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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released the latest figures on retail sales today (July 2).
The value of total retail sales in May 2010, provisionally estimated at $25.9 billion, increased by 19.7% over a year earlier. After netting out the effect of price changes over the same period, the volume of total retail sales increased by 16.2% in May 2010 when compared with a year earlier. The relevant components of the Consumer Price Index are used as deflators.
The revised estimate of the value of total retail sales in April 2010, at $25.1 billion, increased by 15.5% over April 2009, while the volume of total retail sales increased by 12.4%.
Taking the first five months of 2010 together, total retail sales increased by 18.3% in value or 15.2% in volume over the same period a year earlier.
Analysed by broad type of retail outlet and comparing May 2010 with May 2009, the volume of sales of motor vehicles and parts increased the most, by 63.4%. This was followed by sales of jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts (+34.0% in volume); electrical goods and photographic equipment (+27.5%); commodities in department stores (+19.4%); miscellaneous consumer durable goods (+16.8%); footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories (+14.2%); furniture and fixtures (+12.4%); wearing apparel (+11.8%); miscellaneous consumer goods (+9.0%); food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (+7.1%); fuels (+2.5%); and commodities in supermarkets (+0.5%).
Based on the seasonally adjusted series, the volume of total retail sales decreased by 1.8% in the three months ending May 2010 when compared with the preceding three-month period.
These retail sales statistics are primarily intended to measure the sales receipts in respect of goods sold by local retail establishments, for gauging the short-term business performance of the local retail sector. They cover consumer spending on goods but not on services. Moreover, they include spending on goods by visitors in Hong Kong but not by Hong Kong residents outside Hong Kong. Hence they should not be regarded as a comprehensive indicator of overall consumer spending. In this context, it may be noted that the share of consumer spending on services in overall consumer spending has been increasing over time.
Users interested in the trend of overall consumer spending should refer to the quarterly series of private consumption expenditure (PCE), which is a major component of the Gross Domestic Product. Compiled from a wide range of data sources, PCE covers consumer spending on both goods (including goods purchased from all channels) and services by Hong Kong residents whether domestically or abroad.
Commentary
A Government spokesman says that retail sales continued to expand strongly in May over a year earlier, partly aided by the sharp rebound in inbound tourism from the low base in the same month last year due to human swine flu at that time. On a seasonally adjusted basis, retail sales volume dipped slightly in recent months after successive increases since mid-2009, suggesting the somewhat tempered consumer sentiment amidst the heightened uncertainties in the external environment, and the renewed increase in unemployment rate locally.
The spokesman adds that looking ahead, local consumer demand will be subject to uncertainties in the prevailing global recovery stemming from the evolving sovereign debt crisis in Europe. Nevertheless, the expected strength in inbound tourism should continue to render support for retail businesses.
Further information
Table 1 presents the revised figures on value index and value of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for April 2010 and the provisional figures for May 2010. The value index is compiled with the average monthly value index of retail sales from October 2004 to September 2005 taken as 100.
Table 2 presents the revised figures on volume index of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for April 2010 and the provisional figures for May 2010. The volume index is compiled with the average monthly volume index of retail sales from October 2004 to September 2005 taken as 100.
Table 3 shows the movement of the volume of total retail sales in terms of the year-on-year rate of change for a month compared with the same month in the preceding year based on the original series, and in terms of the rate of change for a three-month period compared with the preceding three-month period based on the seasonally adjusted series.
The classification of retail establishments follows the Hong Kong Standard Industrial Classification (HSIC), which is used in various economic surveys for classifying economic units into different industry classes. Upon the implementation of the new HSIC Version 2.0 by the C&SD in October 2008, the Monthly Survey of Retail Sales has been enhanced to adopt the new classification in compiling the retail sales statistics. Starting from the reference month of January 2009, all the retail sales statistics are compiled based on the HSIC Version 2.0.
The series of retail sales statistics under the HSIC Version 2.0 has also been backcasted to the base period (i.e. October 2004 to September 2005). Users who are interested in the backcasted series or have enquiries about the survey results may contact the Distribution Services Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel. : 2802 1258 or E-mail : mrs@censtatd.gov.hk).
More detailed statistics are given in the Report on Monthly Survey of Retail Sales. Users can download this publication free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/statistical_report/commerce_and_industry/index.jsp).
Ends/Friday, July 2, 2010
Issued at HKT 16:31
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