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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (October 21) the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for September 2011. According to the Composite CPI, overall consumer prices rose by 5.8% in September 2011 over the same month a year earlier, slightly larger than the corresponding increase (5.7%) in August 2011. Netting out the effects of all Government・s one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rate of increase in the Composite CPI (i.e. the underlying inflation rate) in September 2011 was 6.4%, also slightly larger than that in August (6.3%), mainly due to the enlarged increases in private housing rentals.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average monthly rate of change in the Composite CPI for the 3-month period from July to September 2011 was -0.6%, the same as that for the 3-month period from June to August 2011. Netting out the effects of all Government・s one-off relief measures, the average monthly rate of increase in the Composite CPI for the 3-month period from July to September 2011 was 0.5%, the same as that for the 3-month period from June to August 2011.
Analysed by sub-index, the year-on-year rates of increase in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 5.2%, 6.0% and 6.3% respectively in September 2011, which compared to 5.4%, 5.8% and 6.0% respectively in August. Netting out the effects of all Government・s one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rates of increase in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 6.1%, 6.5% and 6.5% respectively in September 2011, which compared to all 6.3% in August.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, for the 3-month period from July to September 2011, the average monthly rates of change in the seasonally adjusted CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were -2.2%, virtually nil and 0.4% respectively. The corresponding rates of change for the 3-month period from June to August 2011 were -2.3%, virtually nil and 0.4%. Netting out the effects of all Government・s one-off relief measures, the corresponding average monthly rates of increase in the seasonally adjusted CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) for the 3-month period from July to September 2011 were all 0.5%, and the corresponding rates of increase for the 3-month period from June to August 2011 were 0.4%, 0.5% and 0.5% respectively.
Amongst the various CPI components, year-on-year increases in prices were recorded in September 2011 for alcoholic drinks and tobacco (20.3% in the Composite CPI and 22.6% in the CPI(A), mainly due to the increase in tobacco duty by 41.5%); food (excluding meals bought away from home) (11.3% in the Composite CPI and 11.7% in the CPI(A)); clothing and footwear (8.7% in the Composite CPI and 7.9% in the CPI(A)); housing (8.3% in the Composite CPI and 7.3% in the CPI(A)); meals bought away from home (5.7% in the Composite CPI and 6.0% in the CPI(A)); transport (5.3% in the Composite CPI and 4.0% in the CPI(A)); miscellaneous goods (4.8% in the Composite CPI and 3.3% in the CPI(A)) and miscellaneous services (4.1% in the Composite CPI and 2.2% in the CPI(A)).
On the other hand, year-on-year decrease in prices were recorded in September 2011 for electricity, gas and water (-15.9% in the Composite CPI and -18.6% in the CPI(A), largely as a result of the Government・s electricity charge subsidy) and durable goods (-3.0% in the Composite CPI and -3.4% in the CPI(A)).
Taking the first nine months of 2011 together, the Composite CPI rose by 5.1% over a year earlier. The corresponding increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 5.7%, 4.9% and 4.8%. Netting out the effects of all Government・s one-off relief measures, the Composite CPI, CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 4.9%, 5.0%, 4.9% and 4.9% respectively in the first nine months of 2011 over a year earlier.
In the third quarter of 2011, the Composite CPI rose by 6.4% over a year earlier, while the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 7.7%, 6.0% and 5.9% respectively. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of all Government・s one-off relief measures were 6.1%, 6.1%, 6.2% and 6.2% respectively.
For the 12 months ended September 2011, the Composite CPI was on average 4.5% higher than in the preceding 12-month period. The respective increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 5.1%, 4.3% and 4.2%. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of all Government・s one-off relief measures were 4.3%, 4.4%, 4.3% and 4.3% respectively.
The new 2009/10-based CPI series, as was first announced by the C&SD on April 28, 2011, is compiled on the basis of the expenditure patterns obtained from the Household Expenditure Survey (HES) conducted during October 2009 to September 2010. It replaces the old 2004/05-based series for analysing consumer price changes. The old series will continue to be compiled in parallel with the new series until the reference month of December 2011. It is an established practice in Hong Kong for the HES to be conducted and for the CPI series to be rebased once every five years. Both the old and the new series of CPIs have been exhibiting a similar trend in recent months.
Commentary
A Government spokesman said that the underlying inflation rate went up marginally in September, thanks to the slight ease-back in food inflation after its almost uninterrupted rise over the past year. Meanwhile, private housing rentals showed an enlarged increase, reflecting the continued feed-through of higher fresh-letting private residential rentals.
The spokesman commented further that inflation is likely to climb up further in the near term before peaking out, as the lagged effects from earlier surges in international food prices and market rentals continue to filter through. Yet a more positive development has been the continued ease-backs of global food and commodities prices in recent months, which in the course of time should help alleviate imported inflation. The Government will closely monitor the local inflation situation, particularly its impact on the lower-income people.
Further information
The CPIs and year-on-year rates of change at section level for September 2011 are shown in Table 1. The time series on the year-on-year rates of change in the CPIs before and after removing the effects of one-off measures are shown in Table 2. For discerning the latest trend in consumer prices, it is also useful to look at the changes in the seasonally adjusted CPIs. The corresponding time series on the average monthly rates of change during the latest three months for the seasonally adjusted CPIs are shown in Table 3. The rates of change in the original and the seasonally adjusted Composite CPI and the underlying inflation rate are presented graphically in Chart 1.
More detailed CPI data (including year-on-year comparison, month-to-month comparison and seasonally adjusted data series) are available in the monthly reports. Users can download the September 2011 issue of the Monthly Report on the Consumer Price Index free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/statistical_report/prices_household_expenditure/index.jsp).
For enquiries about the CPIs, please contact the Consumer Price Index Section of the C&SD at telephone no. 2805 6403 or e-mail address cpi@censtatd.gov.hk.
Ends/Friday, October 21, 2011
Issued at HKT 16:36
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