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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (October 21) the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for September 2010. According to the Composite CPI, overall consumer prices rose by 2.6% in September 2010 over the same month a year earlier, smaller than the corresponding increase (3.0%) in August 2010. The smaller increase in September 2010 than in August 2010 was mainly due to the low base of comparison in August 2009 when the Government's one-off electricity charge subsidy was paid for the final month. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rate of increase in the Composite CPI (i.e. the underlying inflation rate) in September 2010 was 2.2%, larger than that in August (1.9%), mainly due to the increases in public and private housing rentals. Also relevant was the enlarged increases in the prices of fresh fruits and fresh vegetables.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average monthly rate of change in the Composite CPI for the three-month period from July to September 2010 was -0.4%, which compared to -0.5% for the three-month period from June to August 2010. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the average monthly rate of change in the Composite CPI for the three-month period from July to September 2010 was 0.2%, and that for the three-month period from June to August 2010 was virtually nil.
Analysed by sub-index, the year-on-year rates of increase in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 3.2%, 2.5% and 2.0% respectively in September 2010, which compared to 3.6%, 3.0% and 2.5% respectively in August. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rates of increase in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 2.4%, 2.2% and 1.9% respectively in September 2010, which compared to 1.8%, 1.9% and 1.9% respectively in August.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, for the three-month period from July to September 2010, the average monthly rates of change in the seasonally adjusted CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were -1.1%, -0.1% and 0.1% respectively. The corresponding rates of change for the three-month period from June to August 2010 were -1.4%, -0.2% and virtually nil. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the corresponding average monthly rates of change in the seasonally adjusted CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) for the three-month period from July to September 2010 were 0.3%, 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, and the corresponding rates of change for the three-month period from June to August 2010 were 0.1%, virtually nil and virtually nil respectively.
Amongst the various CPI components, year-on-year increases in prices were recorded in September 2010 for electricity, gas and water (16.4% in the Composite CPI and 23.0% in the CPI(A), mainly because some households had used up the full amount of Government・s one-off electricity charge subsidy); food (excluding meals bought away from home) (5.2% in the Composite CPI and 5.1% in the CPI(A)); miscellaneous goods (2.8% in the Composite CPI and 2.6% in the CPI(A)); miscellaneous services (2.6% in the Composite CPI and 2.0% in the CPI(A)); transport (2.1% in the Composite CPI and 1.3% in the CPI(A)); meals bought away from home (2.0% in both the Composite CPI and CPI(A)); housing (1.7% in the Composite CPI and 2.5% in the CPI(A)); clothing and footwear (0.6% in the Composite CPI and 0.5% in the CPI(A)) and alcoholic drinks and tobacco (0.2% in the Composite CPI and 0.3% in the CPI(A)).
On the other hand, year-on-year decline in prices were recorded in September 2010 for durable goods (-3.0% in the Composite CPI and -2.6% in the CPI(A)).
Taking the first nine months of 2010 together, the Composite CPI rose by 2.3% over a year earlier. The corresponding increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 2.5%, 2.3% and 2.0%. Netting out the effects of all Government・s one-off relief measures, the Composite CPI, CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 1.4%, 1.4%, 1.4% and 1.5% respectively in the first nine months of 2010 over a year earlier.
In the third quarter of 2010, the Composite CPI rose by 2.3% over a year earlier, while the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 1.9%, 2.6% and 2.3% respectively. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of all Government・s one-off relief measures were all 2.0%.
For the 12 months ended September 2010, the Composite CPI was on average 2.0% higher than in the preceding 12-month period. The respective increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 2.5%, 2.0% and 1.6%. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of all Government・s one-off relief measures were 1.1%, 1.1%, 1.1% and 1.0% respectively.
Commentary
A Government spokesman says that the lower headline consumer price inflation in September than in August was mainly due to the lower base of comparison in August last year when the one-off electricity subsidy was paid for the final month.
The spokesman notes that netting out the effects of all Government・s one-off measures, underlying consumer price inflation edged up further in September. Both local and external price pressures went higher, as wages and rentals continued to rise in tandem with the economic recovery, and as import prices also saw upward pressures from a weaker US dollar and rising global food prices. Yet also relevant was the seasonal surge in food prices around the Mid-Autumn Festival, which fell in September this year but in October last year.
The spokesman adds that underlying inflation would see some further upside risks going forward, in particular if the local economy maintains brisk growth and if import prices remain elevated. Against this, however, the hefty productivity growth in the economy should continue to help alleviate part of the domestic cost pressures.
Further information
The CPIs and year-on-year rates of change at section level for September 2010 are shown in Table 1. The time series on the year-on-year rates of change in the CPIs before and after removing the effects of one-off measures are shown in Table 2. For discerning the latest trend in consumer prices, it is also useful to look at the changes in the seasonally adjusted CPIs. The corresponding time series on the average monthly rates of change during the latest three months for the seasonally adjusted CPIs are shown in Table 3. The rates of change in the original and the seasonally adjusted Composite CPI and the underlying inflation rate are presented graphically in Chart 1.
More detailed CPI data (including year-on-year comparison, month-to-month comparison and seasonally adjusted data series) are available in the monthly reports. Users can download the September 2010 issue of the Monthly Report on the Consumer Price Index free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/statistical_report/prices_household_expenditure/index.jsp). Print version of this publication is available for sale at HK$63 per issue. Purchase can be done in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address : 19/F Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel. : 2582 3025) or through mail order by returning a completed order form which can be downloaded from the C&SD・s website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat/mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp). Print version of the publication is also available for sale online at the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.bookstore.gov.hk).
For enquiries about the CPIs, please contact the Consumer Price Index Section of the C&SD at telephone no. 2805 6403 or email address cpi@censtatd.gov.hk.
Ends/Thursday, October 21, 2010
Issued at HKT 16:30
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