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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (October 22) the results of the Quarterly Business Tendency Survey for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2010.
Business situation
For all surveyed sectors taken together, more respondents expect their business situation to be better (28%), as compared to those expecting it to be worse (6%), in Q4 2010 over Q3 2010. While the proportion of respondents with favourable business outlook for Q4 2010 (28%) is less than that of 32% in the previous survey round, the prevalence of optimistic business expectations among respondents remains broadly unchanged.
Analysed by sector, respondents in almost all the surveyed sectors have favourable business outlook for Q4 2010 on balance. In particular, significantly more respondents in the retail; real estate; and financing and insurance sectors expect their business situation to be better, as compared to those expecting it to be worse, in Q4 2010 over Q3 2010. In the manufacturing sector, however, the proportion of respondents with favourable business outlook is broadly the same as that with unfavourable business outlook.
A spokesman of the C&SD cautioned that the results of the survey should be interpreted with care. "In this type of survey on expectations, the views collected in the survey are affected by the events in the community occurring around the time of enumeration, and it is difficult to establish precisely the extent to which respondents”¦ perception of the future accords with the underlying trends." The enumeration period for this survey round was from September 7, 2010 to October 13, 2010.
Volume of business/output
Respondents in all the surveyed sectors expect an increase in volume of business/output in Q4 2010 over Q3 2010 on balance. Significantly more respondents in the retail; real estate; accommodation and food services (mainly referring to the services provided by hotels and restaurants); construction; and financing and insurance sectors expect their volume of business/output to increase, as compared to those expecting it to decrease.
Employment
Respondents in all the surveyed sectors expect their employment to increase in Q4 2010 over Q3 2010 on balance. The real estate; financing and insurance; and retail sectors have significantly more respondents expecting their employment to increase, as against those expecting it to decrease.
Selling price/service charge
Respondents in almost all the surveyed sectors expect their selling price/service charge to go up in Q4 2010 over Q3 2010 on balance, and those in the accommodation and food services; and real estate sectors have significantly more favourable expectation in particular.
Further information
The survey gathers views on short-term business performance from the senior management of about 540 prominent establishments in various sectors in Hong Kong with a view to providing a quick reference, with minimum time lag, for predicting the short-term future economic performance of the local economy.
As from the Q1 2009 survey, the Hong Kong Standard Industrial Classification Version 2.0 (HSIC V2.0) has been adopted for classifying the economic activities undertaken by surveyed establishments, based on which the industry sectors to which the establishments belong are determined. The survey covers ten major sectors in Hong Kong, including the manufacturing; construction; import/export trade and wholesale; retail; accommodation and food services; transportation, storage and courier services; information and communications; financing and insurance; real estate; and professional and business services sectors.
Views collected in the survey refer only to those of respondents on their own establishments rather than those on the respective sectors they are engaged in; and are limited to the expected direction of quarter-to-quarter change (e.g. "up", "same" or "down") but not the magnitude of change. In collecting views on the quarter-to-quarter changes, if the variable in question may be subject to seasonal variations, respondents are asked to provide the expected changes after excluding the normal seasonal variations.
Survey results are generally presented as "net balance", i.e. the difference between the percentage of respondents choosing "up" over that choosing "down". The percentage distribution of respondents among various response categories (e.g. "up", "same" and "down") reflects how varied their business expectations are. The "net balance", with its appropriate sign, indicates the direction of expected change in the variable concerned. A positive sign indicates a likely upward trend while a negative sign, a likely downward trend. However, the magnitude of the "net balance" reflects only the prevalence of optimism or pessimism, but not the magnitude of expected change, since information relating to such magnitude is not collected in the survey.
Furthermore, owing to sample size constraint, care should be taken in interpreting survey results involving a small percentage (e.g. less than 10%) of respondents in individual sectors.
Chart 1 shows the views on expected changes in business situation for the period Q4 2009 to Q4 2010.
Table 1 shows the net balances of views on expectations in respect of different variables for Q4 2010.
The survey results are published in greater detail in the "Report on Quarterly Business Tendency Survey, Q4 2010". Users can download the publication free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/statistical_report/commerce_and_industry/index.jsp).
Print version of the publication is available for sale at HK$13 per issue. Purchase can be done in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address : 19/F Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel. : 2582 3025) or through mail order by returning a completed order form which can be downloaded from the C&SD”¦s website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat/mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp). Print version of the publication is also available for sale online at the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.bookstore.gov.hk).
Enquiries about the survey results may be directed to the Business Expectation Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel: 2805 6112).
Ends/Friday, October 22, 2010
Issued at HKT 16:33
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