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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released the latest figures on retail sales today (April 2).
The value of total retail sales in February 2009, provisionally estimated at $19.9 billion, decreased by 12.6% when compared with a year earlier. After netting out the effect of price changes over the same period, the volume of total retail sales decreased by 13.8% in February 2009 when compared with a year earlier.
The revised estimate of the value of total retail sales in January 2009, at $27.5 billion, increased by 7.4% over January 2008, while the volume of total retail sales increased by 5.4%.
In interpreting these figures, it should be noted that retail sales tend to show greater volatility in the first two months of a year due to the timing of the Lunar New Year. The local consumer spending normally attains a seasonal high immediately before the Festival. As the Lunar New Year fell on January 26 this year but on February 7 last year, it is more appropriate to analyse the retail sales figures for January and February taken together in making year-on-year comparison.
Taking the first two months of 2009 together, total retail sales decreased by 2.0% in value or 3.6% in volume over the same period a year earlier.
Analysed by broad type of retail outlet and comparing the combined total for January and February 2009 with a year earlier, the volume of sales of motor vehicles and parts decreased the most, by 35.6%. This was followed by sales of furniture and fixtures (-9.1% in volume); wearing apparel (-6.8%); commodities in department stores (-6.6%); miscellaneous consumer durable goods (-4.8%); footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories (-4.3%); jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts (-2.7%); miscellaneous consumer goods (-2.2%); food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (-1.0%); and commodities in supermarkets (-0.8%). On the other hand, the volume of sales of electrical goods and photographic equipment increased by 7.3% while that of fuels increased by 6.0%.
Based on the seasonally adjusted series, the volume of total retail sales decreased by 1.0% in the three months ending February 2009 compared with the preceding three-month period.
These retail sales statistics are primarily intended to measure the sales receipts in respect of goods sold by local retail establishments, for gauging the short-term business performance of the local retail sector. They cover consumer spending on goods but not on services. Moreover, they include spending on goods by visitors in Hong Kong but not by Hong Kong residents outside Hong Kong. Hence they should not be regarded as a comprehensive indicator of overall consumer spending. In this context, it may be noted that the share of consumer spending on services in overall consumer spending has been increasing over time.
Users interested in the trend of overall consumer spending should refer to the quarterly series of private consumption expenditure (PCE), which is a major component of the Gross Domestic Product. Compiled from a wide range of data sources, PCE covers consumer spending on both goods (including goods purchased from all channels) and services by Hong Kong residents whether domestically or abroad.
Commentary
The Government spokesman says that retail sales weakened in February 2009, as the deepening global economic downturn continued to weigh on local consumer spending. The sharp year-on-year decline in February 2009 was distorted to a large extent by the timing of the Lunar New Year, which fell in January this year but February last year. Combining the figures for January and February to remove such a distortion, there was a much more moderate decline in retail sales over the same period last year.
The spokesman comments further that the near-term prospect of retail business will continue to be clouded by the economic downturn and the deterioration in labour market conditions. Yet, the Government's efforts to preserve employment and to promote inbound tourism should render some support to consumer confidence as well as the retail business.
Further information
The volume of retail sales is derived from the value of retail sales after adjusting for price changes. The relevant components of the Consumer Price Index are used as deflators.
Table 1 presents the revised figures on value index and value of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for January 2009 and the provisional figures for February 2009 (and also those for January and February combined). The value index is compiled with the average monthly value index of retail sales from October 2004 to September 2005 taken as 100.
Table 2 presents the revised figures on volume index of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for January 2009 and the provisional figures for February 2009 (and also those for January and February combined). The volume index is compiled with the average monthly volume index of retail sales from October 2004 to September 2005 taken as 100.
Table 3 shows the movement of the volume of total retail sales in terms of the year-on-year rate of change for a month compared with the same month in the preceding year based on the original series, and in terms of the rate of change for a three-month period compared with the preceding three-month period based on the seasonally adjusted series.
The classification of retail establishments follows the Hong Kong Standard Industrial Classification (HSIC), which is used in various economic surveys for classifying economic units into different industry classes. Upon the implementation of the new HSIC Version 2.0 by the C&SD in October 2008, the Monthly Survey of Retail Sales has been enhanced to adopt the HSIC Version 2.0 in compiling the retail sales statistics. Starting from the reference month of January 2009, all the retail sales statistics, unless otherwise specified, are compiled based on the HSIC Version 2.0.
The series of retail sales statistics under HSIC Version 2.0 has also been backcasted to the base period (i.e. October 2004 to September 2005). Users who are interested in the backcasted series or have enquiries about the survey results may contact the Distribution Services Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel. : 2802 1258 or E-mail : mrs@censtatd.gov.hk).
Users can download the Report on Monthly Survey of Retail Sales free of charge at the website of the C&SD (http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/statistical_report/commerce_and_industry/index.jsp).
Print version of this publication is available for sale at HK$12.0 per issue. Purchase can be done in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address : 19/F Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel. : 2582 3025) or through mail order by returning a completed order form which can be downloaded from the C&SD's website (http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat/mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp). Print version of this publication is also available for sale online at the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.bookstore.gov.hk).
Ends/Thursday, April 2, 2009
Issued at HKT 16:30
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