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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released the latest figures on retail sales today (May 4).
The value of total retail sales in March 2009, provisionally estimated at $20.8 billion, decreased by 7.7% when compared with a year earlier. After netting out the effect of price changes over the same period, the volume of total retail sales decreased by 9.3% in March 2009 when compared with a year earlier. The relevant components of the Consumer Price Index are used as deflators.
The revised estimate of the value of total retail sales in February 2009, at $19.8 billion, decreased by 12.7% when compared with February 2008, while the volume of total retail sales decreased by 13.9%. This came after an increase of 7.4% in value or 5.4% in volume in January. It should be noted that retail sales tend to show greater volatility in the first two months of a year due to the timing of the Lunar New Year, against the background that the local consumer spending normally attains a seasonal high immediately before the Festival. For the first two months of 2009 combined, retail sales decreased by 2.1% in value or 3.7% in volume from a year earlier.
Taking the first three months of 2009 together, total retail sales in the first quarter decreased by 3.9% in value or 5.5% in volume when compared with the same period a year earlier.
Analysed by broad type of retail outlet and comparing March 2009 with March 2008, the volume of sales of motor vehicles and parts decreased the most, by 32.6%. This was followed by sales of wearing apparel (-19.6% in volume); miscellaneous consumer durable goods (-19.1%); furniture and fixtures (-14.9%); miscellaneous consumer goods (-10.0%); jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts (-9.7%); commodities in department stores (-7.9%); commodities in supermarkets (-3.6%); footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories (-3.3%); and food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (-2.5%).
On the other hand, the volume of sales of fuels increased by 4.6% while that of electrical goods and photographic equipment increased by 0.6% in March 2009 when compared with a year earlier.
Based on the seasonally adjusted series, the volume of total retail sales decreased by 3.7% in the first quarter of 2009 compared with the preceding quarter.
These retail sales statistics are primarily intended to measure the sales receipts in respect of goods sold by local retail establishments, for gauging the short-term business performance of the local retail sector. They cover consumer spending on goods but not on services. Moreover, they include spending on goods by visitors in Hong Kong but not by Hong Kong residents outside Hong Kong. Hence they should not be regarded as a comprehensive indicator of overall consumer spending. In this context, it may be noted that the share of consumer spending on services in overall consumer spending has been increasing over time.
Users interested in the trend of overall consumer spending should refer to the quarterly series of private consumption expenditure (PCE), which is a major component of the Gross Domestic Product. Compiled from a wide range of data sources, PCE covers consumer spending on both goods (including goods purchased from all channels) and services by Hong Kong residents whether domestically or abroad.
Commentary
A Government spokesman says that retail sales weakened in March 2009. Although the improved performance of the stock and property markets since the beginning of the year rendered some support to consumer sentiment, uncertain job and income prospects continued to weigh on consumption spending, particularly spending of big-ticket items like motor cars, furniture, and jewellery.
The spokesman comments further that the near-term prospects for the retail business will continue to be overshadowed by the economic downturn. Nevertheless, the Government¡¦s efforts to preserve employment and the stable performance of inbound tourism should help to provide some support. The Government will also closely monitor the threat posed by the recent outbreak of swine flu in North America to the global economy and to world tourism.
Further information
Table 1 presents the revised figures on value index and value of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for February 2009 and the provisional figures for March 2009. The value index is compiled with the average monthly value index of retail sales from October 2004 to September 2005 taken as 100.
Table 2 presents the revised figures on volume index of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for February 2009 and the provisional figures for March 2009. The volume index is compiled with the average monthly volume index of retail sales from October 2004 to September 2005 taken as 100.
Table 3 shows the movement of the volume of total retail sales in terms of the year-on-year rate of change for a month compared with the same month in the preceding year based on the original series, and in terms of the rate of change for a three-month period compared with the preceding three-month period based on the seasonally adjusted series.
The classification of retail establishments follows the Hong Kong Standard Industrial Classification (HSIC), which is used in various economic surveys for classifying economic units into different industry classes. Upon the implementation of the new HSIC Version 2.0 by the C&SD in October 2008, the Monthly Survey of Retail Sales has been enhanced to adopt the new classification in compiling the retail sales statistics. Starting from the reference month of January 2009, all the retail sales statistics, unless otherwise specified, are compiled based on the HSIC Version 2.0.
The series of retail sales statistics under the HSIC Version 2.0 has also been backcasted to the base period (i.e. October 2004 to September 2005). Readers who are interested in the backcasted series or have enquiries about the survey results may contact the Distribution Services Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel. : 2802 1258 or E-mail : mrs@censtatd.gov.hk).
Users can download the Report on Monthly Survey of Retail Sales free of charge at the website of the C&SD (http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/statistical_report/commerce_and_industry/index.jsp).
Print version of this publication is available for sale at HK$12 per issue. Purchase can be done in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address : 19/F Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel. : 2582 3025) or through mail order by returning a completed order form which can be downloaded from the C&SD¡¦s website (http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat/mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp). Print version of this publication is also available for sale online at the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.bookstore.gov.hk).
Ends/Monday, May 4, 2009
Issued at HKT 16:31
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