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The business situation in the second quarter (Q2) of 2009 is generally expected to be worse than that in Q1 2009, according to results of the Quarterly Business Tendency Survey for Q2 2009 released by the Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) today (April 24).
Business Situation
For all surveyed sectors taken together, 47% of respondents expect their business situation to be worse, as compared with 11% of respondents expecting it to be better, in Q2 2009 over Q1 2009. Most respondents who expect their business situation to be worse in Q2 2009 when compared with the previous quarter indicate that their business will be affected by the financial tsunami.
Analysed by sector, the accommodation and food services sector (mainly referring to the hotels and restaurants industries) stands out to have the most unfavourable business outlook. 75% of respondents in this sector expect their business to deteriorate in Q2 2009. This is followed by the retail sector (73%); construction sector (58%); import/export trade and wholesale sector (54%); and transportation, storage and courier services sector (52%).
On the other hand, respondents in the manufacturing sector are relatively more optimistic. Slightly more respondents in this sector expect their business situation to be better as compared with those expecting it to be worse, in Q2 2009 over Q1 2009, mainly attributable to expected increase in demand for their products.
A spokesman of the C&SD cautioned that the results of the survey should be interpreted with care. "In this type of survey on expectations, the views collected in the survey are affected by the events in the community occurring around the time of enumeration, and it is difficult to establish precisely the extent to which respondents' perception of the future accords with the underlying trends." The enumeration period for this survey round was from March 9 to April 7, 2009.
Volume of Business/Output
Consistent with expectations on the overall business situation, significantly more respondents in most of the surveyed sectors expect their volume of business/output to decrease, as against those expecting it to increase, in Q2 2009 over Q1 2009. On the other hand, more respondents in the manufacturing sector expect their volume of production to increase in Q2 2009 as compared with Q1 2009.
Employment
Despite generally unfavourable expectations on business situation in Q2 2009, the majority of respondents in most sectors expect their number of persons engaged to remain broadly stable. On the other hand, respondents in the construction sector have more pessimistic outlook on employment level. Over half of the respondents in this sector expect their number of persons engaged to decrease in Q2 2009 as compared with the previous quarter.
Selling Price/Service Charge
In most sectors, significantly more respondents expect their selling price/service charge to go down, as compared with those expecting it to go up. In particular, around half of the respondents in the construction sector expect their tender price in Q2 2009 to be lower than that in the previous quarter.
Further Information
The survey gathers views on short-term business performance from the senior management of about 550 prominent establishments in various sectors in Hong Kong with a view to providing a quick reference, with minimum time lag, for predicting the short-term future economic performance of the local economy.
As from the Q1 2009 survey, the Hong Kong Standard Industrial Classification Version 2.0 (HSIC V2.0) has been adopted for classifying the economic activities undertaken by surveyed establishments, based on which the industry sectors to which the establishments belong are determined. The survey covers ten major sectors in Hong Kong, including the manufacturing; construction; import/export trade and wholesale; retail; accommodation and food services; transportation, storage and courier services; information and communications; financing and insurance; real estate; and professional and business services sectors.
Views collected in the survey refer only to those of respondents on their own establishments rather than those on the respective sectors they are engaged in; and are limited to the expected direction of quarter-to-quarter change (e.g. "up", "same" or "down") but not the magnitude of change. In collecting views on the quarter-to-quarter changes, if the variable in question may be subject to seasonal variations, respondents are asked to provide the expected changes after excluding the normal seasonal variations.
Survey results are generally presented as "net balance", i.e. the difference between the percentages of respondents choosing "up" over that choosing "down". The percentage distribution of respondents among various response categories (e.g. "up", "same" and "down") reflects how varied their business expectations are. The "net balance", with its appropriate sign, indicates the direction of expected change in the variable concerned. A positive sign indicates a likely upward trend while a negative sign, a likely downward trend. However, the magnitude of the "net balance" reflects only the prevalence of optimism or pessimism, but not the magnitude of expected change, since information relating to such magnitude is not collected in the survey.
Furthermore, owing to sample size constraint, care should be taken in interpreting survey results involving a small percentage (e.g. less than 10%) of respondents in individual sectors.
Table 1 shows the net balances on views on expectations in respect of different variables.
The survey results are published in greater detail in the "Report on Quarterly Business Tendency Survey, Q2 2009". Users can download the publication free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/statistical_report/commerce_and_industry/index.jsp).
Print version of the publication is available for sale at HK$13 per issue. Purchase can be done in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address : 19/F Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel. : 2582 3025) or through mail order by returning a completed order form which can be downloaded from the C&SD's website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat/mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp). Print version of the publication is also available for sale online at the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.bookstore.gov.hk).
Enquiries about the survey results may be directed to the Business Expectation Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel.: 2805 6112).
Ends/Friday, April 24, 2009
Issued at HKT 16:30
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