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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (August 20) the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for July 2009. According to the Composite CPI, overall consumer prices fell by 1.5% in July 2009 compared with the same month a year earlier. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average monthly rate of change in the Composite CPI for the 3-month period from May to July 2009 was -0.1%.
The year-on-year rates of change in the CPIs in July 2009 were still affected by various Government's one-off relief measures, in particular the implementation of electricity charge subsidy.
Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rate of change in the Composite CPI (i.e. the underlying rate of change) in July 2009 was -0.3%, lower than the corresponding rate of change of 0.4% in June 2009, mainly due to enlarged decrease in food prices and smaller increase in private housing rentals. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average monthly rate of change in the underlying Composite CPI for the 3-month period from May to July 2009 was -0.1%, and corresponding rate of change for the 3-month period from April to June 2009 was -0.2%.
Analysed by sub-index, the year-on-year rates of change in the headline CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were -2.2%, -1.4% and -0.9% respectively in July 2009, which compared to the corresponding rates of change of -1.6%, -0.7% and -0.3% respectively in June. Netting out the effects of all Government・s one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rates of change in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were -0.3%, -0.2% and -0.3% respectively in July 2009, which compared to the corresponding rates of change of 0.3%, 0.5% and 0.4% respectively in June. The larger difference between the change in headline and underlying CPI(A) reflected that Government's one-off relief measures had larger impacts on the lower expenditure households.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, for the 3-month period from May to July 2009, the average monthly rates of change in the seasonally adjusted Composite CPI, CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were -0.1%, -0.1%, -0.1% and -0.2% respectively. The corresponding rates of change for the 3-month period from April to June 2009 were -0.1%, -0.2%, -0.1% and -0.2%. Netting out the effects of all Government・s one-off relief measures, the corresponding average monthly rates of change in the seasonally adjusted Composite CPI, CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) for the 3-month period from May to July 2009 were all -0.1%, and the corresponding rates of change for the 3-month period from April to June 2009 were all -0.2%.
Amongst the various CPI components, large year-on-year decline in prices was recorded in July 2009 for electricity, gas and water (-42.3% in the Composite CPI and -47.3% in the CPI(A)), largely as a result of Government・s electricity charge subsidy. Declines were also recorded for miscellaneous services (-3.8% in the Composite CPI and -4.6% in the CPI(A)); durable goods (-3.4% in the Composite CPI and -3.7% in the CPI(A)); food (excluding meals bought away from home) (-2.6% in the Composite CPI and -3.0% in the CPI(A)) and transport (-2.3% in the Composite CPI and -0.4% in the CPI(A)).
On the other hand, year-on-year increases in prices were recorded in July 2009 for alcoholic drinks and tobacco (22.8% in the Composite CPI and 25.9% in the CPI(A)); housing (2.7% in the Composite CPI and 1.9% in the CPI(A)); miscellaneous goods (1.5% in the Composite CPI and 1.9% in the CPI(A)); clothing and footwear (1.3% in the Composite CPI and 2.0% in the CPI(A)) and meals bought away from home (0.8% in the Composite CPI and 1.0% in the CPI(A)).
Taking the first seven months of 2009 together, the Composite CPI rose by 0.5% over a year earlier. The corresponding changes in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were -0.2%, 0.6% and 1.0%. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the Composite CPI, CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 1.8%, 1.7%, 1.8% and 1.8% respectively in the first seven months of 2009 over a year earlier.
For the 3 months ended July 2009, the Composite CPI fell by 0.8% over a year earlier, while the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) fell by 1.4%, 0.6% and 0.2% respectively. After netting out the effects of all Government・s one-off relief measures, the Composite CPI, CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 0.5%, 0.4%, 0.5% and 0.4% respectively.
For the 12 months ended July 2009, the Composite CPI was on average 1.5% higher than in the preceding 12-month period. The respective increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 0.2%, 1.8% and 2.4%. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures were 3.4%, 3.3%, 3.4% and 3.3% respectively.
Commentary
A Government spokesman says that consumer prices eased further in July as local and external price pressures were both virtually absent. Indeed, this is part of a global phenomenon, with many other economies around the world already experiencing declines in consumer prices consequential to the global financial tsunami.
The spokesman adds that underlying consumer price inflation is likely to stay slightly negative in the coming months, as local price pressures continue to subside and import prices remain soft. This is all part and parcel of the necessary economic adjustment process to weather the shocks of the global financial crisis and economic recession.
Further information
The CPIs and year-on-year rates of change at section level for July 2009 are shown in Table 1. The time series on the year-on-year rates of change in the CPIs before and after removing the effects of one-off measures are shown in Table 2. For discerning the latest trend in consumer prices, it is also useful to look at the changes in the seasonally adjusted CPIs. The corresponding time series on the average monthly rates of change during the latest 3 months for the seasonally adjusted CPIs are shown in Table 3. The rates of change in the original and the seasonally adjusted Composite CPI are presented graphically in Chart 1.
More detailed CPI data (including year-on-year comparison, month-to-month comparison and seasonally adjusted data series) are available in the monthly reports. Users can download the July 2009 issue of the Monthly Report on the Consumer Price Index free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/statistical_report/prices_household_expenditure/index.jsp). Print version of this publication is available for sale at HK$52 per issue. Purchase can be done in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address : 19/F Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel. : 2582 3025) or through mail order by returning a completed order form which can be downloaded from the C&SD・s website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat/mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp). Print version of this publication is also available for sale online at the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.bookstore.gov.hk).
For enquiries about the CPIs, please contact the Consumer Price Index Section of the C&SD at telephone no. 2805 6403 or email address cpi@censtatd.gov.hk.
Ends/Thursday, August 20, 2009
Issued at HKT 16:30
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