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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (December 22) the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for November 2008. According to the Composite CPI, overall consumer prices rose by 3.1% in November 2008 over a year earlier.
The 3.1% year-on-year increase in November 2008 was larger than the 1.8% increase in the overall Composite CPI in October 2008, as the impact of Government's payment of public housing rentals during August to October 2008 dissipated in November.
Nevertheless, the year-on-year rates of change in the CPIs in November 2008 were still affected by a number of Government's one-off relief measures, in particular the implementation of electricity charge subsidy and the rates concession.
Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rate of increase in the Composite CPI in November 2008 (i.e. the underlying inflation rate) was 5.6%, smaller than that in October (5.9%), due mainly to the decreases in prices of motor fuel, fuel cost variation charge for towngas as well as prices of liquefied petroleum gas and other fuel.
Analysed by sub-index, the year-on-year rates of change in the headline CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 2.1%, 3.3% and 3.8% respectively in November 2008, which compared to -1.7%, 2.8% and 4.3% respectively in October. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rates of increase in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 5.6%, 5.6% and 5.5% respectively in November 2008, which compared to 6.0%, 6.0% and 5.9% respectively in October. The larger difference between the change in headline and underlying CPI(A) reflected that Government's one-off relief measures had larger impacts on the lower expenditure households.
For discerning the latest trend in consumer prices, it is also useful to look at the changes in the seasonally adjusted CPIs. For the 3-month period from September to November 2008, the average monthly rates of change in the seasonally adjusted Composite CPI, CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 0.3%, 0.9%, 0.1% and 0.1% respectively. The corresponding rates of change for the 3-month period from August to October 2008 were -0.8%, -1.9%, -0.5% and 0.1%. However, it should be noted that these rates of change were affected by Government's one-off relief measures implemented only in some months. Netting out these effects, the corresponding average monthly rates of increase in the Composite CPI, CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) for the 3-month period from September to November 2008 were 0.2%, 0.1%, 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, same as those for the 3-month period from August to October 2008.
Amongst the various CPI components, larger year-on-year increase in prices was recorded in November 2008 for food (excluding meals bought away from home) (14.9% in the Composite CPI and 16.1% in the CPI(A)) in November 2008. Food items showing larger price increases were rice (54.1% in the Composite CPI as compared with a year earlier); fresh-water fish (27.3%); canned meat (25.8%); eggs (25.2%); beef (23.9%); poultry (21.1%) and fresh vegetables (20.4%).
Apart from food (excluding meals bought away from home), year-on-year increases in prices were recorded in November 2008 for meals bought away from home (5.7% in the Composite CPI and 5.8% in the CPI(A)); housing (4.6% in the Composite CPI and 1.9% in the CPI(A)); miscellaneous goods (4.0% in the Composite CPI and 4.3% in the CPI(A)); transport (1.9% in the Composite CPI and 1.5% in the CPI(A)) and clothing and footwear (0.5% in the Composite CPI and 1.4% in the CPI(A)).
On the other hand, large year-on-year decline in prices was recorded in November 2008 for electricity, gas and water (-35.3% in the Composite CPI and -40.7% in the CPI(A)), largely as a result of Government's electricity charge subsidy. Declines were also recorded for durable goods (-0.8% in the Composite CPI and -1.1% in the CPI(A)) and alcoholic drinks and tobacco (-0.6% in the Composite CPI and -0.1% in the CPI(A)).
As for miscellaneous services, the Composite CPI remained unchanged over a year earlier but the CPI(A) fell by 2.7%, as the implementation of the free senior secondary education had larger impacts on the CPI(A) due to different expenditure patterns.
Taking the first eleven months of 2008 together, the Composite CPI rose by 4.5% over a year earlier. The corresponding increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 3.8%, 4.8% and 4.9%. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the Composite CPI, CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 5.7%, 5.7%, 5.8% and 5.5% respectively in the first eleven months of 2008 over a year earlier.
For the 3 months ended November 2008, the Composite CPI rose by 2.6% over a year earlier, while the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 0.1%, 3.4% and 4.4% respectively. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures were 5.9%, 5.9%, 5.9% and 5.8% respectively.
For the 12 months ended November 2008, the Composite CPI was on average 4.4% higher than in the preceding 12-month period. The respective increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 3.8%, 4.7% and 4.8%. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures were 5.5%, 5.5%, 5.6% and 5.4% respectively.
Commentary
A Government spokesman said that headline consumer price inflation rose back in November from the low level in October, as the one-off effect of Government's payment of public housing rental dissipated. Yet, underlying inflation continued to ease, along with the fall-off of energy prices and tapering of food price inflation.
The spokesman added that looking ahead, the underlying inflation rate is expected to come down further, as price pressures have been receding amid the weak demand conditions, both externally and locally.
Further information
The CPIs and year-on-year rates of change at section level for November 2008 are shown in Table 1. The time series of movements of CPIs and the corresponding year-on-year rates of change upon removing the effects of one-off measures are shown in Table 2. The corresponding time series for the seasonally adjusted CPIs are shown in Table 3. The rates of change in the original and the seasonally adjusted Composite CPI are presented graphically in Chart 1.
Users can download the November 2008 issue of the Monthly Report on the Consumer Price Index free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/index.jsp). Print version of this publication is available for sale at HK$49 per issue. Purchase can be done in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address: 19/F Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel.: 2582 3025) or through mail order by returning a completed order form which can be downloaded from the C&SD's website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat/mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp). Print version of this publication is also available for sale online at the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.bookstore.gov.hk).
For enquiries about the CPIs, please contact the Consumer Price Index Section of the C&SD at telephone no. 2805 6403 or email address (cpi@censtatd.gov.hk).
Ends/Monday, December 22, 2008
Issued at HKT 16:31
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