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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (October 24) the results of the Quarterly Business Tendency Survey for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2008.
Business Situation
For all surveyed sectors taken together, more respondents expect their business situation to be worse, as compared to those expecting it to be better, in Q4 2008 over Q3 2008.
Analysed by sector, significantly more respondents in the restaurants and hotels; and banks, financing and insurance sectors expect their business situation to be worse, as compared to those expecting it to be better, in Q4 2008 over Q3 2008.
A spokesman of the C&SD cautioned that the results of the survey should be interpreted with care. "In this type of survey on expectations, the views collected in the survey are affected by the events in the community occurring around the time of enumeration, and it is difficult to establish precisely the extent to which respondents' perception of the future accords with the underlying trends."
"Originally the enumeration period of this survey round was from 9 September 2008 to 13 October 2008. In the light of the onset of the global financial tsunami in late September, a special analysis had been conducted to see if respondents' views would vary with their reporting period. It was found that for some sectors, views collected from respondents before late September tended to be more optimistic than those collected in the latter part of the enumeration period. Taking account of this response pattern and also the changing market sentiments towards a gloomy economic outlook most recently, we had extended the enumeration period to 22 October 2008 so as to collect as far as possible the latest views of respondents in certain sectors that are relatively more sensitive to changes in economic climate. This special arrangement ensures that the survey results can broadly reflect the perceived current impact on the business outlook of Q4 2008 in various sectors arising from the financial tsunami."
Volume of Business/Output
More respondents in the restaurants and hotels; import and export trade; and banks, financing and insurance sectors expect their volume of business/output to decrease, as against those expecting it to increase, in Q4 2008 over Q3 2008.
Employment
The majority of respondents in most sectors expect their number of persons engaged to remain broadly stable. On the other hand, more respondents engaged in real estate development, leasing and maintenance management services in the real estate sector expect their number of persons engaged to increase, as compared to those expecting it to decrease, in Q4 2008 over Q3 2008 (while more respondents engaged in real estate brokerage and agency and other services in the real estate sector have less optimistic outlook on their number of persons engaged).
Selling Price/Service Charge
More respondents in the restaurants and hotels sector expect their price of food provided/charge for services rendered to increase, as against those expecting it to decline, in Q4 2008 over Q3 2008.
Further Information
The survey covers ten major sectors in Hong Kong, including the manufacturing; construction; wholesale and retail; import and export trade; restaurants and hotels; transport and related services; communications; real estate; business services; and banks, financing and insurance sectors.
The survey gathers views on short-term business performance from the senior management of about 550 prominent establishments in various sectors in Hong Kong with a view to providing a quick reference, with minimum time lag, for predicting the short-term future economic performance of the local economy. Views collected refer only to those of respondents on their own establishments rather than those on the respective sectors they are engaged in; and are limited to the expected direction of quarter-to-quarter change (e.g. "up", "same" or "down") but not the magnitude of change. In collecting views on the quarter-to-quarter changes, if the variable in question may be subject to seasonal variations, respondents are asked to provide the expected changes after excluding the normal seasonal variations.
Survey results are generally presented as "net balance", i.e. the difference between the percentages of respondents choosing "up" over that choosing "down". The percentage distribution of respondents among various response categories (e.g. "up", "same" and "down") reflects how varied their business expectations are. The "net balance", with its appropriate sign, indicates the direction of expected change in the variable concerned. A positive sign indicates a likely upward trend while a negative sign, a likely downward trend. However, the magnitude of the "net balance" reflects only the prevalence of optimism or pessimism, but not the magnitude of expected change, since information relating to such magnitude is not collected in the survey.
Table 1 shows the net balances on views on expectations in respect of different variables.
The survey results are published in greater detail in the "Report on Quarterly Business Tendency Survey, Q4 2008". Users can obtain the publication early next week through the following ways:
(i) Obtain download version
* Download (in PDF format) free of charge at the website of the Census and Statistics Department (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/index.jsp).
(ii) Purchase print version
* Purchase in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address: 19/F, Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel: 2582 3025). The publication is for sale at HK$26 per copy.
* Complete a mail order form which is available for downloading from the website of C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat/mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp) and return it to C&SD. The price (excluding postage) is the same as above.
* Purchase online at the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.bookstore.gov.hk).
Enquiries about the survey results may be directed to the Business Expectation Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel: 2805 6112).
Ends/Friday, October 24, 2008
Issued at HKT 16:31
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