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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (February 23) the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for January 2009. According to the Composite CPI, overall consumer prices rose by 3.1% in January 2009 over the same month a year earlier. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average monthly rate of change in the Composite CPI for the 3-month period from November 2008 to January 2009 was 0.5%.
The 3.1% year-on-year increase in January 2009 was larger than the corresponding 2.1% increase in December 2008. It was because the year-on-year rate of change in December 2008 was lowered by the rates concession implemented only in December 2008 (but not in December 2007). On the other hand, the year-on-year rate of change in January 2009 was not affected by this measure as the rates concession was implemented in both January this year and last year.
Nevertheless, the year-on-year rates of change in the CPIs in January 2009 were still affected by other Government's one-off relief measures, in particular the implementation of electricity charge subsidy.
Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rate of increase in the Composite CPI in January 2009 (i.e. the underlying inflation rate) was 4.5%, slightly smaller than that in December 2008 (4.6%), largely due to smaller increase in private housing rentals and decrease in basic electricity charges. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average monthly rate of change in the underlying Composite CPI for the 3-month period from November 2008 to January 2009 was virtually nil, the same as that for the 3-month period from October to December 2008.
Analysed by sub-index, the year-on-year rates of increase in the headline CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 2.1%, 3.4% and 3.7% respectively in January 2009, which compared to 1.2%, 2.4% and 2.7% respectively in December 2008. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rates of increase in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 4.2%, 4.7% and 4.5% respectively in January 2009, which compared to 4.7%, 4.7% and 4.4% respectively in December 2008. The larger difference between the change in headline and underlying CPI(A) reflected that Government's one-off relief measures had larger impacts on the lower expenditure households.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, for the 3-month period from November 2008 to January 2009, the average monthly rates of change in the seasonally adjusted Composite CPI, CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 0.5%, 1.4%, 0.2% and -0.2% respectively. The corresponding rates of change for the 3-month period from October to December 2008 were 0.6%, 1.5%, 0.3% and virtually nil. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the corresponding average monthly rates of change in the Composite CPI, CPI(A) and CPI(B) for the 3-month period from November 2008 to January 2009 were all virtually nil while that in CPI(C) was -0.1%, which compared to virtually nil, 0.1%, 0.1% and virtually nil respectively for the 3-month period from October to December 2008.
Amongst the various CPI components, large year-on-year increase in prices was still recorded in January 2009 for food (excluding meals bought away from home) (11.2% in the Composite CPI and 12.1% in the CPI(A)), as affected by the price increases recorded in the early half of 2008. Food items showing larger price increases were rice (39.6% in the Composite CPI as compared with a year earlier); fresh-water fish (27.9%); poultry (26.1%); salt-water fish (23.4%); canned meat (22.0%) and eggs (20.6%).
Apart from food (excluding meals bought away from home), year-on-year increases in prices were recorded in January 2009 for housing (7.3% in the Composite CPI and 5.3% in the CPI(A)); meals bought away from home (4.5% in the Composite CPI and 4.4% in the CPI(A)); miscellaneous goods (4.0% in the Composite CPI and 4.2% in the CPI(A)) and transport (1.6% in the Composite CPI and 2.7% in the CPI(A)).
On the other hand, large year-on-year decline in prices was recorded in January 2009 for electricity, gas and water (-42.0% in the Composite CPI and -46.8% in the CPI(A)), largely as a result of Government's electricity charge subsidy. Declines were also recorded for durable goods (-3.2% in the Composite CPI and -3.1% in the CPI(A)) and alcoholic drinks and tobacco (-0.9% in the Composite CPI and -0.2% in the CPI(A)).
As for miscellaneous services, the Composite CPI rose by 1.5% over a year earlier but the CPI(A) fell by 1.7%. In January 2009, charges of package tour recorded significant year-on-year increases, as the Lunar New Year Festival fell in January this year but in February last year. Affected by the difference in expenditure patterns, such increase had larger impacts on the Composite CPI than on the CPI(A). On the other hand, the implementation of the free senior secondary education had larger impacts on the CPI(A). The two factors above led to different movements in the two CPIs in January 2009.
As for clothing and footwear, the Composite CPI fell by 0.2% over a year earlier but the CPI(A) rose by 1.0%.
For the 3 months ended January 2009, the Composite CPI rose by 2.7% over a year earlier, while the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 1.9%, 3.0% and 3.3% respectively. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures were 4.9%, 4.8%, 5.0% and 4.7% respectively.
For the 12 months ended January 2009, the Composite CPI was on average 4.3% higher than in the preceding 12-month period. The respective increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 3.5%, 4.6% and 4.7%. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures were 5.6%, 5.6%, 5.7% and 5.4% respectively.
Commentary
A Government spokesman said that underlying inflation continued to ease in recent months, as both local and external price pressures receded after the outbreak of the global financial turmoil. Looking ahead, inflation in Hong Kong is expected to come down over the course of 2009 as the impact of the global synchronised downturn continues to play out and weigh on local economic activity.
The spokesman added that the year-on-year headline consumer price inflation in January 2009 was higher than that in December last year. The lower headline inflation rate in December 2008 was due to rates concession being implemented in December 2008 but not in December 2007. Netting out the effects of one-off measures, underlying inflation in January 2009 was actually marginally lower than in December last year. Also, the year-on-year inflation rates in January would have been lower if not for the timing of the Lunar New Year, which fell in January this year but in February last year.
Further information
The CPIs and year-on-year rates of change at section level for January 2009 are shown in Table 1. The time series on the year-on-year rates of change in the CPIs before and after removing the effects of one-off measures are shown in Table 2. For discerning the latest trend in consumer prices, it is also useful to look at the changes in the seasonally adjusted CPIs. The corresponding time series on the average monthly rates of change for the seasonally adjusted CPIs are shown in Table 3. The rates of change in the original and the seasonally adjusted Composite CPI are presented graphically in Chart 1.
More detailed CPI data (including year-on-year comparison, month-to-month comparison and seasonally adjusted data series) are available in the monthly reports. Users can download the January 2009 issue of the Monthly Report on the Consumer Price Index free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/statistical_report/prices_household_expenditure/index.jsp). Print version of this publication is available for sale at HK$52 per issue. Purchase can be done in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address: 19/F Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel.: 2582 3025) or through mail order by returning a completed order form which can be downloaded from the C&SD's website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat/mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp). Print version of this publication is also available for sale online at the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.bookstore.gov.hk).
For enquiries about the CPIs, please contact the Consumer Price Index Section of the C&SD at telephone no. 2805 6403 or email address (cpi@censtatd.gov.hk).
Ends/Monday, February 23, 2009
Issued at HKT 16:30
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