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Following is a question by the Hon Yeung Sum and a written reply by the Secretary for Education, Mr Michael Suen, in the Legislative Council today (April 9):
Question:
In making population projections for the period between 2007 and 2036, the Census and Statistics Department assumes that during that period, there will be 30 000 mainland women giving birth in Hong Kong per annum, and among them, 10 000 women are the spouses of permanent residents of Hong Kong, while the rest are not. In this connection, will the Government inform this Council:
(a) among the babies born in each of the past five years in Hong Kong to the aforesaid two categories of women, of the respective numbers and percentages of them who left Hong Kong within the first year of their birth;
(b) among the children born in Hong Kong to the aforesaid two categories of women and who subsequently left Hong Kong, of the respective numbers of those who are expected to return to Hong Kong to attend kindergarten or primary school in each of the coming five years; and
(c) how the authorities, in planning for the provision of kindergarten and primary school places, consider the factor that most of these new-born babies will return to Hong Kong before they become adults?
Reply:
Madam President,
(a) & (b) Currently the Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) does not have the information to directly distinguish whether and when babies born in Hong Kong to Mainland women have left Hong Kong. Nor does the department have the information to directly distinguish who amongst the returnees were born in Hong Kong to Mainland women in earlier years. In view of this, a survey entitled "Survey on babies born in Hong Kong to Mainland women" was conducted by the C&SD from late January 2007 to March 2007 to collect data on several selected key items for the purpose of population projections.
According to the survey results, for babies born in Hong Kong to Mainland women whose spouses are Hong Kong Permanent Residents (referred to as Type I babies hereafter), about 65% of the parents indicated that their children would stay in Hong Kong. The remaining 35% of parents said that they intended to bring their babies back to the Mainland, and nearly all planned to do so before their babies reached age 1. According to the survey results, amongst such babies who would return to the Mainland, about 72% were expected to return to Hong Kong at or before age 3 and about 84% at or before age 6.
Regarding babies born in Hong Kong to Mainland women whose spouses are not Hong Kong Permanent Residents (referred to as Type II babies hereafter), only about 9% of the parents indicated that their children would stay in Hong Kong. For the other 91%, the parents indicated that they intended to bring their babies back to the Mainland, and nearly all planned to do so before their babies reached age 1. According to the survey results, amongst such babies who would return to the Mainland, about 29% were expected to return to Hong Kong at or before age 3 and about 49% at or before age 6.
The updated population projections released by the C&SD in July 2007 have made reference to the preliminary views of the parents as obtained in the aforementioned survey and have incorporated in broad terms the possible return of these babies to Hong Kong. That said, the information currently available is not sufficient for the C&SD to provide precise breakdowns for projections on these babies. With a view to reviewing the projections on such babies, the C&SD is attempting a study into the immigration records and related information to find out the actual cross-boundary movements of these babies and changes in their rate of return.
(c) The population projections compiled by the C&SD form a common basis for government planning in various programme areas, such as housing, education and social services.
In planning education (including kindergarten and primary education) services, the Education Bureau makes reference to the population projections for school-age children compiled by the C&SD (including projections on Type I and Type II babies as set out above). This apart, we take into account the actual numbers of students studying at various grades as well as the latest demographic changes (such as fluctuations in newly-arrived children from the Mainland) in estimating the demand for school places and relevant resources in future years. Nevertheless, there exist considerable variable factors affecting current assumptions in the population projections regarding the number of newly-arrived children from the Mainland and whether Type I and Type II babies will settle in Hong Kong and receive education. We will, in the planning process, pay close attention to the updated projections on whether such babies would return to Hong Kong as compiled by the C&SD.
Ends/Wednesday, April 9, 2008
Issued at HKT 18:26
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