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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (March 29) the external merchandise trade statistics for February 2016. In February 2016, the values of Hong Kong's total exports and imports of goods both recorded year-on-year decreases, at 10.4% and 10.1% respectively.
As the trade flows in January and February of each year tend to show considerable volatilities due to difference in timing of the Lunar New Year holidays, it is useful to analyse the trade figures for these two months taken together.
Taking January and February as a whole to neutralise the distortion caused by the difference in timing of the Lunar New Year holidays, the value of total exports of goods (comprising re-exports and domestic exports) dropped by 6.6% over the same period in 2015. Within this total, the value of re-exports decreased by 6.5%, while the value of domestic exports decreased by 17.2%. Concurrently, the value of imports of goods decreased by 9.5%. A visible trade deficit of $50.5 billion, equivalent to 9.1% of the value of imports of goods, was recorded in the first two months of 2016.
In February 2016, the value of total exports of goods decreased by 10.4% over a year earlier to $204.5 billion, after a year-on-year decrease of 3.8% in January 2016. Within this total, the value of re-exports decreased by 10.5% to $201.8 billion in February 2016, while the value of domestic exports decreased by 8.4% to $2.7 billion. Concurrently, the value of imports of goods decreased by 10.1% over a year earlier to $237.6 billion in February 2016, after a year-on-year decrease of 9.0% in January 2016. A visible trade deficit of $33.1 billion, equivalent to 13.9% of the value of imports of goods, was recorded in February 2016.
Comparing the three-month period ending February 2016 with the preceding three months on a seasonally adjusted basis, the value of total exports of goods decreased by 4.2%. Within this total, the value of re-exports decreased by 4.2%, while the value of domestic exports went down by 1.0%. Meanwhile, the value of imports of goods decreased by 3.3%.
Analysis by country/territory
Comparing February 2016 with February 2015, total exports to Asia as a whole went down by 7.5%. In this region, decreases were registered in the values of total exports to most major destinations, in particular the Philippines (-26.1%), Taiwan (-17.4%), Japan (-17.1%), Korea (-16.9%) and Thailand (-12.8%). The value of total exports to the mainland of China (the Mainland) also decreased by 6.4%. On the other hand, an increase was recorded in the value of total exports to India (+27.0%).
Apart from destinations in Asia, decreases were also registered in the values of total exports to some major destinations in other regions, in particular the United Kingdom (-26.6%), the USA (-23.2%) and Germany (-14.9%).
Over the same period of comparison, decreases were registered in the values of imports from some major suppliers, in particular Switzerland (-21.3%), the Mainland (-18.2%), Japan (-15.7%), Thailand (-9.1%) and Malaysia (-6.1%). Concurrently, increases were registered in the values of imports from India (+6.1%), Taiwan (+2.6%) and the USA (+1.8%).
For the first two months of 2016 as a whole, year-on-year decreases were registered in the values of total exports to most major destinations, in particular Taiwan (-12.2%), the USA (-11.2%), Thailand (-8.4%), Germany (-7.4%) and the Mainland (-7.3%).
Over the same period of comparison, year-on-year decreases were registered in the values of imports from most major suppliers, in particular Japan (-18.2%), Switzerland (-14.4%), Singapore (-11.9%), the Mainland (-11.6%) and Malaysia (-9.2%). On the other hand, a year-on-year increase was registered in the value of imports from India (+0.1%).
Analysis by major commodity
Comparing February 2016 with February 2015, decreases were registered in the values of total exports of some principal commodity divisions, in particular "telecommunications and sound recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment" (by $6.6 billion or -13.6%), "office machines and automatic data processing machines" (by $4.0 billion or -15.6%) and "miscellaneous manufactured articles (mainly jewellery, goldsmiths' and silversmiths' wares)" (by $3.3 billion or -23.7%). However, an increase was registered in the value of total exports of "non-metallic mineral manufactures" (by $2.2 billion or 22.0%).
Over the same period of comparison, decreases were registered in the values of imports of some principal commodity divisions, in particular "telecommunications and sound recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment" (by $9.6 billion or -20.4%), "office machines and automatic data processing machines" (by $2.8 billion or -13.0%) and "non-metallic mineral manufactures" (by $2.4 billion or -13.1%). However, an increase was registered in the value of imports of "miscellaneous manufactured articles (mainly jewellery, goldsmiths' and silversmiths' wares)" (by $1.7 billion or 11.7%).
For the first two months of 2016 as a whole, year-on-year decreases were registered in the values of total exports of most principal commodity divisions, in particular "office machines and automatic data processing machines" (by $11.2 billion or -17.8%), "miscellaneous manufactured articles (mainly jewellery, goldsmiths' and silversmiths' wares)" (by $4.9 billion or -14.9%) and "articles of apparel and clothing accessories" (by $4.3 billion or -17.5%). However, a year-on-year increase was registered in the value of total exports of "non-metallic mineral manufactures" (by $4.3 billion or 20.1%).
Over the same period of comparison, year-on-year decreases were registered in the values of imports of most principal commodity divisions, in particular "telecommunications and sound recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment" (by $17.0 billion or -15.1%), "office machines and automatic data processing machines" (by $7.9 billion or -15.0%) and "electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, and electrical parts thereof" (by $4.5 billion or -2.5%).
Commentary
A Government spokesman noted that merchandise exports stayed sluggish in February. Taking the first two months of 2016 together to remove the distortion caused by the difference in timing of the Chinese New Year holidays, the value of merchandise exports saw a larger year-on-year decline than in the fourth quarter of 2015, reflecting the increased headwinds from the weak global demand conditions, which also put a significant drag on the export performance of many other Asian economies.
The spokesman commented further that looking ahead, Hong Kong's external trading environment will still be subject to considerable downside risks in the near term, including those arising from a slow-growing global economy, monetary policy normalisation in the US, diverging monetary policies among major central banks and heightened geopolitical tensions in different parts of the world. The Government will monitor the situation closely.
Further information
Table 1 at the annex presents the analysis of external merchandise trade statistics for February 2016. Table 2 presents the original monthly trade statistics from January 2013 to February 2016, and Table 3 gives the seasonally adjusted series for the same period.
The values of total exports of goods to 10 main destinations for February 2016 are shown in Table 4, whereas the values of imports of goods from 10 main suppliers are given in Table 5.
Tables 6 and 7 show the values of total exports and imports of 10 principal commodity divisions for February 2016.
All the merchandise trade statistics described here are measured at current prices and no account has been taken of changes in prices between the periods of comparison. A separate analysis of the volume and price movements of external merchandise trade for February 2016 will be released in mid-April 2016.
The February 2016 issue of "Hong Kong External Merchandise Trade" contains detailed analysis on the performance of Hong Kong's external merchandise trade in February 2016. Detailed merchandise trade statistics analysed by commodity and by country/territory are published in the February 2016 issue of "Hong Kong Merchandise Trade Statistics". The two publications will be available in mid-April 2016. Users can download them free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp230.jsp).
Enquiries on merchandise trade statistics may be directed to the Trade Analysis Section (2) of the C&SD (Tel: 2582 5042).
Ends/Tuesday, March 29, 2016
Issued at HKT 16:30
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