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The Long Term Housing Strategy Steering Committee held its eighth meeting today (June 20).
At today's meeting, Members revisited the methodology for the projections of long-term housing demand for the period 2013/14 to 2022/23. The projections have taken into account a number of factors, including the net increase in the number of households, those displaced by redevelopment, and those who are inadequately housed. The projections are premised on a large number of socio-economic variables which may change over time in response to the changes in the latest policies, programmes and statistical trends, all of which may change over time, and the household projection is also dynamic. An econometric modelling exercise was therefore conducted to produce results under different scenarios to reflect the housing demand under different economic and property market conditions.
On the net increase in the number of households, this is projected based on the Census and Statistics Department's domestic household projections, which have already taken into account demographic changes including ageing, smaller household size, the increasing number of single person households, the lower fertility rate and longer life expectancy at birth, etc, as well as factors affecting the movement of Hong Kong residents such as Hong Kong people living and working in the Mainland, Type I babies (whose fathers are Hong Kong residents) and Type II babies (whose parents are both non-Hong Kong residents), One-way Permit Holders and various entry of talents/professionals schemes and expatriates.
For the projection on the number of inadequately housed households, reference has been drawn from the results of the Survey on Subdivided Units in Hong Kong commissioned by the Steering Committee, as well as the estimated number of households living in temporary housing and non-residential buildings, or sharing their units with other households.
According to the preliminary projection results based on the above methodology, the projected total housing supply target for the period 2013/14 to 2022/23 will be around 447 000 units.
"The projection methodology and preliminary results were endorsed by the Steering Committee at the meeting. We will release the consultation document on the Long Term Housing Strategy later this year and consult the public on the housing demand projection during the three-month public consultation period," said the Secretary for Transport and Housing, Professor Anthony Cheung Bing-leung, who is also the Chairman of the Steering Committee.
Members also discussed the role of the private sector and other housing delivery agencies in the provision of housing today.
Ends/Thursday, June 20, 2013
Issued at HKT 20:04
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