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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (October 23) the results of the Quarterly Business Tendency Survey for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2009.
Business Situation
For all surveyed sectors taken together, more respondents expect their business situation to be better (30%), as compared to those expecting it to be worse (17%), in Q4 2009 over Q3 2009. The prevalence of favourable business expectations among the respondents for Q4 2009 is observed for the first time since the outbreak of the financial tsunami in Q3 2008.
The business outlook for Q4 2009 shows further improvement when compared with the results of the previous two survey rounds. The proportion of respondents expecting their business situation in Q4 2009 to be better than that in the preceding quarter has risen to 30%, as compared with 20% and 11% respectively in Q3 2009 and Q2 2009.
Analysed by sector, respondents in most of the surveyed sectors have favourable business outlook for Q4 2009. The retail sector stands out to have the most favourable business outlook, followed by the financing and insurance sector. Significantly more respondents in these sectors expect their business situation to be better, as compared to those expecting it to be worse, in Q4 2009 over Q3 2009.
On the other hand, respondents in the construction sector have the most unfavourable business outlook. 38% of them expect their business situation to be worse in Q4 2009 when compared with Q3 2009.
A spokesman of the C&SD cautioned that the results of the survey should be interpreted with care. ˇ§In this type of survey on expectations, the views collected in the survey are affected by the events in the community occurring around the time of enumeration, and it is difficult to establish precisely the extent to which respondentsˇ¦ perception of the future accords with the underlying trends.ˇ¨ The enumeration period for this survey round was from September 8 to October 12, 2009.
Volume of Business/Output
Consistent with the expectations on the overall business situation, respondents in most of the surveyed sectors expect an increase in volume of business/output in Q4 2009 over Q3 2009. In particular, significantly more respondents in the retail sector and financing and insurance sector expect their volume of business to increase, as against those expecting it to decrease, in Q4 2009 over Q3 2009.
Employment
Respondents in most of the surveyed sectors have favourable employment outlook for Q4 2009. On the other hand, more respondents in the import/export trade and wholesale sector and information and communications sector expect their employment to decrease, as compared to those expecting it to increase, in Q4 2009 over Q3 2009.
Selling Price/Service Charge
More respondents in the real estate, retail, accommodation and food services, and transportation, storage and courier services sectors expect their selling price/service charge to go up, as against those expecting it to go down, in Q4 2009 over Q3 2009. In contrast, more respondents in the construction sector expect their tender price to decline, as against those expecting it to increase.
Further Information
The survey gathers views on short-term business performance from the senior management of about 520 prominent establishments in various sectors in Hong Kong with a view to providing a quick reference, with minimum time lag, for predicting the short-term future economic performance of the local economy.
As from the Q1 2009 survey, the Hong Kong Standard Industrial Classification Version 2.0 (HSIC V2.0) has been adopted for classifying the economic activities undertaken by surveyed establishments, based on which the industry sectors to which the establishments belong are determined. The survey covers ten major sectors in Hong Kong, including the manufacturing; construction; import/export trade and wholesale; retail; accommodation and food services; transportation, storage and courier services; information and communications; financing and insurance; real estate; and professional and business services sectors.
Views collected in the survey refer only to those of respondents on their own establishments rather than those on the respective sectors they are engaged in; and are limited to the expected direction of quarter-to-quarter change (e.g. "up", "same" or "down") but not the magnitude of change. In collecting views on the quarter-to-quarter changes, if the variable in question may be subject to seasonal variations, respondents are asked to provide the expected changes after excluding the normal seasonal variations.
Survey results are generally presented as "net balance", i.e. the difference between the percentages of respondents choosing "up" over that choosing "down". The percentage distribution of respondents among various response categories (e.g. "up", "same" and "down") reflects how varied their business expectations are. The "net balance", with its appropriate sign, indicates the direction of expected change in the variable concerned. A positive sign indicates a likely upward trend while a negative sign, a likely downward trend. However, the magnitude of the "net balance" reflects only the prevalence of optimism or pessimism, but not the magnitude of expected change, since information relating to such magnitude is not collected in the survey.
Furthermore, owing to sample size constraint, care should be taken in interpreting survey results involving a small percentage (e.g. less than 10%) of respondents in individual sectors.
Chart 1 shows the views on expected changes in business situation for the period Q4 2008 to Q4 2009.
Table 1 shows the net balances on views on expectations in respect of different variables for Q4 2009.
The survey results are published in greater detail in the "Report on Quarterly Business Tendency Survey, Q4 2009". Users can download the publication free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/statistical_report/commerce_and_industry/index.jsp).
Print version of the publication is available for sale at HK$13 per issue. Purchase can be done in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address : 19/F Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel. : 2582 3025) or through mail order by returning a completed order form which can be downloaded from the C&SD's website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat/mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp). Print version of the publication is also available for sale online at the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.bookstore.gov.hk).
Enquiries about the survey results may be directed to the Business Expectation Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel.: 2805 6112).
Ends/Friday, October 23, 2009
Issued at HKT 16:30
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