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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (March 20) the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for February 2009. According to the Composite CPI, overall consumer prices rose by 0.8% in February 2009 over the same month a year earlier. The year-on-year rates of change in the CPIs in January and February 2009 were affected by the timing of the Lunar New Year, which fell in January this year but in February last year. Taking the first two months of 2009 together to neutralise the effect of the Lunar New Year, the Composite CPI increased by 2.0% over a year earlier. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average monthly rate of change in the Composite CPI for the 3-month period from December 2008 to February 2009 was -0.2%.
The year-on-year rates of change in the CPIs in January and February 2009 were also affected by various Government's one-off relief measures, in particular the implementation of electricity charge subsidy. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rate of increase in the Composite CPI (i.e. the underlying inflation rate) in February 2009 was 2.1%. Taking the first two months of 2009 together to remove the distortion caused by the difference in the timing of the Lunar New Year between the two years, the underlying inflation rate was 3.3%, smaller than that in December 2008 (4.6%). The smaller increase was largely due to the moderation in year-on-year increases in food prices and private housing rentals. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average monthly rate of change in the underlying Composite CPI for the 3-month period from December 2008 to February 2009 was -0.2%, and that for the 3-month period from November 2008 to January 2009 was virtually nil.
Analysed by sub-index, the year-on-year rates of increase in the headline CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 0.1%, 0.9% and 1.4% respectively in February 2009, which compared to 2.1%, 3.4% and 3.7% respectively in January. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rates of increase in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 1.9%, 2.2% and 2.3% respectively in February 2009, which compared to 4.2%, 4.7% and 4.5% respectively in January. The larger difference between the change in headline and underlying CPI(A) reflected that Government's one-off relief measures had larger impacts on the lower expenditure households.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, for the 3-month period from December 2008 to February 2009, the average monthly rates of change in the seasonally adjusted Composite CPI, CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were -0.2%, -0.1%, -0.2% and -0.3% respectively. The corresponding rates of change for the 3-month period from November 2008 to January 2009 were 0.5%, 1.4%, 0.2% and -0.2%. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the corresponding average monthly rates of change in the Composite CPI, CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) for the 3-month period from December 2008 to February 2009 were -0.2%, -0.1%, -0.2% and -0.3% respectively, and the corresponding rates of change in the Composite CPI, CPI(A) and CPI(B) for the 3-month period from November 2008 to January 2009 were virtually nil while that in the CPI(C) was -0.1%.
Amongst the various CPI components, year-on-year increases in prices were recorded in February 2009 for housing (6.9% in the Composite CPI and 5.7% in the CPI(A)); miscellaneous goods (3.2% in the Composite CPI and 3.5% in the CPI(A)); food (excluding meals bought away from home) (3.1% in both the Composite CPI and CPI(A)); meals bought away from home (3.0% in the Composite CPI and 2.9% in the CPI(A)); alcoholic drinks and tobacco (1.8% in the Composite CPI and 2.8% in the CPI(A)); clothing and footwear (1.4% in the Composite CPI and 1.5% in the CPI(A)) and transport (0.4% in the Composite CPI and 1.8% in the CPI(A)).
On the other hand, large year-on-year decline in prices was recorded in February 2009 for electricity, gas and water (-43.1% in the Composite CPI and -48.1% in the CPI(A)), largely as a result of Government's electricity charge subsidy. Declines were also recorded for miscellaneous services (-4.0% in the Composite CPI and -4.9% in the CPI(A)) and durable goods (-3.0% in both the Composite CPI and CPI(A)).
Taking the first two months of 2009 together, the Composite CPI rose by 2.0% over a year earlier. The corresponding increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 1.2%, 2.1% and 2.5%. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the Composite CPI, CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 3.3%, 3.0%, 3.4% and 3.4% respectively in the first two months of 2009 over a year earlier.
For the 3 months ended February 2009, the Composite CPI rose by 2.0% over a year earlier, while the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 1.2%, 2.2% and 2.6% respectively. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures were 3.7%, 3.6%, 3.8% and 3.7% respectively.
For the 12 months ended February 2009, the Composite CPI was on average 3.8% higher than in the preceding 12-month period. The respective increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 2.7%, 4.2% and 4.5%. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures were 5.3%, 5.3%, 5.4% and 5.2% respectively.
Commentary
A Government spokesman commented that the easing trend in consumer price inflation in the first two months of 2009 was evident both from the year-on-year increase and the month-to-month rate of change in the seasonally adjusted series. The spokesman explained that this reflected the flexibility of local costs and prices to adjust in response to the economic downturn.
The spokesman expects inflationary pressure in Hong Kong to recede further over the course of 2009, as the local economy comes under the increasing impact of the deepening global recession.
Further information
The CPIs and year-on-year rates of change at section level for February 2009 are shown in Table 1. The time series on the year-on-year rates of change in the CPIs before and after removing the effects of one-off measures are shown in Table 2. For discerning the latest trend in consumer prices, it is also useful to look at the changes in the seasonally adjusted CPIs. The corresponding time series on the average monthly rates of change during the latest 3 months for the seasonally adjusted CPIs are shown in Table 3. The rates of change in the original and the seasonally adjusted Composite CPI are presented graphically in Chart 1.
More detailed CPI data (including year-on-year comparison, month-to-month comparison and seasonally adjusted data series) are available in the monthly reports. Users can download the February 2009 issue of the Monthly Report on the Consumer Price Index free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/statistical_report/prices_household_expenditure/index.jsp). Print version of this publication is available for sale at HK$52 per issue. Purchase can be done in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address: 19/F Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel.: 2582 3025) or through mail order by returning a completed order form which can be downloaded from the C&SD's website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat/mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp). Print version of this publication is also available for sale online at the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.bookstore.gov.hk).
For enquiries about the CPIs, please contact the Consumer Price Index Section of the C&SD at telephone no. 2805 6403 or email address (cpi@censtatd.gov.hk).
Ends/Friday, March 20, 2009
Issued at HKT 16:30
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