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The Government released today (November 14) the key findings of two manpower studies, namely the Manpower Projection to 2005 and the Employment Prospects of People Aged 40-49.

The Manpower Projection to 2005, which assesses the impact on employment arising from Hong Kong's economic restructuring and China's accession to the World Trade Organisation, indicates that the total manpower requirement, unconstrained by overall labour supply, will grow from 2.9 million in 1999 to 3.33 million in 2005. This represents an annual growth rate of 2.4 per cent or an increase of some 433,000 jobs in absolute terms.

During the same period, manpower supply is projected to grow from 3.11 million in 1999 to 3.38 million in 2005.

Matching the projection of manpower requirement and manpower supply by educational attainment, there will be a surplus of manpower supply at the lower secondary and below level by some 136,000 and shortages in manpower supply at the post secondary and first degree and above levels by about 85,000 and 31,000 respectively.

Analysed by economic sector, the manpower requirement of the financing, insurance, real estate and business services sector is projected to grow at an annual average of 5.6 per cent between 1999 and 2005, followed by transport, storage and communications at 3.8 per cent construction at 2.6 per cent, community, social and personal services at 2 per cent, and the wholesale, retail and import/export trades, restaurants and hotels at 1.7 per cent.

On the other hand, the manpower requirement of the local manufacturing sector is projected to shrink by an average annual rate of 3.8 per cent over the same period.

The Study on Employment Prospects of People Aged 40-49, which assesses the employment problems faced by middle-aged workers, shows that middle-aged people generally fare no worse than people in other age groups in terms of employment indicators.

There are however increasing indications that middle-aged workers with low skill and low educational attainment will face difficulties in finding new jobs, once unemployed. This is due to their low education level rather than their age and is a generic problem faced by all people with low educational attainment.

"The findings of the two studies indicate that despite the challenges ahead, there will be additional employment opportunities for the labour force in Hong Kong, "the Secretary for Education and Manpower, Mrs Fanny Law said.

"However there will be a mismatch between job requirement and the qualification of workers," she noted.

"Unless we are able to address this mismatch, we may not be able to take full advantage or the new job opportunities that may arise and this may affect Hong Kong's progressive transformation into a knowledge based economy.

"It is important that workers with low skill and educational attainment recognise that there is a need to upgrade themselves and to actively seek to do so. We also look to employers for assistance and support in upgrading the education and skills of our workforce.

"The Government will provide increasing training and self improvement opportunities for those workers who wish to better equip themselves," she said.

Mrs Law pointed out that the Chief Executive had initiated measures, in his policy address, to provide more subsidised upper secondary and tertiary places in the next few years.

"He has also designated $400 million to help some 50,000 unemployed and employed workers with low educational attainment to improve their job skills over the next two years," she added.

"We will consult widely the outcome of the two studies, and will carefully consider appropriate measures to address the manpower resource imbalance and the employment problems of the middle-aged workers under the Steering Committee set up to administer the Skills Upgrading Scheme," she said.

The Steering Committee, chaired by the Secretary for Education and Manpower, will hold its first meeting on November 20 and will discuss the findings of these reports. The Committee comprises employer and employee representatives, academics and social workers.

End/Tuesday, November 14, 2000

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