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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) published today (October 15) the October 2015 issue of the Hong Kong Monthly Digest of Statistics (HKMDS).
Apart from providing up-to-date statistics, this issue also contains three feature articles entitled "Hong Kong Population Projections for 2015 to 2064", "Hong Kong Labour Force Projections for 2015 to 2064" and "Hong Kong Domestic Household Projections up to 2049".
A new set of population projections has been prepared using the mid-2014 population estimate as the population base. Based on this set of population projections, the labour force projections and domestic household projections have also been updated. The projection results were released on September 25, 2015. The following three feature articles provide a brief account of the method, assumptions and results of the projections.
"Hong Kong Population Projections for 2015 to 2064"
According to the latest projection results, the Hong Kong Resident Population is projected to increase from 7.24 million in mid-2014 to a peak of 8.22 million in mid-2043, and then decline to 7.81 million by mid-2064. Population ageing is expected to continue. Excluding foreign domestic helpers, the proportion of elderly aged 65 and over is projected to increase from 15% in 2014 to 23% in 2024 and 30% in 2034, and further rise to 36% in 2064.
In this set of projections, the projection period is extended from 30 years in previous rounds to 50 years to better discern the trends and profile of the future population. However, extending the projection period also increases the uncertainty of the projection results. Making reference to the practice of other advanced economies, apart from the baseline population projections, two additional projection scenarios, namely high and low population projections, have been compiled for reference.
For enquiries about this feature article, please contact the Demographic Statistics Section, C&SD (Tel: 3903 6933; email: population@censtatd.gov.hk).
"Hong Kong Labour Force Projections for 2015 to 2064"
The labour force is projected to increase slightly from 3.60 million in 2014 to 3.65 million in 2018, and then decrease to 3.43 million in 2031. It will then hover between 3.42 million and 3.43 million until 2038, before decreasing to 3.11 million in 2064.
The projections provide information on the projected labour supply in Hong Kong and its age and sex distribution during 2015 to 2064.
For enquiries about this feature article, please contact the Social Analysis and Research Section, C&SD (Tel: 2887 5208; email: ghs@censtatd.gov.hk).
"Hong Kong Domestic Household Projections up to 2049"
The number of domestic households is projected to increase from 2.43 million in 2014 to the peak at 2.93 million in 2044, and then slowly decline to 2.91 million in 2049. The average household size is projected to decrease from 2.9 in 2014 to 2.7 in 2049, following the past declining trend.
For enquiries about this feature article, please contact the Demographic Statistics Section, C&SD (Tel: 3903 6934; email: population@censtatd.gov.hk).
Published in bilingual form, the HKMDS is a compact volume of official statistics containing about 140 tables. It collects up-to-date statistical series on various aspects of the social and economic situation of Hong Kong. Topics include population; labour; external trade; National Income and Balance of Payments; prices; business performance; energy; housing and property; government accounts, finance and insurance; and transport, communications and tourism. For selected key statistical items, over 20 charts depicting the annual trend in the past decade and quarterly or monthly trend in the recent two years are also available. Users can download the Digest free of charge at the website of C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp140.jsp?productCode=B1010002).
Enquiries about the contents of the Digest can be directed to the Statistical Information Services Section of C&SD (Tel: 2582 4738).
Ends/Thursday, October 15, 2015
Issued at HKT 16:00
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