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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released the latest figures on retail sales today (March 2).
The value of total retail sales in January 2009, provisionally estimated at $27.5 billion, increased by 7.4% over a year earlier. After netting out the effect of price changes over the same period, the volume of total retail sales increased by 5.4% in January 2009 over a year earlier.
It should be noted that as the Lunar New Year fell in late January this year but in early February last year, the above year-on-year comparison might have been affected by this factor to a certain extent.
The revised estimate of the value of total retail sales in December 2008, at $25.3 billion, increased by 1.1% over December 2007, while the volume of total retail sales decreased by 0.5%.
Analysed by broad type of retail outlet and comparing January 2009 with January 2008, the volume of sales of footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories increased the most, by 17.2%. This was followed by sales of commodities in supermarkets (+15.7% in volume); electrical goods and photographic equipment (+15.1%); commodities in department stores (+9.9%); wearing apparel (+8.1%); fuels (+8.0%); food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (+5.8%); and miscellaneous consumer goods (+4.9%).
On the other hand, the volume of sales of motor vehicles and parts decreased the most, by 36.3% in January 2009 compared with a year earlier. This was followed by sales of furniture and fixtures (-9.3% in volume); and miscellaneous consumer durable goods (-6.7%).
Based on the seasonally adjusted series, the volume of total retail sales in the three months ending January 2009 increased by 0.2% compared with the preceding three-month period.
These retail sales statistics are primarily intended to measure the sales receipts in respect of goods sold by local retail establishments, for gauging the short-term business performance of the local retail sector. They cover consumer spending on goods but not on services. Moreover, they include spending on goods by visitors in Hong Kong but not by Hong Kong residents outside Hong Kong. Hence they should not be regarded as a comprehensive indicator of overall consumer spending. In this context, it may be noted that the share of consumer spending on services in overall consumer spending has been increasing over time.
Users interested in the trend of overall consumer spending should refer to the quarterly series of private consumption expenditure (PCE), which is a major component of the Gross Domestic Product. Compiled from a wide range of data sources, PCE covers consumer spending on both goods (including goods purchased from all channels) and services by Hong Kong residents whether domestically or abroad.
Commentary
The Government spokesman says that retail sales volume reverted to a moderate year-on-year increase in January 2009. The timing of the Lunar New Year, which fell in January this year but February last year, could have contributed to a more favourable year-on-year comparison in January 2009. But it should be noted that the increase in January 2009 was attained against a high base of comparison in January 2008, when retail sales volume rose by 17.8% year-on-year. This indicates that consumer sentiment has held fairly firm in recent months despite the adverse external environment.
The spokesman comments further that the performance of retail business in the near term will continue to hinge on the evolution of the global financial turmoil and its impact on Hong Kong. Nevertheless, the Government measures announced in last year and in the 2009-10 Budget will provide some cushioning effect to the economy. Also, the additional measures to further facilitate Mainland residents to visit Hong Kong under the Individual Visit Scheme and the Government¡¦s efforts to promote inbound tourism should also render support to the retail trade.
Further information
The volume of retail sales is derived from the value of retail sales after adjusting for price changes. The relevant components of the Consumer Price Index are used as deflators.
Table 1 presents the revised figures on value index and value of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for December 2008 and the provisional figures for January 2009. The value index is compiled with the average monthly value index of retail sales from October 2004 to September 2005 taken as 100.
Table 2 presents the revised figures on volume index of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for December 2008 and the provisional figures for January 2009. The volume index is compiled with the average monthly volume index of retail sales from October 2004 to September 2005 taken as 100.
Table 3 shows the movement of the volume of total retail sales in terms of the year-on-year rate of change for a month compared with the same month in the preceding year based on the original series, and in terms of the rate of change for a three-month period compared with the preceding three-month period based on the seasonally adjusted series.
The classification of retail establishments follows the Hong Kong Standard Industrial Classification (HSIC), which is used in various economic surveys for classifying economic units into different industry classes. Upon the implementation of the new HSIC Version 2.0 by the C&SD in October 2008, the Monthly Survey of Retail Sales has been enhanced to adopt the HSIC Version 2.0 in compiling the retail sales statistics. Starting from the reference month of January 2009, all the retail sales statistics, unless otherwise specified, are compiled based on the HSIC Version 2.0.
The series of retail sales statistics under HSIC Version 2.0 has also been backcasted to the base period (i.e. October 2004 to September 2005). Users who are interested in the backcasted series or have enquiries about the survey results may contact the Distribution Services Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel. : 2802 1258 or E-mail : mrs@censtatd.gov.hk).
Users can download the Report on Monthly Survey of Retail Sales free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/index.jsp).
Print version of this publication is available for sale at HK$12.0 per issue. Purchase can be done in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address : 19/F Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel. : 2582 3025) or through mail order by returning a completed order form which can be downloaded from the C&SD¡¦s website (http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat/mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp). Print version of this publication is also available for sale online at the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.bookstore.gov.hk).
Ends/Monday, March 2, 2009
Issued at HKT 16:30
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