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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (February 26) the external merchandise trade statistics for January 2009. In January 2009, the values of Hong Kong”¦s total exports and imports of goods both fell markedly, by 21.8% and 27.1% respectively.
In January 2009, the value of total exports of goods (comprising re-exports and domestic exports) decreased by 21.8% over a year earlier to $187.8 billion, after a year-on-year decrease of 11.4% in December 2008. Within this total, the value of re-exports decreased by 20.7% to $183.6 billion in January 2009, while the value of domestic exports decreased by 50.6% to $4.2 billion. Concurrently, the value of imports of goods decreased by 27.1% over a year earlier to $180.5 billion in January 2009, after a year-on-year decrease of 16.2% in December 2008. A visible trade surplus of $7.2 billion, equivalent to 4.0% of the value of imports of goods, was recorded in January 2009.
Comparing the three-month period ending January 2009 with the preceding three months on a seasonally adjusted basis, the value of total exports of goods decreased by 12.3%. Within this total, the value of re-exports decreased by 12.0%, while the value of domestic exports went down by 20.5%. Meanwhile, the value of imports of goods decreased by 15.8%.
Analysis by country/territory
Comparing January 2009 with January 2008, total exports to Asia as a whole went down by 30.3%. In this region, substantial decreases were registered in the values of total exports to most major destinations, in particular Taiwan (-36.6%), the mainland of China (the Mainland) (-34.5%), Thailand (-31.7%), Korea (-30.9%) and Singapore (-27.5%).
Apart from destinations in Asia, decreases were also registered in the values of total exports to some major destinations in other regions, in particular the Netherlands (-15.0%), the United States of America (-7.0%) and the United Kingdom (-6.1%).
Over the same period of comparison, substantial decreases were registered in the values of imports from most major suppliers, in particular Taiwan (-46.5%), Japan (-46.0%), Singapore (-37.2%), Korea (-35.9%) and India (-30.3%).
Comparing the three months ending January 2009 with the three months ending January 2008, distinct decreases were registered in the values of total exports to most major destinations, in particular Korea (-30.6%), the Mainland (-18.5%), Singapore (-17.0%), the Netherlands (-11.2%) and the United States of America (-9.1%).
Over the same period of comparison, distinct decreases were registered in the values of imports from most major suppliers, in particular Taiwan (-37.3%), Korea (-31.4%), Japan (-25.7%), Singapore (-24.7%) and India (-20.0%).
Analysis by major commodity
Comparing January 2009 with January 2008, decreases were registered in the values of total exports of most principal commodity divisions, in particular "electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, and electrical parts thereof" (by $16.7 billion or -28.8%), "telecommunications and sound recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment" (by $8.8 billion or -21.3%) and "office machines and automatic data processing machines" (by $5.1 billion or -21.0%).
Over the same period of comparison, decreases were registered in the values of imports of all principal commodity divisions, in particular "electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, and electrical parts thereof" (by $20.1 billion or -33.2%), "telecommunications and sound recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment" (by $9.0 billion or -25.3%) and "office machines and automatic data processing machines" (by $5.8 billion or -26.2%).
Comparing the three months ending January 2009 with the three months ending January 2008, year-on-year decreases were registered in the values of total exports of most principal commodity divisions, in particular "telecommunications and sound recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment" (by $24.5 billion or -19.2%), "electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, and electrical parts thereof" (by $24.4 billion or -14.0%) and "textile yarn, fabrics, made-up articles and related products" (by $6.3 billion or -26.0%).
Over the same period of comparison, year-on-year decreases were registered in the values of imports of all principal commodity divisions, in particular "electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, and electrical parts thereof" (by $36.7 billion or -18.8%), "telecommunications and sound recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment" (by $24.6 billion or -21.9%) and "non-metallic mineral manufactures" (by $6.9 billion or -25.7%).
Commentary
A Government spokesman says that merchandise exports contracted markedly in January 2009 over a year earlier. While the decline in January may be exaggerated somewhat by the timing of the Lunar New Year, which fell in January this year but in February last year, it is still clear that external trade performance had been severely affected by the deepening global economic downturn.
The spokesman comments further that the short-term trade outlook is not promising, as many of Hong Kong”¦s major markets are now deep in recession and the global financial crisis is still evolving. The Government will continue to monitor closely the developments on the trade front.
Further information
Starting from this round of press release, the X-12 ARIMA method has replaced the previous X-11 ARIMA method for performing seasonal adjustment of external merchandise trade statistics. The seasonally adjusted series of trade statistics since January 2006 have also been revised using the new method. The X-12 ARIMA method is an update to the X-11 ARIMA method with enhanced modelling and diagnostic capabilities. The X-12 ARIMA method has now been a standard method used by statistical offices in many countries/territories for performing seasonal adjustment of statistical series.
Table 1 at the annex presents the analysis of external merchandise trade statistics for January 2009. Table 2 presents the original monthly trade statistics from January 2006 to January 2009, and Table 3 gives the seasonally adjusted series for the same period.
The values of total exports of goods to ten main destinations for January 2009 are shown in Table 4, whereas the values of imports of goods from ten main suppliers are given in Table 5.
Table 6 and 7 show the values of total exports and imports of ten principal commodity divisions for January 2009.
All the merchandise trade statistics described here are measured at current prices and no account has been taken of changes in prices between the periods of comparison. A separate analysis of the volume and price movements of external merchandise trade for January 2009 will be released in mid-March 2009.
The January 2009 issue of the "Hong Kong External Merchandise Trade" contains detailed analysis on the performance of Hong Kong's external merchandise trade in January 2009. Detailed merchandise trade statistics analysed by commodity and by country/territory are published in the January 2009 issue of the "Hong Kong Merchandise Trade Statistics". The two publications will be available in mid-March and late March 2009 respectively. Users can download them free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/index.jsp). Print versions of the publications are for sale at HK$128 and HK$499 per issue respectively. Purchase can be done in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address: 19/F Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel.: 2582 3025) or through mail order by returning a completed order form which can be downloaded from the C&SD”¦s website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat/mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp). Print versions of the publications are also available for sale online at the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.bookstore.gov.hk).
Enquiries on merchandise trade statistics may be directed to Trade Analysis Section of the C&SD (Tel.: 2582 5042).
Ends/Thursday, February 26, 2009
Issued at HKT 16:30
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