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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (July 24) the results of the Quarterly Business Tendency Survey for the third quarter (Q3) of 2009.
Business Situation
For all surveyed sectors taken together, somewhat more respondents expect their business situation to be worse (28%), as compared to those expecting it to be better (20%), in Q3 2009 over Q2 2009. The impact brought about by the financial tsunami remains a concern for most respondents who expect their business situation to be worse.
Despite an overall unfavourable business outlook for Q3 2009, the situation has improved when compared with the results of the previous two survey rounds. The proportion of respondents expecting their business situation in Q3 2009 to be worse than that in the preceding quarter has fallen to 28%, as compared with 47% and 59% respectively in Q2 2009 and Q1 2009.
Analysed by sector, the accommodation and food services sector (mainly referring to the hotels and restaurants industries) continues to have the most unfavourable business outlook. Over 60% of respondents in this sector expect their business to deteriorate in Q3 2009. This is followed by the transportation, storage and courier services sector. Distinctly more respondents in this sector expect their business situation to be worse, as compared to those expecting it to be better, in Q3 2009 over Q2 2009.
On the other hand, discernible improvements are expected for the business situation in the information and communications, and financing and insurance sectors. More respondents in these two sectors expect their business situation to be better, as compared to those expecting it to be worse, in Q3 2009 over Q2 2009.
A spokesman of the C&SD cautioned that the results of the survey should be interpreted with care. ¡§In this type of survey on expectations, the views collected in the survey are affected by the events in the community occurring around the time of enumeration, and it is difficult to establish precisely the extent to which respondents¡¦ perception of the future accords with the underlying trends.¡¨ The enumeration period for this survey round was from June 9 to July 13, 2009.
Volume of Business/Output
Consistent with the expectation on the overall business situation, the accommodation and food services sector has the largest proportion of respondents expecting their volume of business to decrease in Q3 2009 as compared with Q2 2009. On the other hand, more respondents in the financing and insurance, and information and communications sectors expect their volume of business to increase, as against those expecting it to decrease, in Q3 2009 over Q2 2009.
Employment
When compared with the results of the previous survey round, despite the employment outlook in the import/export trade and wholesale sector in Q3 2009 remains less promising, respondents in most sectors have indicated an improvement in their employment outlook.
Selling Price/Service Charge
The majority of respondents in most sectors expect their selling price/service charge to remain broadly the same in Q3 2009 as compared with Q2 2009. On the other hand, significantly more respondents in the accommodation and food services expect their price of food provided/service charge to go down, as against those expecting it to go up. Respondents in the construction sector hold similar views on expected change in tender price.
Further Information
The survey gathers views on short-term business performance from the senior management of about 540 prominent establishments in various sectors in Hong Kong with a view to providing a quick reference, with minimum time lag, for predicting the short-term future economic performance of the local economy.
As from the Q1 2009 survey, the Hong Kong Standard Industrial Classification Version 2.0 (HSIC V2.0) has been adopted for classifying the economic activities undertaken by surveyed establishments, based on which the industry sectors to which the establishments belong are determined. The survey covers ten major sectors in Hong Kong, including the manufacturing; construction; import/export trade and wholesale; retail; accommodation and food services; transportation, storage and courier services; information and communications; financing and insurance; real estate; and professional and business services sectors.
Views collected in the survey refer only to those of respondents on their own establishments rather than those on the respective sectors they are engaged in; and are limited to the expected direction of quarter-to-quarter change (e.g. "up", "same" or "down") but not the magnitude of change. In collecting views on the quarter-to-quarter changes, if the variable in question may be subject to seasonal variations, respondents are asked to provide the expected changes after excluding the normal seasonal variations.
Survey results are generally presented as "net balance", i.e. the difference between the percentages of respondents choosing "up" over that choosing "down". The percentage distribution of respondents among various response categories (e.g. "up", "same" and "down") reflects how varied their business expectations are. The "net balance", with its appropriate sign, indicates the direction of expected change in the variable concerned. A positive sign indicates a likely upward trend while a negative sign, a likely downward trend. However, the magnitude of the "net balance" reflects only the prevalence of optimism or pessimism, but not the magnitude of expected change, since information relating to such magnitude is not collected in the survey.
Furthermore, owing to sample size constraint, care should be taken in interpreting survey results involving a small percentage (e.g. less than 10%) of respondents in individual sectors.
Chart 1 shows the views on expected changes in business situation for the period Q3 2008 to Q3 2009.
Table 1 shows the net balances on views on expectations in respect of different variables for Q3 2009.
The survey results are published in greater detail in the "Report on Quarterly Business Tendency Survey, Q3 2009". Users can download the publication free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/statistical_report/commerce_and_industry/index.jsp).
Print version of the publication is available for sale at HK$13 per issue. Purchase can be done in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address : 19/F Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel. : 2582 3025) or through mail order by returning a completed order form which can be downloaded from the C&SD¡¦s website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat/mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp). Print version of the publication is also available for sale online at the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.bookstore.gov.hk).
Enquiries about the survey results may be directed to the Business Expectation Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel.: 2805 6112).
Ends/Friday, July 24, 2009
Issued at HKT 16:30
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