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Content of the press release
The Census and Statistics Department released the latest figures on retail sales today (September 8).
2. The value of total retail sales in July 2003, provisionally estimated at $14.6 billion, decreased by 2.7% compared with July 2002. After netting out the effect of price changes over the same period, the overall volume of retail sales decreased by 0.5% in July 2003 from a year earlier.
3. The revised estimate on the value of total retail sales in June 2003 was $13.6 billion, down by 6.5% in value or 3.3% in volume from a year earlier.
4. Taking the first seven months of 2003 together, retail sales declined by 6.2% in value or 3.7% in volume as compared to a year earlier.
5. These retail sales statistics are primarily intended to measure the sales receipts of goods sold by local retail establishments, for gauging the short-term business performance of the local retail sector. They cover consumer spending on goods but not on services. Moreover, they include spending on goods by visitors in Hong Kong but not by Hong Kong residents outside Hong Kong. Hence they should not be regarded as a comprehensive indicator of overall consumer spending. In this context, it may be noted that the share of consumer spending on services in overall consumer spending has been increasing over time.
6. Users interested in the trend of overall consumer spending should refer to the quarterly series of private consumption expenditure (PCE), which is a major component of the Gross Domestic Product. Compiled from a wide range of data sources, PCE covers consumer spending on both goods (purchased from all channels) and services by Hong Kong residents whether domestically or abroad.
7. Analysed by type of retail outlet and comparing July 2003 with a year earlier, sales of motor vehicles and parts declined the most, by 16.4% in volume. This was followed by sales of fuels (by 8.2% in volume); wearing apparel (5.6%); commodities in department stores (4.7%); furniture and fixtures (2.9%); commodities in supermarkets (1.7%); jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts (1.0%); and footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories (0.5%).
8. On the other hand, sales of electrical goods and photographic equipment and of miscellaneous consumer durable goods increased by 17.4% and 9.9% respectively in volume in July 2003 over a year earlier, while sales of miscellaneous consumer goods and of food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco also increased, by 2.8% and 0.8% respectively in volume.
9. Based on the seasonally adjusted series, the overall volume of retail sales increased by 1.7% in the three months ending July 2003 as compared to the preceding three-month period.
Commentary
10. A Government Secretariat spokesman noted that retail business improved further. On a year-on-year comparison, retail sales volume had only a marginal decline in July. On a seasonally adjusted basis, retail sales volume rose in the three months ending July as compared to the preceding three-month period. While local consumer spending continued to recover from the earlier setback caused by SARS, inbound tourism also picked up upon the swift return of Mainland visitors.
11. The spokesman observed that the further improvement in retail business in July spanned quite a number of categories. Sales of electrical goods and photographic equipment, having already risen to double-digit growth in June, picked up even more in July. Sales of jewellery and watches, after plunging for five months in a row, also improved relatively to only a slight decline in July. Sales of miscellaneous consumer durable goods maintained robust growth in July. Sales of foodstuffs bottomed out to a small increase in July. Sales of clothing and sales in supermarkets both recorded smaller declines in July.
Further information
12. The volume of retail sales is derived from the value of retail sales after adjusting for price changes. The relevant components of the Consumer Price Index are used as deflators.
13. Table 1 (text version of table 1) presents the revised value index of retail sales for all retail outlets and by type of retail outlet for June 2003 and the provisional figures for July 2003, with average retail sales from October 1999 to September 2000 taken as 100. The retail sales figures for all retail outlets and by type of retail outlet for June and July 2003 are also shown.
14. Table 2 (text version of table 2) presents the volume index of retail sales for all retail outlets and by type of retail outlet for June and July 2003, with average retail sales from October 1999 to September 2000 taken as 100.
15. Table 3 (text version of table 3) shows the movement of total retail sales volume in terms of the year-on-year rate of change for a month compared with the same month in the preceding year based on the original series, and in terms of the rate of change for a three-month period compared with the preceding three-month period based on the seasonally adjusted series.
16. The report containing the analysis of the July 2003 results is now available, in both hardcopy and softcopy (in PDF format), for sale at HK$8. It can be purchased online at the "Statistical Bookstore, Hong Kong" (http://www.statisticalbookstore.gov.hk) or by returning a completed order form which can be downloaded from the C&SD's website (http://www.info.gov.hk/censtatd/eng/prod_serv/forms_index.html). Purchase in person can be made at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address: 19/F, Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel.: 2582 3025).
17. Enquiries about the survey results may be directed to the Distribution and Services Statistics Section (1)A of the Census and Statistics Department (Tel. No. : 2802 1258).
End/Monday, September 8, 2003
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