other outlets that are more closely related to local consumption maintained moderate growth.

     The spokesman added that looking ahead, the retail business will hopefully turn more stable in the coming months as the high base effects gradually wane. However, the downside risks stemming from the recent slackening in tourist spending and various external uncertainties warrant close watch. We will stay alert and monitor the retail business situation for its possible impact on economic growth momentum and employment situation going forward.

Further information

     Table 1 presents the revised figures on value index and value of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for June 2014 and the provisional figures for July 2014.

     Table 2 presents the revised figures on volume index of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for June 2014 and the provisional figures for July 2014.

     Table 3 shows the movements of the value and volume of total retail sales in terms of the year-on-year rate of change for a month compared with the same month in the preceding year based on the original series, and in terms of the rate of change for a three-month period compared with the preceding three-month period based on the seasonally adjusted series.

     The classification of retail establishments follows the Hong Kong Standard Industrial Classification (HSIC) Version 2.0, which is used in various economic surveys for classifying economic units into different industry classes.

     More detailed statistics are given in the Report on Monthly Survey of Retail Sales. Users can download this publication free of charge at the website of C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp320.jsp?productCode=B1080003).

     Users who have enquiries about the survey results may contact the Distribution Services Statistics Section of C&SD (Tel: 2802 1258; email: [email protected]).

Ends/Thursday, August 28, 2014
Issued at HKT 16:30

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