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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released the latest figures on retail sales today (December 1).
The value of total retail sales in October 2008, provisionally estimated at $20.8 billion, increased by 0.3% over a year earlier. After netting out the effect of price changes over the same period, the volume of total retail sales decreased by 4.3% in October 2008 over a year earlier.
The revised estimate of the value of total retail sales in September 2008, at $20.9 billion, increased by 7.0% over September 2007, while the volume of total retail sales increased by 1.9%.
Taking the first ten months of 2008 together, total retail sales increased by 12.7% in value or 6.4% in volume over the same period a year earlier.
Analysed by broad type of retail outlet and comparing October 2008 with October 2007, the volume of sales of electrical goods and photographic equipment increased the most, by 6.0%. This was followed by sales of fuels (+5.5% in volume); furniture and fixtures (+4.0%) and miscellaneous consumer durable goods (+0.9%).
On the other hand, the volume of sales of motor vehicles and parts decreased the most, by 23.9% in October 2008 compared with a year earlier. This was followed by sales of jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts (-10.4% in volume); footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories (-8.7%); commodities in department stores (-5.9%); miscellaneous consumer goods (-4.3%); wearing apparel (-4.2%); commodities in supermarkets (-2.5%); and food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (-2.1%).
Based on the seasonally adjusted series, the volume of total retail sales in the three months ending October 2008 decreased by 1.4% compared with the preceding three-month period.
These retail sales statistics are primarily intended to measure the sales receipts in respect of goods sold by local retail establishments, for gauging the short-term business performance of the local retail sector. They cover consumer spending on goods but not on services. Moreover, they include spending on goods by visitors in Hong Kong but not by Hong Kong residents outside Hong Kong. Hence they should not be regarded as a comprehensive indicator of overall consumer spending. In this context, it may be noted that the share of consumer spending on services in overall consumer spending has been increasing over time.
Users interested in the trend of overall consumer spending should refer to the quarterly series of private consumption expenditure (PCE), which is a major component of the Gross Domestic Product. Compiled from a wide range of data sources, PCE covers consumer spending on both goods (including goods purchased from all channels) and services by Hong Kong residents whether domestically or abroad.
Commentary
A Government spokesman said that retail sales weakened considerably further in October, as the adverse impacts of the global financial tsunami on consumer spending had increasingly set in. The sluggish performance of inbound tourism in that month also posed a drag.
Looking ahead, the negative wealth effect arising from the asset market corrections, as well as the worsening income and job prospects, will continue to weigh heavily on consumer spending. The business conditions for the retail trade are likely to remain difficult in the coming months.
Further information
The volume of retail sales is derived from the value of retail sales after adjusting for price changes. The relevant components of the Consumer Price Index are used as deflators.
Table 1 presents the revised figures on value index and value of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for September 2008 and the provisional figures for October 2008. The value index is compiled with the average monthly value index of retail sales from October 2004 to September 2005 taken as 100.
Table 2 presents the revised figures on volume index of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for September 2008 and the provisional figures for October 2008. The volume index is compiled with the average monthly volume index of retail sales from October 2004 to September 2005 taken as 100.
Table 3 shows the movement of the volume of total retail sales in terms of the year-on-year rate of change for a month compared with the same month in the preceding year based on the original series, and in terms of the rate of change for a three-month period compared with the preceding three-month period based on the seasonally adjusted series.
Users can download the Report on Monthly Survey of Retail Sales free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/index.jsp).
Print version of this publication is available for sale at HK$10.0 per issue. Purchase can be done in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address: 19/F Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel.: 2582 3025) or through mail order by returning a completed order form which can be downloaded from the C&SD¡¦s website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat/mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp). Print version of this publication is also available for sale online at the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.bookstore.gov.hk).
Enquiries about the survey results may be directed to the Distribution Services Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel.: 2802 1258).
Ends/Monday, December 1, 2008
Issued at HKT 16:30
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