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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (August 22) the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for July 2011. According to the Composite CPI, overall consumer prices rose by 7.9% in July 2011 over the same month a year earlier, larger than the corresponding increase (5.6%) in June 2011. The larger year-on-year rate of change in the Composite CPI in July was mainly due to the low base of comparison resulted from the Government's payment of public housing rentals in July last year. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rate of increase in the Composite CPI (i.e. the underlying inflation rate) in July 2011 was 5.8%, larger than that in June (5.5%), mainly due to the enlarged increases in private housing rentals, the prices of pork as well as the charges for package tours.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average monthly rate of increase in the Composite CPI for the three-month period from May to July 2011 was 0.3%, and that for the three-month period from April to June 2011 was 0.6%. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the average monthly rate of increase in the Composite CPI for the three-month period from May to July 2011 was 0.5%, and that for the three-month period from April to June 2011 was 0.6%.
Analysed by sub-index, the year-on-year rates of increase in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 12.5%, 6.2% and 5.4% respectively in July 2011, which compared to 5.9%, 5.6% and 5.4% respectively in June. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rates of increase in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 5.9%, 5.8% and 5.7% respectively in July 2011, which compared to 5.6%, 5.5% and 5.4% respectively in June.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, for the three-month period from May to July 2011, the average monthly rates of increase in the seasonally adjusted CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 0.1%, 0.3% and 0.4% respectively. The corresponding rates of increase for the three-month period from April to June 2011 were 0.5%, 0.6% and 0.6%. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the corresponding average monthly rates of increase in the seasonally adjusted CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) for the three-month period from May to July 2011 were all 0.5%, and the corresponding rates of change for the three-month period from April to June 2011 were 0.5%, 0.6% and 0.6% respectively.
Amongst the various CPI components, year-on-year increases in prices were recorded in July 2011 for alcoholic drinks and tobacco (20.1% in the Composite CPI and 22.4% in the CPI(A), mainly due to the increase in tobacco duty by 41.5%); housing (16.4% in the Composite CPI and 33.9% in the CPI(A), mainly due to the low base of comparison resulted from the Government's payment of public housing rentals in July last year); food (excluding meals bought away from home) (10.7% in the Composite CPI and 11.0% in the CPI(A)); clothing and footwear (7.3% in the Composite CPI and 7.4% in the CPI(A)); meals bought away from home (5.5% in the Composite CPI and 5.6% in the CPI(A)); transport (4.8% in the Composite CPI and 3.5% in the CPI(A)); miscellaneous goods (4.1% in the Composite CPI and 3.3% in the CPI(A)) and miscellaneous services (4.0% in the Composite CPI and 2.4% in the CPI(A)).
On the other hand, year-on-year decrease in prices were recorded in July 2011 for electricity, gas and water (-16.0% in the Composite CPI and -18.6% in the CPI(A), largely as a result of the Government's electricity charge subsidy) and durable goods (-3.3% in the Composite CPI and -3.7% in the CPI(A)).
Taking the first seven months of 2011 together, the Composite CPI rose by 5.0% over a year earlier. The corresponding increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 5.8%, 4.6% and 4.4%. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the Composite CPI, CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 4.6%, 4.7%, 4.5% and 4.5% respectively in the first seven months of 2011 over a year earlier.
For the three months ended July 2011, the Composite CPI rose by 6.3% over a year earlier, while the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 7.9%, 5.7% and 5.2% respectively. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures were 5.5%, 5.6%, 5.4% and 5.3% respectively.
For the 12 months ended July 2011, the Composite CPI was on average 4.1% higher than in the preceding 12-month period. The respective increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 4.8%, 3.8% and 3.6%. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures were 3.6%, 3.7%, 3.6% and 3.6% respectively.
The new 2009/10-based CPI series, as was first announced by the C&SD on April 28, 2011, is compiled on the basis of the expenditure patterns obtained from the Household Expenditure Survey (HES) conducted during October 2009 to September 2010. It replaces the old 2004/05-based series for analysing consumer price changes. The old series will continue to be compiled in parallel with the new series until the reference month of December 2011. It is an established practice in Hong Kong for the HES to be conducted and for the CPI series to be rebased once every five years. Both the old and the new series of CPIs have been exhibiting a similar trend in recent months.
Commentary
A Government spokesman said that the relatively large difference between the headline and underlying year-on-year rates of inflation in July was mainly due to the difference in timing of the waiving of public housing rentals, which took place in July to September last year but would fall in August to September this year. Underlying consumer price inflation, which nets out the effects of all the Government's one-off relief measures, is a more accurate indicator of the economic forces at work. It went up to 5.8% in July from 5.5% in June, largely reflecting higher food prices and private residential rentals.
The spokesman commented further that inflation is likely to remain notable in the near term, on the back of still-elevated global food prices, the further feed-through of higher private residential rentals, as well as higher domestic cost pressures amid the economic upturn. Yet a more positive development has been the stabilisation of food prices in the international markets over the past few months. The Government will continue to monitor the movements of global food and commodity prices, and remain vigilant about the local inflation situation, particularly its impact on the lower-income people.
Further information
The CPIs and year-on-year rates of change at section level for July 2011 are shown in Table 1. The time series on the year-on-year rates of change in the CPIs before and after removing the effects of one-off measures are shown in Table 2. For discerning the latest trend in consumer prices, it is also useful to look at the changes in the seasonally adjusted CPIs. The corresponding time series on the average monthly rates of change during the latest three months for the seasonally adjusted CPIs are shown in Table 3. The rates of change in the original and the seasonally adjusted Composite CPI and the underlying inflation rate are presented graphically in Chart 1.
More detailed CPI data (including year-on-year comparison, month-to-month comparison and seasonally adjusted data series) are available in the monthly reports. Users can download the July 2011 issue of the Monthly Report on the Consumer Price Index free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/statistical_report/prices_household_expenditure/index.jsp).
For enquiries about the CPIs, please contact the Consumer Price Index Section of the C&SD at telephone No. 2805 6403 or e-mail address cpi@censtatd.gov.hk.
Ends/Monday, August 22, 2011
Issued at HKT 16:31
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