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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (December 21) the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for November 2009. According to the Composite CPI, overall consumer prices rose by 0.5% in November 2009 over the same month a year earlier, smaller than that in October 2009 (2.2%). The larger year-on-year rate of change in October 2009 was attributable to the low base of comparison arising from the Government's payment of public housing rentals in October 2008, and such effect did not come into play in November. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rate of change in the Composite CPI (i.e. the underlying inflation rate) in November 2009 was -0.3%, same as that in October.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average monthly rate of change in the Composite CPI for the 3-month period from September to November 2009 was 1.0%, which compared to 0.4% for the 3-month period from August to October 2009. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the average monthly rate of change in the Composite CPI for the 3-month period from September to November 2009 was 0.2%, and that for the 3-month period from August to October 2009 was 0.1%.
Analysed by sub-index, the year-on-year rates of increase in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 1.0%, 0.5% and 0.1% respectively in November 2009, which compared to 5.2%, 1.3% and 0.1% respectively in October. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rates of change in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were -0.1%, -0.3% and -0.5% respectively in November 2009, which compared to -0.2%, -0.3% and -0.4% respectively in October.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, for the 3-month period from September to November 2009, the average monthly rates of change in the seasonally adjusted CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 2.0%, 0.7% and 0.4% respectively. The corresponding rates of change for the 3-month period from August to October 2009 were all 0.4%. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the corresponding average monthly rates of change in the seasonally adjusted CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) for the 3-month period from September to November 2009 were 0.1%, 0.2% and 0.2% respectively, and the corresponding rates of change for the 3-month period from August to October 2009 were 0.1%, 0.1% and 0.2% respectively.
Amongst the various CPI components, year-on-year increases in prices were recorded in November 2009 for electricity, gas and water (31.7% in the Composite CPI and 32.6% in the CPI(A)); alcoholic drinks and tobacco (21.8% in the Composite CPI and 25.2% in the CPI(A)); clothing and footwear (2.8% in the Composite CPI and 3.5% in the CPI(A)); miscellaneous goods (2.1% in the Composite CPI and 2.2% in the CPI(A)) and meals bought away from home (0.5% in the Composite CPI and 0.7% in the CPI(A)).
On the other hand, year-on-year decline in prices were recorded in November 2009 for durable goods (-3.5% in the Composite CPI and -3.8% in the CPI(A)), food (excluding meals bought away from home) (-2.2% in the Composite CPI and -2.6% in the CPI(A)) and miscellaneous services (-1.0% in the Composite CPI and -0.5% in the CPI(A)).
As for housing, both the Composite CPI and CPI(A) remained at the same level as November last year.
As for transport, the Composite CPI fell by 1.0% over a year earlier but the CPI(A) rose by 0.2%.
Taking the first eleven months of 2009 together, the Composite CPI rose by 0.5% over a year earlier. The corresponding increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 0.2%, 0.5% and 0.6%. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the Composite CPI, CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 1.0%, 1.0%, 1.1% and 1.0% respectively in the first eleven months of 2009 over a year earlier.
For the 3 months ended November 2009, the Composite CPI rose by 1.1% over a year earlier, while the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 2.3%, 0.8% and 0.1% respectively. The corresponding rates of change after netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures were -0.3%, -0.1%, -0.2% and -0.4% respectively.
For the 12 months ended November 2009, the Composite CPI was on average 0.6% higher than in the preceding 12-month period. The respective increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 0.3%, 0.6% and 0.8%. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures were 1.3%, 1.3%, 1.4% and 1.2% respectively.
Commentary
A government spokesman says that underlying Composite CPI inflation, on a year-on-year comparison, remained stable at a slightly negative level in November. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average monthly rate of change actually turned slightly positive over the recent months. This indicated that the deflationary pressure in the economy has progressively receded, now that the economic recovery is under way.
The spokesman adds that inflationary pressure should stay muted in the near term, as the economic recovery is still at its early stage and as import prices remain soft.
Further information
The CPIs and year-on-year rates of change at section level for November 2009 are shown in Table 1. The time series on the year-on-year rates of change in the CPIs before and after removing the effects of one-off measures are shown in Table 2. For discerning the latest trend in consumer prices, it is also useful to look at the changes in the seasonally adjusted CPIs. The corresponding time series on the average monthly rates of change during the latest 3 months for the seasonally adjusted CPIs are shown in Table 3. The rates of change in the original and the seasonally adjusted Composite CPI are presented graphically in Chart 1.
More detailed CPI data (including year-on-year comparison, month-to-month comparison and seasonally adjusted data series) are available in the monthly reports. Users can download the November 2009 issue of the Monthly Report on the Consumer Price Index free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/statistical_report/prices_household_expenditure/index.jsp). Print version of this publication is available for sale at HK$52 per issue. Purchase can be done in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address: 19/F Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel: 2582 3025) or through mail order by returning a completed order form which can be downloaded from the C&SD's website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat/mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp). Print version of this publication is also available for sale online at the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.bookstore.gov.hk).
For enquiries about the CPIs, please contact the Consumer Price Index Section of the C&SD at telephone no. 2805 6403 or email address cpi@censtatd.gov.hk.
Ends/Monday, December 21, 2009
Issued at HKT 16:33
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