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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released the latest figures on retail sales today (April 2).
The value of total retail sales in February 2007, provisionally estimated at $20.8 billion, increased by 28.4% compared with a year earlier. After netting out the effect of price changes over the same period, the volume of total retail sales increased by 25.0% in February 2007 compared with a year earlier.
The revised estimate of the value of total retail sales in January 2007, at $20.8 billion, decreased by 1.5% over January 2006, while the volume of total retail sales decreased by 4.9%.
In interpreting these figures, it should be noted that, affected by the difference in timing of the Lunar New Year, retail sales tend to show greater volatility in the first two months of a year. The Lunar New Year fell on February 18 this year but on Januaryˇ@29 last year. It is therefore more appropriate to compare the retail sales figures for January and February taken together.
Taking the first two months of 2007 together, total retail sales increased by 11.4% in value or 8.0% in volume over the same period a year earlier.
Analysed by type of retail outlet and comparing January and February 2007 combined with a year earlier, the volume of sales of jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts increased the most, by 14.5%. This was followed by sales of motor vehicles and parts (+14.1% in volume); electrical goods and photographic equipment (+12.1%); footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories (+11.2%); furniture and fixtures (+9.0%); miscellaneous consumer goods (+8.8%); commodities in department stores (+6.8%); food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (+6.7%); commodities in supermarkets (+3.8%); wearing apparel (+3.8%); and fuels (+2.6%).
On the other hand, the volume of sales of miscellaneous consumer durable goods decreased by 2.2% in January and February 2007 combined compared with a year earlier.
Based on the seasonally adjusted series, the volume of total retail sales increased by 5.1% in the three months ending February 2007 compared with the preceding three-month period.
These retail sales statistics are primarily intended to measure the sales receipts of goods sold by local retail establishments, for gauging the short-term business performance of the local retail sector. They cover consumer spending on goods but not on services. Moreover, they include spending on goods by visitors in Hong Kong but not by Hong Kong residents outside Hong Kong. Hence they should not be regarded as a comprehensive indicator of overall consumer spending. In this context, it may be noted that the share of consumer spending on services in overall consumer spending has been increasing over time.
Users interested in the trend of overall consumer spending should refer to the quarterly series of private consumption expenditure (PCE), which is a major component of the Gross Domestic Product. Compiled from a wide range of data sources, PCE covers consumer spending on both goods (purchased from all channels) and services by Hong Kong residents whether domestically or abroad.
Commentary
A Government spokesman pointed out that the performance of retail sales was strong on entering 2007. The volume of total retail sales in January and February 2007 combined, neutralising the distortion introduced by the difference in the timing of the Lunar New Year between 2006 and 2007, grew distinctly across-the-board over a year earlier. The latest figures signify continued strength in local consumer spending, which was underpinned by the improving economic fundamentals and the wealth effect stemming from the buoyant stock market performance during most of February.
The spokesman foresaw that rising labour income and upbeat consumer sentiments should continue to provide firm support to retail business. Yet the latest volatility in the financial markets may be an area to watch out.
Further information
The volume of retail sales is derived from the value of retail sales after adjusting for price changes. The relevant components of the Consumer Price Index are used as price deflators.
Table 1 presents the revised figures on value index and value of retail sales for all retail outlets and by type of retail outlet for January 2007 and the provisional figures for February 2007, with average retail sales from October 2004 to September 2005 taken as 100.
Table 2 presents the revised figures on volume index of retail sales for all retail outlets and by type of retail outlet for January 2007 and the provisional figures for February 2007, with average retail sales from October 2004 to September 2005 taken as 100.
Table 3 shows the movement of the volume of total retail sales in terms of the year-on-year rate of change for a month compared with the same month in the preceding year based on the original series, and in terms of the rate of change for a three-month period compared with the preceding three-month period based on the seasonally adjusted series.
The Report on Monthly Survey of Retail Sales containing the analysis of the February 2007 results is now available for download (in PDF format) free of charge at the "Statistical Bookstore, Hong Kong" (www.statisticalbookstore.gov.hk). The print version of the publication can be purchased in the following ways:
* Purchase in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address: 19/F, Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel: 2582 3025) at HK$9.0 per copy.
* Complete a mail order form which is available for downloading from the website of C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat/mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp) and return it to C&SD. Price (excluding postage) is the same as above.
* Purchase online at the Statistical Bookstore or the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.isd.gov.hk/eng/bookorder.htm). Print versions if purchased online are offered a discount and are sold at 85% of their original prices. After discount, the price (excluding postage) of the publication is HK$7.7 per copy.
Enquiries about the survey results may be directed to the Distribution Services Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel: 2802 1258).
Ends/Monday, April 2, 2007
Issued at HKT 16:15
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