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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released the latest figures on retail sales today (February 1).
The value of total retail sales in December 2009, provisionally estimated at $29.4 billion, increased by 16.0% over a year earlier. After netting out the effect of price changes over the same period, the volume of total retail sales increased by 11.3% in December 2009 when compared with a year earlier. The relevant components of the Consumer Price Index are used as deflators.
The revised estimate of the value of total retail sales in November 2009, at $22.9 billion, increased by 11.9% when compared with November 2008, while the volume of total retail sales increased by 10.0%.
Analysed by broad type of retail outlet and comparing December 2009 with December 2008, the volume of sales of jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts increased the most, by 30.4%. This was followed by sales of motor vehicles and parts (+29.8% in volume); electrical goods and photographic equipment (+23.0%); wearing apparel (+9.6%); commodities in department stores (+9.3%); miscellaneous consumer goods (+8.4%); miscellaneous consumer durable goods (+4.7%); furniture and fixtures (+4.0%); footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories (+3.6%); food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (+2.1%); and fuels (+1.1%).
On the other hand, the volume of sales of commodities in supermarkets decreased by 3.8% in December 2009 when compared with a year earlier.
Based on the seasonally adjusted series, the volume of total retail sales increased by 8.6% in the fourth quarter of 2009 when compared with the preceding quarter.
For 2009 as a whole, total retail sales increased by 0.6% in value but decreased by 0.8% in volume when compared with 2008.
Analysed by broad type of retail outlet and comparing the whole year of 2009 with 2008, the volume of sales of electrical goods and photographic equipment increased the most, by 7.0%. This was followed by sales of fuels (+5.5% in volume); jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts (+2.5%); footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories (+0.7%); and miscellaneous consumer durable goods (+0.5%).
On the other hand, the volume of sales of motor vehicles and parts in 2009 decreased the most, by 17.1% when compared with a year earlier. This was followed by sales of wearing apparel (-5.0% in volume); furniture and fixtures (-3.9%); miscellaneous consumer goods (-1.9%); and commodities in supermarkets (-1.4%).
These retail sales statistics are primarily intended to measure the sales receipts in respect of goods sold by local retail establishments, for gauging the short-term business performance of the local retail sector. They cover consumer spending on goods but not on services. Moreover, they include spending on goods by visitors in Hong Kong but not by Hong Kong residents outside Hong Kong. Hence they should not be regarded as a comprehensive indicator of overall consumer spending. In this context, it may be noted that the share of consumer spending on services in overall consumer spending has been increasing over time.
Users interested in the trend of overall consumer spending should refer to the quarterly series of private consumption expenditure (PCE), which is a major component of the Gross Domestic Product. Compiled from a wide range of data sources, PCE covers consumer spending on both goods (including goods purchased from all channels) and services by Hong Kong residents whether domestically or abroad.
Commentary
A Government spokesman says that retail sales picked up notably further in December 2009. With the economic recovery gathering pace, consumer sentiment strengthened during the festive season, as evidenced by the marked increases in the sales of big ticket items. The further growth of inbound tourism also contributed. For 2009 as a whole, retail sales volume recorded only a small decrease over 2008.
The spokesman adds that consumer confidence should remain firm going forward, as the economy is on track to recovery and labour market has been improving.
Further information
Table 1 presents the revised figures on value index and value of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for November 2009 and the provisional figures for December 2009. Year-on-year changes for the whole year of 2009 are also shown. The value index is compiled with the average monthly value index of retail sales from October 2004 to September 2005 taken as 100.
Table 2 presents the revised figures on volume index of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for November 2009 and the provisional figures for December 2009. Year-on-year changes for the whole year of 2009 are also shown. The volume index is compiled with the average monthly volume index of retail sales from October 2004 to September 2005 taken as 100.
Table 3 shows the movement of the volume of total retail sales in terms of the year-on-year rate of change for a month compared with the same month in the preceding year based on the original series, and in terms of the rate of change for a three-month period compared with the preceding three-month period based on the seasonally adjusted series.
The classification of retail establishments follows the Hong Kong Standard Industrial Classification (HSIC), which is used in various economic surveys for classifying economic units into different industry classes. Upon the implementation of the new HSIC Version 2.0 by the C&SD in October 2008, the Monthly Survey of Retail Sales has been enhanced to adopt the new classification in compiling the retail sales statistics. Starting from the reference month of January 2009, all the retail sales statistics are compiled based on the HSIC Version 2.0.
The series of retail sales statistics under the HSIC Version 2.0 has also been backcasted to the base period (i.e. October 2004 to September 2005). Readers who are interested in the backcasted series or have enquiries about the survey results may contact the Distribution Services Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel: 2802 1258 or E-mail: mrs@censtatd.gov.hk).
Users can download the Report on Monthly Survey of Retail Sales free of charge at the website of the C&SD (http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/statistical_report/commerce_and_industry/index.jsp).
Print version of this publication is available for sale at HK$12.0 per issue. Purchase can be done in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address: 19/F Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel: 2582 3025) or through mail order by returning a completed order form which can be downloaded from the C&SD's website (http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat/mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp). Print version of this publication is also available for sale online at the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.bookstore.gov.hk).
Ends/Monday, February 1, 2010
Issued at HKT 16:32
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