****************************************************
The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released the latest figures on retail sales today (August 2).
The value of total retail sales in June 2010, provisionally estimated at $24.3 billion, increased by 15.3% over a year earlier. After netting out the effect of price changes over the same period, the volume of total retail sales increased by 12.1% in June 2010 when compared with a year earlier. The relevant components of the Consumer Price Index are used as deflators.
The revised estimate of the value of total retail sales in May 2010, at $25.9 billion, increased by 19.7% over May 2009, while the volume of total retail sales increased by 16.3%.
Taking the first half of 2010 together, total retail sales increased by 17.9% in value or 14.7% in volume over the same period a year earlier.
Analysed by broad type of retail outlet and comparing June 2010 with June 2009, the volume of sales of motor vehicles and parts increased the most, by 35.1%. This was followed by sales of electrical goods and photographic equipment (+26.0% in volume); jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts (+18.3%); commodities in department stores (+17.4%); footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories (+11.6%); wearing apparel (+10.0%); furniture and fixtures (+10.0%); food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (+8.5%); miscellaneous consumer goods (+5.7%); miscellaneous consumer durable goods (+3.6%); fuels (+1.7%); and commodities in supermarkets (+1.3%).
Based on the seasonally adjusted series, the volume of total retail sales decreased by 2.6% in the second quarter of 2010 when compared with the preceding quarter.
These retail sales statistics are primarily intended to measure the sales receipts in respect of goods sold by local retail establishments, for gauging the short-term business performance of the local retail sector. They cover consumer spending on goods but not on services. Moreover, they include spending on goods by visitors in Hong Kong but not by Hong Kong residents outside Hong Kong. Hence they should not be regarded as a comprehensive indicator of overall consumer spending. In this context, it may be noted that the share of consumer spending on services in overall consumer spending has been increasing over time.
Users interested in the trend of overall consumer spending should refer to the quarterly series of private consumption expenditure (PCE), which is a major component of the Gross Domestic Product. Compiled from a wide range of data sources, PCE covers consumer spending on both goods (including goods purchased from all channels) and services by Hong Kong residents whether domestically or abroad.
Commentary
A Government spokesman says that retail sales continued to grow distinctly in June over a year earlier, reflecting the relatively firm local consumer sentiment and the rapid expansion of inbound tourism. However, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the performance of retail sales in the second quarter was not as robust as in the first quarter.
The spokesman adds that looking ahead, the increased uncertainty in the external environment stemming from the fragile nature of the recovery in the advanced economies will remain a concern, given its possible dampening effect on consumer sentiment. Nevertheless, the continuous strong expansion of inbound tourism should still be favourable to retail business.
Further information
Table 1 presents the revised figures on value index and value of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for May 2010 and the provisional figures for June 2010. The value index is compiled with the average monthly value index of retail sales from October 2004 to September 2005 taken as 100.
Table 2 presents the revised figures on volume index of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for May 2010 and the provisional figures for June 2010. The volume index is compiled with the average monthly volume index of retail sales from October 2004 to September 2005 taken as 100.
Table 3 shows the movement of the volume of total retail sales in terms of the year-on-year rate of change for a month compared with the same month in the preceding year based on the original series, and in terms of the rate of change for a three-month period compared with the preceding three-month period based on the seasonally adjusted series.
The classification of retail establishments follows the Hong Kong Standard Industrial Classification (HSIC), which is used in various economic surveys for classifying economic units into different industry classes. Upon the implementation of the new HSIC Version 2.0 by the C&SD in October 2008, the Monthly Survey of Retail Sales has been enhanced to adopt the new classification in compiling the retail sales statistics. Starting from the reference month of January 2009, all the retail sales statistics are compiled based on the HSIC Version 2.0.
The series of retail sales statistics under the HSIC Version 2.0 has also been backcasted to the base period (i.e. October 2004 to September 2005). Users who are interested in the backcasted series or have enquiries about the survey results may contact the Distribution Services Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel. : 2802 1258 or E-mail : mrs@censtatd.gov.hk).
More detailed statistics are given in the Report on Monthly Survey of Retail Sales. Users can download this publication free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/statistical_report/commerce_and_industry/index.jsp).
Ends/Monday, August 2, 2010
Issued at HKT 16:30
NNNN