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Content of the press release
The Census and Statistics Department released the latest figures on retail sales today (May 6).
2. The value of total retail sales in March 2003, provisionally estimated at $14.2 billion, decreased by 6.0% compared with March 2002. After netting out the effect of price changes over the same period, the overall volume of retail sales decreased by 3.7% in March 2003 from a year earlier.
3. The revised estimate on the value of total retail sales in February 2003 was $12.7 billion, down by 12.6% in value or 11.3% in volume from a year earlier. This came after an increase of 9.9% in value or 11.7% in volume in January. It should be noted, however, that retail sales tend to show greater volatility in the first two months of a year because of the effect of the timing of the Lunar New Year. For the first two months of 2003 combined, retail sales fell by 0.8% in value yet rose by 0.7% in volume from a year earlier.
4. Taking the first quarter of 2003 together, retail sales declined by 2.5% in value or 0.8% in volume as compared to a year earlier.
5. These retail sales statistics are primarily intended to measure the sales receipts of goods sold by local retail establishments, for gauging the short-term business performance of the local retail sector. While they cover consumer spending on goods, they do not encompass consumer spending on services. Moreover, they include spending on goods by visitors in Hong Kong, but do not include spending on goods by Hong Kong residents outside Hong Kong. Hence they should not be regarded as a comprehensive indicator of overall consumer spending. In this context, it may be noted that the share of consumer spending on services in overall consumer spending has been increasing over time.
6. Users interested in the trend of overall consumer spending should refer to the quarterly series of private consumption expenditure (PCE), which is a major component of the Gross Domestic Product. Compiled from a wide range of data sources, PCE covers consumer spending on both goods (purchased from all channels) and services by Hong Kong residents whether domestically or abroad.
7. Analysed by type of retail outlet and comparing March 2003 with a year earlier, sales of footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories declined the most, by 21.1% in volume. This was followed by sales of fuels (by 16.8% in volume); jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts (16.1%); wearing apparel (13.5%); commodities in department stores (12.7%); furniture and fixtures (9.2%); motor vehicles and parts (0.9%); and food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (0.7%).
8. On the other hand, sales of electrical goods and photographic equipment and of miscellaneous consumer durable goods increased by 14.6% and 7.3% respectively in volume in March 2003 when compared with a year earlier, while sales of commodities in supermarkets and of miscellaneous consumer goods also increased, by 2.7% and 0.8% respectively in volume.
9. Based on the seasonally adjusted series, the overall volume of retail sales increased by 1.0% in the first quarter of 2003 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2002.
Commentary
10. A Government Secretariat spokesman noted that the volume of retail sales fell off again in March 2003, after a brief pick-up in the first two months of the year. Conceivably, the setback was mainly due to the spread of atypical pneumonia in Hong Kong after mid-March, which hit local consumer sentiment on the one hand and curbed visitor arrivals and hence visitor spending on the other. The downturn was quite widespread, being particularly marked for sales of clothing and footwear, department store sales, and sales of jewellery and watches. Nevertheless, sales of electrical appliances and photographic equipment continued to record distinct growth. Sales of Chinese drugs and herbs and of health and sanitary products picked up. Sales of commodities in supermarkets also had some modest growth.
Further information
11. The volume of retail sales is derived from the value of retail sales after adjusting for price changes. The relevant components of the Consumer Price Index are used as deflators.
12. Table 1 (text version) presents the revised value index of retail sales for all retail outlets and by type of retail outlet for February 2003 and the provisional figures for March 2003, with average retail sales from October 1999 to September 2000 taken as 100. The retail sales figures for all retail outlets and by type of retail outlet for February and March 2003 are also shown.
13. Table 2 (text version) presents the volume index of retail sales for all retail outlets and by type of retail outlet for February and March 2003, with average retail sales from October 1999 to September 2000 taken as 100.
14. Table 3 (text version) shows the movement of total retail sales volume in terms of the year-on-year rate of change for a month compared with the same month in the preceding year based on the original series, and in terms of the rate of change for a three-month period compared with the preceding three-month period based on the seasonally adjusted series.
15. The report containing the analysis of the March 2003 results is now on sale at $8 per copy. The above publication and other publications of the Census and Statistics Department can be purchased in person from :
(i) Government Publications Centre, Ground Floor, Low Block, Queensway Government Offices, 66 Queensway, Hong Kong (Tel.: 2537 1910); or
(ii) Publications Unit of the Census and Statistics Department, 19th Floor, Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai, Hong Kong (Tel.: 2582 3025).
16. Internet users may purchase the publications online at the "Statistical Bookstore, Hong Kong" (Address: http://www.statisticalbookstore.gov.hk) with payment made instantly. Softcopies of the publications purchased are available for immediate downloading while hardcopies purchased will be delivered by mail. Subscription to regular publications and advance ordering of upcoming releases are also available. The Statistical Bookstore is hosted on the ESD portal (Address: http://www.esd.gov.hk) together with other public services.
17. A mail order form for ordering or arranging subscription to hardcopies of publications is available in most publications of the Census and Statistics Department. It may be completed and sent back together with a cheque or bank draft covering all necessary cost and postage. The order form is also available for downloading from the website of the Department (Address: http://www.info.gov.hk/censtatd/eng/service_desk/forms_index.html).
18. Enquiries about the survey results may be directed to the Distribution and Services Statistics Section (1)A of the Census and Statistics Department (Tel. No. : 2802 1258).
End/Tuesday, May 6, 2003
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