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Provisional statistics of retail sales for January 2013
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     The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released the latest figures on retail sales today (March 4).

     The value of total retail sales in January 2013, provisionally estimated at $47.7 billion, increased by 10.5% over a year earlier. After netting out the effect of price changes over the same period, the volume of total retail sales increased by 10.4% in January 2013 compared with a year earlier. The relevant components of the Consumer Price Index are used as deflators.

     In interpreting these figures, it should be noted that retail sales tend to show greater volatility in the first two months of a year owing to the timing of the Lunar New Year. The local consumer spending normally attains a seasonal high immediately before the Festival. As the Lunar New Year fell on February 10 this year but on January 23 last year, the above year-on-year comparison might have been affected by this factor to a certain extent.

     The revised estimate of the value of total retail sales in December 2012, at $47.0 billion, increased by 9.1% over December 2011, while the volume of total retail sales increased by 8.5%.

     Analysed by broad type of retail outlet and comparing January 2013 with January 2012, and also bearing in mind the effect due to the difference in the timing of the Lunar New Year as mentioned above, the volume of sales of jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts increased by 10.0%. This was followed by sales of commodities in department stores (+0.4% in volume); electrical goods and photographic equipment (+27.4%); medicines and cosmetics (+7.3%); miscellaneous consumer durable goods (+212.6%); motor vehicles and parts (+46.8%); fuels (+2.9%); furniture and fixtures (+7.5%); Chinese drugs and herbs (+11.6%); and optical shops (+10.5%).

     On the other hand, the volume of sales of wearing apparel decreased by 3.3% in January 2013 compared with a year earlier. This was followed by sales of commodities in supermarkets (-5.3% in volume); food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (-2.5%); other consumer goods, not elsewhere classified (-8.8%); footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories (-6.5%); and books, newspapers, stationery and gifts (-1.5%).

     Based on the seasonally adjusted series, the volume of total retail sales increased by 6.2% in the three months ending January 2013 compared with the preceding three-month period.

     These retail sales statistics are primarily intended to measure the sales receipts in respect of goods sold by local retail establishments, for gauging the short-term business performance of the local retail sector. They cover consumer spending on goods but not on services. Moreover, they include spending on goods by visitors in Hong Kong but not by Hong Kong residents outside Hong Kong. Hence they should not be regarded as a comprehensive indicator of overall consumer spending.

     Users interested in the trend of overall consumer spending should refer to the data series of private consumption expenditure (PCE), which is a major component of the Gross Domestic Product. Compiled from a wide range of data sources, PCE covers consumer spending on both goods (including goods purchased from all channels) and services by Hong Kong residents whether domestically or abroad.

Commentary

     A Government spokesman noted that retail sales grew notably further in January 2013 over a year earlier. In light of the possible distortions due to the difference in timing of the Lunar New Year, which fell in February this year but in January last year, it would be more meaningful to analyse the retail sales figures for January and February combined for a clearer picture of the underlying trend.

     The spokesman added that looking ahead, the broadly stable labour market conditions and further growth in inbound tourism should remain supportive to the retail business in the near term. Nevertheless, the fluid external environment would still warrant our vigilance.

Further information

     Table 1 presents the revised figures on value index and value of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for December 2012 and the provisional figures for January 2013. The value index is compiled with the average monthly value index of retail sales from October 2009 to September 2010 taken as 100.

     Table 2 presents the revised figures on volume index of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for December 2012 and the provisional figures for January 2013. The volume index is compiled with the average monthly volume index of retail sales from October 2009 to September 2010 taken as 100.

     Table 3 shows the movement of the volume of total retail sales in terms of the year-on-year rate of change for a month compared with the same month in the preceding year based on the original series, and in terms of the rate of change for a three-month period compared with the preceding three-month period based on the seasonally adjusted series.

     The classification of retail establishments follows the Hong Kong Standard Industrial Classification (HSIC) Version 2.0, which is used in various economic surveys for classifying economic units into different industry classes.

     More detailed statistics are given in the Report on Monthly Survey of Retail Sales. Users can download this publication free of charge at the website of C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp320.jsp?productCode=B1080003).

     Users who have enquiries about the survey results may contact the Distribution Services Statistics Section of C&SD (Tel.: 2802 1258; e-mail: [email protected]).

Ends/Monday, March 4, 2013
Issued at HKT 16:30

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