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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (January 22) the results of the Quarterly Business Tendency Survey for the first quarter (Q1) of 2010.
Business Situation
For all surveyed sectors taken together, more respondents expect their business situation to be better (29%), as compared to those expecting it to be worse (10%), in Q1 2010 over Q4 2009.
The business outlook for Q1 2010 is more favourable when compared with the results of the previous survey round. The proportion of respondents expecting their business situation in Q1 2010 on balance to be worse than that in the preceding quarter has decreased further to 10%, as compared with 17% in Q4 2009.
Analysed by sector, respondents in all of the surveyed sectors have favourable business outlook for Q1 2010 on balance. The financing and insurance sector stands out to have the most favourable business outlook, followed by the retail sector and the real estate sector. Significantly more respondents in these sectors expect their business situation to be better, as compared to those expecting it to be worse, in Q1 2010 over Q4 2009.
A spokesman of the C&SD cautioned that the results of the survey should be interpreted with care. ¡§In this type of survey on expectations, the views collected in the survey are affected by the events in the community occurring around the time of enumeration, and it is difficult to establish precisely the extent to which respondents¡¦ perception of the future accords with the underlying trends.¡¨ The enumeration period for this survey round was from December 8, 2009 to January 8, 2010.
Volume of Business/Output
Consistent with the expectations on the overall business situation, respondents in all of the surveyed sectors expect an increase in volume of business/output in Q1 2010 over Q4 2009 on balance. In particular, significantly more respondents in the financing and insurance, retail, real estate, and professional and business services sectors expect their volume of business to increase, as against those expecting it to decrease.
Employment
More respondents in the financing and insurance, real estate, construction, retail, and transportation, storage and courier services sectors expect their employment to increase, as compared to those expecting it to decrease, in Q1 2010 over Q4 2009. On the other hand, more respondents in the manufacturing sector expect their employment to decrease, as compared to those expecting it to increase.
Selling Price/Service Charge
More respondents in the real estate, financing and insurance, and import/export trade and wholesale sectors expect their selling price/service charge to go up, as against those expecting it to go down, in Q1 2010 over Q4 2009.
Further Information
The survey gathers views on short-term business performance from the senior management of about 560 prominent establishments in various sectors in Hong Kong with a view to providing a quick reference, with minimum time lag, for predicting the short-term future economic performance of the local economy.
As from the Q1 2009 survey, the Hong Kong Standard Industrial Classification Version 2.0 (HSIC V2.0) has been adopted for classifying the economic activities undertaken by surveyed establishments, based on which the industry sectors to which the establishments belong are determined. The survey covers ten major sectors in Hong Kong, including the manufacturing; construction; import/export trade and wholesale; retail; accommodation and food services; transportation, storage and courier services; information and communications; financing and insurance; real estate; and professional and business services sectors.
Views collected in the survey refer only to those of respondents on their own establishments rather than those on the respective sectors they are engaged in; and are limited to the expected direction of quarter-to-quarter change (e.g. "up", "same" or "down") but not the magnitude of change. In collecting views on the quarter-to-quarter changes, if the variable in question may be subject to seasonal variations, respondents are asked to provide the expected changes after excluding the normal seasonal variations.
Survey results are generally presented as "net balance", i.e. the difference between the percentages of respondents choosing "up" over that choosing "down". The percentage distribution of respondents among various response categories (e.g. "up", "same" and "down") reflects how varied their business expectations are. The "net balance", with its appropriate sign, indicates the direction of expected change in the variable concerned. A positive sign indicates a likely upward trend while a negative sign, a likely downward trend. However, the magnitude of the "net balance" reflects only the prevalence of optimism or pessimism, but not the magnitude of expected change, since information relating to such magnitude is not collected in the survey.
Furthermore, owing to sample size constraint, care should be taken in interpreting survey results involving a small percentage (e.g. less than 10%) of respondents in individual sectors.
Chart 1 shows the views on expected changes in business situation for the period Q1 2009 to Q1 2010.
Table 1 shows the net balances on views on expectations in respect of different variables for Q1 2010.
The survey results are published in greater detail in the "Report on Quarterly Business Tendency Survey, Q1 2010". Users can download the publication free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/statistical_report/commerce_and_industry/index.jsp).
Print version of the publication is available for sale at HK$13 per issue. Purchase can be done in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address : 19/F Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel. : 2582 3025) or through mail order by returning a completed order form which can be downloaded from the C&SD¡¦s website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat/mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp). Print version of the publication is also available for sale online at the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.bookstore.gov.hk).
Enquiries about the survey results may be directed to the Business Expectation Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel.: 2805 6112).
Ends/Friday, January 22, 2010
Issued at HKT 16:30
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