****************************************************
The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (April 26) the results of the Quarterly Business Tendency Survey for the second quarter (Q2) of 2011.
Business situation
For all surveyed sectors taken together, more respondents expect their business situation to be better (27%), as compared to those expecting it to be worse (11%), in Q2 2011 over Q1 2011.
The prevalence of optimistic business expectations among respondents remains broadly unchanged in Q2 2011 when compared with the results of the Q1 2011 round. The proportion of respondents with favourable business outlook for Q2 2011 (27%) is similar to that of 26% in Q1 2011.
Analysed by sector, respondents in all the surveyed sectors have favourable business outlook for Q2 2011 on balance. In particular, significantly more respondents in the sectors of financing and insurance; and information and communications expect their business situation to be better, as compared to those expecting it to be worse, in Q2 2011 over Q1 2011.
A spokesman of the C&SD cautioned that the results of the survey should be interpreted with care. "In this type of survey on expectations, the views collected in the survey are affected by the events in the community occurring around the time of enumeration, and it is difficult to establish precisely the extent to which respondents' perception of the future accords with the underlying trends." The enumeration period for this survey round was from March 8, 2011 to April 12, 2011.
Volume of business/output
Respondents in all the surveyed sectors expect an increase in volume of business/output in Q2 2011 over Q1 2011 on balance. Consistent with the expectations on the overall business situation, significantly more respondents in the sectors of financing and insurance; and information and communications expect their volume of business/output to increase, as compared to those expecting it to decrease.
Employment
Respondents in all the surveyed sectors expect their employment to increase in Q2 2011 over Q1 2011 on balance. The financing and insurance; information and communications; construction; and retail sectors have significantly more respondents expecting their employment to increase, as against those expecting it to decrease.
Selling price/service charge
Respondents in all the surveyed sectors expect their selling price/service charge to go up in Q2 2011 over Q1 2011 on balance, and those in the accommodation and food services as well as the retail sectors have significantly more favourable expectations in particular.
Further information
The survey gathers views on short-term business performance from the senior management of about 560 prominent establishments in various sectors in Hong Kong with a view to providing a quick reference, with minimum time lag, for predicting the short-term future economic performance of the local economy.
As from the Q1 2009 survey, the Hong Kong Standard Industrial Classification Version 2.0 (HSIC V2.0) has been adopted for classifying the economic activities undertaken by surveyed establishments, based on which the industry sectors to which the establishments belong are determined. The survey covers ten major sectors in Hong Kong, including the manufacturing; construction; import/export trade and wholesale; retail; accommodation and food services; transportation, storage and courier services; information and communications; financing and insurance; real estate; and professional and business services sectors.
Views collected in the survey refer only to those of respondents on their own establishments rather than those on the respective sectors they are engaged in; and are limited to the expected direction of quarter-to-quarter change (e.g. "up", "same" or "down") but not the magnitude of change. In collecting views on the quarter-to-quarter changes, if the variable in question may be subject to seasonal variations, respondents are asked to provide the expected changes after excluding the normal seasonal variations.
Survey results are generally presented as "net balance", i.e. the difference between the percentage of respondents choosing "up" over that choosing "down". The percentage distribution of respondents among various response categories (e.g. "up", "same" and "down") reflects how varied their business expectations are. The "net balance", with its appropriate sign, indicates the direction of expected change in the variable concerned. A positive sign indicates a likely upward trend while a negative sign, a likely downward trend. However, the magnitude of the "net balance" reflects only the prevalence of optimism or pessimism, but not the magnitude of expected change, since information relating to such magnitude is not collected in the survey.
Furthermore, owing to sample size constraint, care should be taken in interpreting survey results involving a small percentage (e.g. less than 10%) of respondents in individual sectors.
Chart 1 shows the views on expected changes in business situation for the period Q2 2010 to Q2 2011.
Table 1 shows the net balances of views on expectations in respect of different variables for Q2 2011.
The survey results are published in greater detail in the "Report on Quarterly Business Tendency Survey, Q2 2011". Users can download the publication free of charge from the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/statistical_report/commerce_and_industry/index.jsp).
Users who have enquiries about the survey results may contact the Business Expectation Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel: 2805 6112 or E-mail: business-prospects@censtatd.gov.hk).
Ends/Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Issued at HKT 16:31
NNNN
