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Since the issue of this press release (for Business expectations for the fourth quarter of 2005) on 31 October 2005, some figures about the views on expected changes in number of persons engaged have been revised. Details are given in Table 1(R) (Text version of Table 1(R)).
Last updated on 26 January 2006
The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (October 31) results of the Quarterly Business Tendency Survey (QBTS) for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2005.
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2. According to the QBTS conducted by C&SD for Q4 2005, all sectors covered expect an increase in volume of business/output in Q4 2005 over the third quarter (Q3) of 2005. These include the manufacturing; construction; wholesale and retail; import and export trade; restaurants and hotels; transport and related services; banks, financing and insurance; and real estate, business services and telecommunications sectors.
3. In the manufacturing sector, more respondents expect an increase in their volume of production, as compared to those expecting a decrease, in Q4 2005 over Q3 2005. On the other hand, respondents generally expect their employment and selling price to remain broadly unchanged.
4. In the construction sector, slightly more respondents expect an increase in their volume of construction output, as compared to those expecting a decrease, in Q4 2005 over Q3 2005; while significantly more respondents expect an increase in their employment, as compared to those expecting a decrease. On the other hand, respondents generally expect their tender price to remain broadly unchanged.
5. In the wholesale and retail sector, a significant proportion of respondents expect their volume of sales to increase, in Q4 2005 over Q3 2005. Also, significantly more respondents expect an increase in their employment, as compared to those expecting a decrease. As to selling price, more respondents expect it to increase, as compared to those expecting a decrease.
6. In the import and export trade sector, more respondents expect an increase in their volume of sales, as compared to those expecting a decrease, in Q4 2005 over Q3 2005. On the other hand, respondents generally expect their employment to remain broadly unchanged. As to selling price, respondents generally expect it to remain broadly unchanged or to decline.
7. In the restaurants and hotels sector, significantly more respondents expect an increase in their volume of business and selling price of food and services provided, as compared to those expecting a decrease, in Q4 2005 over Q3 2005; while more respondents expect an increase in their employment, as compared to those expecting a decrease.
8. In the transport and related services sector, more respondents expect an increase in their volume of business, as compared to those expecting a decrease, in Q4 2005 over Q3 2005. Also, significantly more respondents expect an increase in their employment, as compared to those expecting a decrease. As to price of services rendered, respondents generally expect it to remain broadly unchanged or to decline.
9. In the banks, financing and insurance sector, significantly more respondents expect an increase in their volume of business and employment, as compared to those expecting a decrease, in Q4 2005 over Q3 2005. Also, more respondents expect an increase in their price of services rendered, as compared to those expecting a decrease.
10. In the real estate, business services and telecommunications sector, significantly more respondents expect an increase in their volume of business, as compared to those expecting a decrease, in Q4 2005 over Q3 2005; while more respondents expect an increase in their employment, as compared to those expecting a decrease. On the other hand, respondents generally expect their price of services rendered to remain broadly unchanged.
11. It has to be noted that in this type of survey on expectations, the views are affected by the events in the community occurring around the time of enumeration. The enumeration period for this round of the survey was from 12 September 2005 to 5 October 2005.
12. This survey gathers views on the short-term business outlook from the senior management of about 500 prominent establishments in various sectors in Hong Kong. Views collected refer only to those of the respondents on their own establishments rather than those on the respective sectors they are engaged in; and are limited to the expected direction of quarter-to-quarter change (i.e. "up", "same" or "down") but not magnitude of change. In collecting views on the quarter-to-quarter comparison, if the variable in question may be subject to seasonal variations, respondents are asked to provide the expected changes after excluding the normal seasonal variations.
13. Results of this survey are generally presented in the form of "net balance", which is the difference between the percentage of respondents choosing "up" over that choosing "down". The "net balance", with its appropriate sign, indicates the direction of expected change in the variable concerned. A positive sign indicates a likely upward trend, while a negative sign, a likely downward trend. However, the magnitude of the "net balance" reflects only the prevalence of optimism or pessimism about the near future, but not that the variable would go up or down in magnitude to that extent, as the magnitudes of expected changes are not collected in the survey.
14. Table 1 shows the net balances on views on expectations in respect of different variables.
15. A spokesman of the Department cautioned that, in a survey of this nature, the results should be interpreted with care, as it is difficult to establish precisely the extent to which respondents' perception of the future accords with the underlying trends.
16. The survey results are published in greater detail in the "Report on Quarterly Business Tendency Survey, Q4 2005". This publication is now on sale at HK$20 per issue. Both print version and download version of the publication can be purchased online at the "Statistical Bookstore, Hong Kong" (http://www.statisticalbookstore.gov.hk). Download version of the statistical publication can be purchased at 75% of its original price exclusively at the online Statistical Bookstore (http://www.statisticalbookstore.gov.hk). Print version if purchased online is also offered a discount, at 85% of its original price also at the Statistical Bookstore as well as the Government Bookstore (http://www.isd.gov.hk/eng/bookorder.htm).
17. For purchase of print version, this can be done through mail order by returning a completed order form which can be downloaded from the C&SD's website (http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/eng/prod_serv/forms_index.html). Purchase can also be made in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address: 19/F, Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel.: 2582 3025).
18. Enquiries about the survey results may be directed to the Business Expectation Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel.: 2805 6112).
Ends/Monday, October 31, 2005
Issued at HKT 16:15
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