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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (March 22) the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for February 2010. According to the Composite CPI, overall consumer prices rose by 2.8% in February 2010 over the same month a year earlier, larger than that in January 2010 (1.0%). Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rate of increase in the Composite CPI (i.e. the underlying inflation rate) in February 2010 was 1.6%, larger than that in January 2010 (virtually nil).
The larger increase was mainly attributable to the difference in the timing of the Lunar New Year, which occurred in February this year but in January last year, resulting in a surge in the charges for package tours, the prices of fresh vegetables, the costs for meals bought away from home and the prices of poultry in February 2010.
Taking the first two months of 2010 together to neutralise the effect of the Lunar New Year, the Composite CPI rose by 1.9% over a year earlier. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the Composite CPI rose by 0.8% in the first two months of 2010 over a year earlier.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average monthly rate of change in the Composite CPI for the 3-month period from December 2009 to February 2010 was 0.4%, which compared to 0.3% for the 3-month period from November 2009 to January 2010. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the average monthly rate of change in the Composite CPI for the 3-month period from December 2009 to February 2010 was 0.3%, and that for the 3-month period from November 2009 to January 2010 was 0.2%.
Analysed by sub-index, the year-on-year rates of increase in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 3.4%, 2.7% and 2.2% respectively in February 2010, which compared to 1.7%, 0.9% and 0.5% respectively in January. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rates of change in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were +1.8%, +1.6% and +1.5% respectively in February 2010, which compared to +0.2%, -0.1% and -0.2% respectively in January.
Taking the first two months of 2010 together, the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 2.6%, 1.9% and 1.3% respectively over a year earlier. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 1.0%, 0.8% and 0.6% respectively in the first two months of 2010 over a year earlier.
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On a seasonally adjusted basis, for the 3-month period from December 2009 to February 2010, the average monthly rates of change in the seasonally adjusted CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 0.6%, 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. The corresponding rates of change for the 3-month period from November 2009 to January 2010 were 0.4%, 0.3% and 0.2%. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the corresponding average monthly rates of increase in the seasonally adjusted CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) for the 3-month period from December 2009 to February 2010 were 0.4%, 0.3% and 0.3% respectively, and for the 3-month period from November 2009 to January 2010 were 0.2%, 0.2% and 0.1% respectively.
Amongst the various CPI components, year-on-year increases in prices were recorded in February 2010 for electricity, gas and water (62.8% in the Composite CPI and 72.8% in the CPI(A), mainly because some households had used up the full amount of Government's one-off electricity charge subsidy); alcoholic drinks and tobacco (19.2% in the Composite CPI and 22.0% in the CPI(A)); food (excluding meals bought away from home) (4.7% in the Composite CPI and 5.0% in the CPI(A)); miscellaneous services (2.7% in the Composite CPI and 1.1% in the CPI(A)); clothing and footwear (2.6% in the Composite CPI and 3.4% in the CPI(A)); miscellaneous goods (1.9% in the Composite CPI and 1.8% in the CPI(A)); transport (1.5% in the Composite CPI and 1.0% in the CPI(A)) and meals bought away from home (1.1% in both the Composite CPI and CPI(A)).
On the other hand, year-on-year decline in prices were recorded in February 2010 for durable goods (-1.5% in the Composite CPI and -2.6% in the CPI(A)) and housing (-0.1% in both the Composite CPI and CPI(A)).
For the 3 months ended February 2010, the Composite CPI rose by 1.7% over a year earlier, while the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 2.3%, 1.6% and 1.2% respectively. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures were 0.7%, 0.8%, 0.7% and 0.5% respectively.
For the 12 months ended February 2010, the Composite CPI was on average 0.5% higher than in the preceding 12-month period. The respective increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 0.6%, 0.5% and 0.4%. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures were 0.6%, 0.6%, 0.6% and 0.5% respectively.
Commentary
A Government spokesman says that it is more meaningful to look at the inflation rate in the first two months of 2010 combined due to the distortion caused by the timing of the Lunar New Year. Overall price pressures have inched up but were still tame in early 2010.
The spokesman adds that looking ahead, import prices in overall terms are likely to stay soft in the near term, in face of the excess capacity in the global economy. Locally, the expansion in production capacity brought about by productivity growth and rising investment in recent quarters should help alleviate the pressure on local business costs. Overall, inflation rate, whilst likely to climb up further as the economic revival takes hold, is likely to remain relatively modest in the near term.
Further information
The CPIs and year-on-year rates of change at section level for February 2010 are shown in Table 1. The time series on the year-on-year rates of change in the CPIs before and after removing the effects of one-off measures are shown in Table 2. For discerning the latest trend in consumer prices, it is also useful to look at the changes in the seasonally adjusted CPIs. The corresponding time series on the average monthly rates of change during the latest 3 months for the seasonally adjusted CPIs are shown in Table 3. The rates of change in the original and the seasonally adjusted Composite CPI are presented graphically in Chart 1.
More detailed CPI data (including year-on-year comparison, month-to-month comparison and seasonally adjusted data series) are available in the monthly reports. Users can download the February 2010 issue of the Monthly Report on the Consumer Price Index free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/statistical_report/prices_household_expenditure/index.jsp). Print version of this publication is available for sale at HK$63 per issue. Purchase can be done in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address : 19/F Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel. : 2582 3025) or through mail order by returning a completed order form which can be downloaded from the C&SD's website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat/mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp). Print version of this publication is also available for sale online at the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.bookstore.gov.hk).
For enquiries about the CPIs, please contact the Consumer Price Index Section of the C&SD at telephone no. 2805 6403 or email address cpi@censtatd.gov.hk.
Ends/Monday, March 22, 2010
Issued at HKT 16:31
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