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Content of the press release
The Census and Statistics Department released the latest figures on retail sales today (June 6).
2. The value of total retail sales in April 2003, provisionally estimated at $12.7 billion, decreased by 15.2% compared with April 2002. After netting out the effect of price changes over the same period, the overall volume of retail sales decreased by 12.2% in April 2003 from a year earlier.
3. The revised estimate on the value of total retail sales in March 2003 was $14.2 billion, down by 6.1% in value or 3.8% in volume from a year earlier.
4. Taking the first four months of 2003 together, retail sales declined by 5.7% in value or 3.6% in volume as compared to a year earlier.
5. These retail sales statistics are primarily intended to measure the sales receipts of goods sold by local retail establishments, for gauging the short-term business performance of the local retail sector. While they cover consumer spending on goods, they do not encompass consumer spending on services. Moreover, they include spending on goods by visitors in Hong Kong, but do not include spending on goods by Hong Kong residents outside Hong Kong. Hence they should not be regarded as a comprehensive indicator of overall consumer spending. In this context, it may be noted that the share of consumer spending on services in overall consumer spending has been increasing over time.
6. Users interested in the trend of overall consumer spending should refer to the quarterly series of private consumption expenditure (PCE), which is a major component of the Gross Domestic Product. Compiled from a wide range of data sources, PCE covers consumer spending on both goods (purchased from all channels) and services by Hong Kong residents whether domestically or abroad.
7. Analysed by type of retail outlet and comparing April 2003 with a year earlier, sales of jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts declined the most, by 44.3% in volume. This was followed by sales of wearing apparel (by 29.6% in volume); footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories (27.1%); motor vehicles and parts (23.8%); commodities in department stores (19.7%); fuels (15.9%); miscellaneous consumer goods (6.8%); food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (4.8%); furniture and fixtures (3.4%); and electrical goods and photographic equipment (1.6%).
8. On the other hand, sales of commodities in supermarkets and of miscellaneous consumer durable goods increased by 8.6% and 2.8% respectively in volume in April 2003 when compared with a year earlier.
9. Based on the seasonally adjusted series, the overall volume of retail sales decreased by 7.4% in the three months ending April 2003 as compared to the preceding three-month period.
Commentary
10. A Government Secretariat spokesman noted that the volume of retail sales, having already fallen back modestly in March, slackened distinctly more in April 2003, as concern about the SARS situation locally escalated in the month, thereby severely hitting local consumer spending and inbound tourism. The setback was widespread. Amongst the various types of retail outlets, sales of jewellery and watches, motor vehicles, and wearing apparel were particularly hard hit. Sales of electrical goods and sales of commodities in department stores also slackened markedly. On the other hand, sales of commodities in supermarkets, and sales of Chinese drugs and herbs and of health and sanitary products rose further.
11. With the SARS situation locally improving over the past few weeks and with WHO's travel advisory against Hong Kong lifted on 23 May, local consumer sentiment is seen to be turning better lately. Moreover, visitors from Guangdong are returning. These can be expected to aid local retail business. Strong promotion by the affected trades complemented with relaunch by the Government should also render a useful boost in the period ahead.
Further information
12. The volume of retail sales is derived from the value of retail sales after adjusting for price changes. The relevant components of the Consumer Price Index are used as deflators.
13. Table 1 (text version) presents the revised value index of retail sales for all retail outlets and by type of retail outlet for March 2003 and the provisional figures for April 2003, with average retail sales from October 1999 to September 2000 taken as 100. The retail sales figures for all retail outlets and by type of retail outlet for March and April 2003 are also shown.
14. Table 2 (text version) presents the volume index of retail sales for all retail outlets and by type of retail outlet for March and April 2003, with average retail sales from October 1999 to September 2000 taken as 100.
15. Table 3 (text version) shows the movement of total retail sales volume in terms of the year-on-year rate of change for a month compared with the same month in the preceding year based on the original series, and in terms of the rate of change for a three-month period compared with the preceding three-month period based on the seasonally adjusted series.
16. The report containing the analysis of the April 2003 results is now on sale at $8 per copy. The above publication and other publications of the Census and Statistics Department can be purchased in person from :
(i) Government Publications Centre, Ground Floor, Low Block, Queensway Government Offices, 66 Queensway, Hong Kong (Tel.: 2537 1910); or
(ii) Publications Unit of the Census and Statistics Department, 19th Floor, Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai, Hong Kong (Tel.: 2582 3025).
17. Internet users may purchase the publications online at the "Statistical Bookstore, Hong Kong" (Address: http://www.statisticalbookstore.gov.hk) with payment made instantly. Softcopies of the publications purchased are available for immediate downloading while hardcopies purchased will be delivered by mail. Subscription to regular publications and advance ordering of upcoming releases are also available. The Statistical Bookstore is hosted on the ESD portal (Address: http://www.esd.gov.hk) together with other public services.
18. A mail order form for ordering or arranging subscription to hardcopies of publications is available in most publications of the Census and Statistics Department. It may be completed and sent back together with a cheque or bank draft covering all necessary cost and postage. The order form is also available for downloading from the website of the Department (Address: http://www.info.gov.hk/censtatd/eng/service_desk/forms_index.html).
19. Enquiries about the survey results may be directed to the Distribution and Services Statistics Section (1)A of the Census and Statistics Department (Tel. No. : 2802 1258).
End/Friday, June 6, 2003
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