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Provisional statistics of retail sales for January 2014
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     The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released the latest figures on retail sales today (March 3).

     The value of total retail sales in January 2014, provisionally estimated at $54.6 billion, increased by 14.5% over a year earlier. The revised estimate of the value of total retail sales in December 2013 increased by 5.7% over the same period a year earlier.

     After netting out the effect of price changes over the same period, the volume of total retail sales in January 2014 increased by 16.8% over a year earlier. The revised estimate of the volume of total retail sales in December 2013 increased by 6.1% over the same period a year earlier.

     In interpreting the figures for January, it should be noted that retail sales tend to show greater volatility in the first two months of a year owing to the timing of the Lunar New Year. The local consumer spending normally attains a seasonal high immediately before the Festival. As the Lunar New Year fell on January 31 this year but on February 10 last year, the above year-on-year comparison might have been affected by this factor to a certain extent.

     Analysed by broad type of retail outlet and comparing January 2014 with January 2013, and also bearing in mind the effect due to the difference in the timing of the Lunar New Year as mentioned above, the value of sales of jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts increased by 10.8%. This was followed by sales of wearing apparel (+14.6% in value); miscellaneous consumer durable goods (+90.5%); commodities in supermarkets (+20.1%); commodities in department stores (+13.4%); medicines and cosmetics (+13.9%); food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (+20.0%); other consumer goods, not elsewhere classified (+13.6%); footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories (+23.6%); fuels (+1.7%); books, newspapers, stationery and gifts (+6.8%); Chinese drugs and herbs (+12.9%); and optical shops (+16.4%).

     On the other hand, the value of sales of electrical goods and photographic equipment decreased by 18.2% in January 2014 compared with a year earlier. This was followed by sales of motor vehicles and parts (-13.7% in value); and furniture and fixtures (-8.8%).

     Based on the seasonally adjusted series, the value of total retail sales increased by 4.9% in the three months ending January 2014 compared with the preceding three-month period, while the volume of total retail sales increased by 6.6%.

     These retail sales statistics are primarily intended to measure the sales receipts in respect of goods sold by local retail establishments, for gauging the short-term business performance of the local retail sector. They cover consumer spending on goods but not on services. Moreover, they include spending on goods by visitors in Hong Kong but not by Hong Kong residents outside Hong Kong. Hence they should not be regarded as a comprehensive indicator of overall consumer spending.

     Users interested in the trend of overall consumer spending should refer to the data series of private consumption expenditure (PCE), which is a major component of the Gross Domestic Product. Compiled from a wide range of data sources, PCE covers consumer spending on both goods (including goods purchased from all channels) and services by Hong Kong residents whether domestically or abroad.

Commentary

     A Government spokesman noted that retail sales recorded an appreciable year-on-year rise in January 2014. The surge however was partly affected by the difference in timing of the Lunar New Year, which fell in late January and early February this year but in mid-February last year. It would be more meaningful to analyse the retail sales figures for January and February combined for a clearer picture of the underlying trend.

     The spokesman added that looking ahead, the favourable job and income conditions and sustained growth of inbound tourism should continue to render support to retail business in the near term. However, we need to closely monitor the external economic developments, especially any change in the US monetary policy, and how they may affect the global economic and financial market situations and hence local consumer sentiment down the road.

Further information

     Table 1 presents the revised figures on value index and value of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for December 2013 and the provisional figures for January 2014.

     Table 2 presents the revised figures on volume index of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for December 2013 and the provisional figures for January 2014.

     Table 3 shows the movements of the value and volume of total retail sales in terms of the year-on-year rate of change for a month compared with the same month in the preceding year based on the original series, and in terms of the rate of change for a three-month period compared with the preceding three-month period based on the seasonally adjusted series.

     The classification of retail establishments follows the Hong Kong Standard Industrial Classification (HSIC) Version 2.0, which is used in various economic surveys for classifying economic units into different industry classes.

     More detailed statistics are given in the Report on Monthly Survey of Retail Sales. Users can download this publication free of charge at the website of C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp320.jsp?productCode=B1080003).

     Users who have enquiries about the survey results may contact the Distribution Services Statistics Section of C&SD (Tel: 2802 1258; e-mail: mrs@censtatd.gov.hk).

Ends/Monday, March 3, 2014
Issued at HKT 16:30

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