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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released the latest figures on retail sales today (March 30).
The value of total retail sales in February 2010, provisionally estimated at $26.9 billion, increased by 35.8% over a year earlier. After netting out the effect of price changes over the same period, the volume of total retail sales increased by 31.5% in February 2010 when compared with a year earlier. The relevant components of the Consumer Price Index are used as deflators.
The revised estimate of the value of total retail sales in January 2010, at $29.3 billion, increased by 6.5% when compared with January 2009, while the volume of total retail sales increased by 3.2%.
In interpreting these figures, it should be noted that retail sales tend to show greater volatility in the first two months of a year due to the timing of the Lunar New Year. The local consumer spending normally attains a seasonal high immediately before the Festival. As the Lunar New Year fell on February 14 this year but on January 26 last year, it is more appropriate to analyse the retail sales figures for January and February taken together in making year-on-year comparison.
Taking the first two months of 2010 together, total retail sales increased by 18.8 % in value or 15.1% in volume over the same period a year earlier.
Analysed by broad type of retail outlet and comparing the combined total for January and February 2010 with that a year earlier, the volume of sales of motor vehicles and parts increased the most, by 55.2%. This was followed by sales of miscellaneous consumer durable goods (+46.4% in volume); electrical goods and photographic equipment (+27.9%); jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts (+24.7%); commodities in department stores (+17.2%); furniture and fixtures (+17.1%); wearing apparel (+16.0%); footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories (+13.4%); food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (+12.4%); miscellaneous consumer goods (+5.8%); and commodities in supermarkets (+1.0%).
Based on the seasonally adjusted series, the volume of total retail sales increased by 7.3% in the three months ending February 2010 when compared with the preceding three-month period.
These retail sales statistics are primarily intended to measure the sales receipts in respect of goods sold by local retail establishments, for gauging the short-term business performance of the local retail sector. They cover consumer spending on goods but not on services. Moreover, they include spending on goods by visitors in Hong Kong but not by Hong Kong residents outside Hong Kong. Hence they should not be regarded as a comprehensive indicator of overall consumer spending. In this context, it may be noted that the share of consumer spending on services in overall consumer spending has been increasing over time.
Users interested in the trend of overall consumer spending should refer to the quarterly series of private consumption expenditure (PCE), which is a major component of the Gross Domestic Product. Compiled from a wide range of data sources, PCE covers consumer spending on both goods (including goods purchased from all channels) and services by Hong Kong residents whether domestically or abroad.
Commentary
A Government spokesman says that retail sales picked up strongly further in February, even after netting the distortion caused by the timing of the Lunar New Year. The improvement in labour market conditions along with the economic recovery has reinforced consumer confidence. The robust performance of inbound tourism has also been highly supportive.
The spokesman adds that going forward, consumer sentiment should stay firm, with the economy gathering further momentum.
Further information
Table 1 presents the revised figures on value index and value of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for January 2010 and the provisional figures for February 2010 (and also those for January and February combined). The value index is compiled with the average monthly value index of retail sales from October 2004 to September 2005 taken as 100.
Table 2 presents the revised figures on volume index of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for January 2010 and the provisional figures for February 2010 (and also those for January and February combined). The volume index is compiled with the average monthly volume index of retail sales from October 2004 to September 2005 taken as 100.
Table 3 shows the movement of the volume of total retail sales in terms of the year-on-year rate of change for a month compared with the same month in the preceding year based on the original series, and in terms of the rate of change for a three-month period compared with the preceding three-month period based on the seasonally adjusted series.
The classification of retail establishments follows the Hong Kong Standard Industrial Classification (HSIC), which is used in various economic surveys for classifying economic units into different industry classes. Upon the implementation of the new HSIC Version 2.0 by the C&SD in October 2008, the Monthly Survey of Retail Sales has been enhanced to adopt the new classification in compiling the retail sales statistics. Starting from the reference month of January 2009, all the retail sales statistics are compiled based on the HSIC Version 2.0.
The series of retail sales statistics under the HSIC Version 2.0 has also been backcasted to the base period (i.e. October 2004 to September 2005). Users who are interested in the backcasted series or have enquiries about the survey results may contact the Distribution Services Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel. : 2802 1258 or E-mail : mrs@censtatd.gov.hk).
More detailed statistics are given in the Report on Monthly Survey of Retail Sales. Users can download this publication free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/statistical_report/commerce_and_industry/index.jsp).
Ends/Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Issued at HKT 16:30
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